Insights on Spot Uranium and Term Uranium Price | Anna Bryndza and Jimmy Connor
Summary
Market Outlook: The spot uranium market has seen a 10% increase in volume compared to last year, with utilities showing increased participation, indicating a healthy and supportive market environment.
Term Market Dynamics: The term uranium market appears anemic with 45 million pounds year-to-date, but potential utility interest could bring totals closer to last year's figures, depending on large utility purchases.
Conversion Challenges: Conversion remains the weakest link in the fuel cycle, with strong long-term prices but delays in investment decisions for new capacity, highlighting concerns for utilities.
Enrichment Sector: The enrichment sector is rebalancing post-2022, with significant capacity expansions by key players like Orano and Urenco, while geopolitical tensions have reduced competition, creating a duopoly.
Geopolitical Impacts: The geopolitical landscape, particularly the alliances between Russia, China, and India, could impact the uranium supply chain, with Central Asian producers like Kazakhstan navigating complex diplomatic relationships.
Long-term Price Projections: Anya projects a conservative increase in long-term uranium prices to $83, emphasizing the need for a sustainable industry with stable prices, despite the potential for upward market movement.
Industry Warning: UXC's editorial warns the industry not to take the uranium market for granted, highlighting uncovered demand and urging timely action on uranium coverage.
Transcript
[Music] [Music] Anya, thank you very much for joining us today. You've been with UXC for 18 years now, and you've been coming to the World Nuclear Symposium for a similar amount of time. And I'm kind of curious to hear what your thoughts are and how things have changed just in the last few years from when you first started coming here. >> Well, the exciting part, first of all, thank you for inviting me. Really excited to to be joining you for this conversation. I think the exciting part is new faces. For several years, we were all here. No, we all knew each other. There was no need to take business cards. I had to reprint a new box just for this year. um so many new people um in the room, a lot of investor interest and a lot of folks that are um I found especially interesting a lot of folks who were here um 18 years ago for the first nuclear renaissance took a break and are coming back to look at the nuclear um energy once again. So um that's that's the most exciting part. Of course, always good to see old friends, but uh meeting new people is is is good for the industry. >> And they keep changing the venue. It gets larger and larger every year. >> Absolutely. Um so it's uh we we do we I project we need even more space next year. So >> so UXC offers many different services to both the uranium and also the nuclear energy services or sectors and a big one is price forecasting and that's what I want to have a conversation with you on and I want to hit on all aspects of the fuel cycle spot term enrichment conversion and why don't we just spot start with the spot market. How would you characterize the spot market year-to- date in 2025? >> The spot market is always a good good solid place to start. Um, so we're at so far we are um about at uh 33 million pounds. Um, and when I think about the spot market, I like to compare it to the previous year because we know what last year looked like. Um so um last year at about this time um and I I took a peek uh at my numbers uh um uh this morning uh we were at 30 million pounds. So that gives you that we're roughly sort of 10% above uh but about in line. So my question for myself uh is whether or not sort of looking at total volumes whether we're going to hit 50 million pounds which is sort of average um number for the spot market transactions for the year. Looks like we're we're have a pretty decent chance to have sort of a a pretty solid year. Um but I will say that numbers only if you look at the totals they they hide sort of a deeper story about the trends in the market. Uh, one thing that I would um I would say that as far as um investor um financial um interests such as purchases by spot and and other entities roughly in line with last year. Uh but what we do see um so no change there. Uh but we do see um utility interest uh and utilities coming back to the spot market which is uh in a significantly larger um manner than they participated last year which is good. we do need enduser participation and in fact uh not only the utilities purchased more in the spot. Um they also um the numbers some of the trader purchases was on behalf of the utilities to carry that material into the forward years. So we we are marking a a return a a small still still yet a trickle but a return of carry trade. So that's linking all the years and the markets which is very healthy and very supportive for the spot market. >> And you said the utilities are more prominent this year than past years. Why? >> Um it's various reasons. Not a single sort of big answer. Um one is you know opportunistic. So if the if the spot uh market softens certainly the interest picks up uh you know some discretionary buying um some to to plug various uh little needs here and there. Um but uh it's it's not necessarily some uh you know there's not necessarily a big explanation for it. uh but they do see you know the fact that when the spot market is significantly above term that means the utilities retreat but any softening means the utilities are looking back as as something that that presents good opportunities be it for inventory buying be it for for needs to carry forward >> so let's talk about the term market now and last year we had 110 million pounds this year we're at 45 million pounds year to date how would you characterize this market. >> Yeah, the numbers we have so far uh and given the fact that we're entering September, the market looks a little anemic, doesn't it? Um it started off quite uh uh it started off quite slow. We have seen a bit of a an uptick in utility interest just prior to to coming to the WNA. So So we've had sort of a mini waves of of requests and some contracting. Um I would predict um within UXC we keep tabs of potential interest. I think that we are marking as of the moment potentials not necessarily that they will realize that could bring our if all come through could bring the mark the the totals um close to last year u we might of course fall short um but I would say that one of the things that um of course the numbers often time depend on large utility uh purchases so um if you have big players in the market they that signed large contracts then you might have quite large spikes. So any kind of wave of uh buying from the likes of China um signing large contracts it it will u move the numbers as well. Uh but but I do anticipate continued utility interest in the long-term market um for the remainder of the year and going into 2026. >> And so if we assume 45 million is the right number right now that means you anticipate a lot of action in the next few months. Um I think there is I think there's potential for that. Whether or not it will materialize it it it is yet you know it depends. Uh it's just our um projections of of of um the timing of some of the FFPS and based on the needs and and and insights from from the utility buyers. >> So let's talk about enrichment and conversion. Now these are other important aspects of the fuel cycle. How would you define them? Um well conversion you know I think everyone agrees it's the weakest link. We already established that. Um nobody disagrees with with that statement. Um what we are seeing in conversion is um the long-term price continues to remain very strong. Uh but the most important aspect about conversion and is the fact that we still have not seen any firm um investment decisions regarding either new capacity such as Springfields um or um GLE's um uh PL plant um or expansion um such as uh for example by Converdine. So the delay in reaching these investment decisions um is certainly something that's uh a concern for the utilities um and um my hope is to see by the end of 25 going at least in you know within the first quarter of 26 uh that some final decisions are made that would allow for that capacity to come online um around the turn of the decade. um because uh uh it is it is quite vital that we see new um uh conversion capacity. In the meantime, everybody is doing a great job on um uh production side. All three converters are are doing actually phenomenal job. Uh but of course, as anything with with conversion, we're kind of keeping our fingers crossed that there's no production disruptions. The industry has um you know, it's it's its complex plans to operate. um anybody who thinks conversion is easy just because it is um you know a chemical process is is certainly quite wrong. So we are just you know let's keep our our toes and our fingers crossed and and and and cheer for for the converters to to continue their good job. >> And before we touch on enrichment when you say conversion is the weakest link that's because the west or utilities are so reliant on Russia for conversion capacity. So you know the story of conversion really started changing in 2014. So in 2014 you had a situation we had we always had such an overcapacity in conversion and uh in fact I remember the the times when when conversion was almost almost free. Um so if somebody had UF6 and they wanted to unlock that U308 it would be given away uh virtually free. But in 2014 um there was this realization we have too much um capacity. Um so two plants shut down. One in Russia actually their their largest uh plan that accounted for 60% of capacity and one in in Springfields in the UK here. Um and then um we still were at at large over capacity and in fact secondary supplies and conversion accounted for more than half of supplies that were in the market. Um so we did have a decision by um Honeywell to shut down the metropolis plan and what that shutdown um resulted is in this absorbing of all this inventory that was heavily overhanging the market. So as a result we're sort of in this rebalanced market without um all of this excess um that is overhanging. That means should there be a supply disruption of any kind, we don't have all this stuff that would cushion um the blow. So we we certainly um we're certainly in much balanced market, much tighter market um without that excess capacity or those heavy inventories that were um that were sort of uh safeguarding um any any kind of disruption. >> And remind me again, Russia is responsible for how much of global capacity? I don't recall as to the the exact number but Russia has uh primary sources of conversion and they also use their enrichment capacity um in order to produce um UF6 through underfeeding and tales reenrichment. So they have sort of these two flows uh of uh of conversion capacity. So they have the direct one and indirect uh as well. And it's it's notable but Russia is not um does not recall that Russia does not sell conversion on its own. So um I don't think there was ever a Russian contract that it was just for conversion services. So Russia if um if it does place conversion it is part of a packaged product either together with its enrichment part of EUP or part of their fabricated fuel. So conversion for Russia is just an intermediary step and not a focus of their um of their industry. >> Understood. And what about enrichment? What can you tell us about that sector? >> Well, enrichment is in a very uh this the enrichment sector is definitely undergoing a process of rebalancing. Um we had a 2022 big turning year without any doubt for the entire uh nuclear industry. I would say that uh Russia's invasion in Ukraine that this is just a step back. I would I would say that it is on par if with Fukushima as far as the impact on on on our industry. Um so the impact is is is significant. It rewrote completely the the supply demand the market fundamentals um and changed it. So we within UXC just don't look at the entirety of the global market um on the demand and supply side. We we look at the open markets and and the supply that's available there. Um the enrichers definitely so you know you it's it's a it's a small group of people at least for now a lot of aspiring entrance. Um but uh both Urano and Iran made quick moves in terms of capacity expansion. Kudos to them. It they had uh virtually no uh centrifuge production at the time with the wind down of ETC. So big investments um big moves and in and expansions that were fast. Um um and they did make adjustments in the in the way that their plants operated as well to unlock that primary uh SWO capacity. Um um so there's that But but at the same time where we are seeing tightness in the market, the utilities um ensure that they're covered for the next few years. Um but going forward um there is a big question about while while we can we definitely can expect um Orana and Uranko to to uh gradually add some extra capacity there's definitely a desire and recognition that a healthy market requires um a certain degree of competition and that competition has been reduced um with exit um of Russia. So you went through from this uh competitive igopoly uh towards a towards a duopoly um with marginal participation from Russia and China and and going forward uh there is a clear desire by the end users to to to inject a bit of competition. So so there's a lot of newcomers uh in enrichment sector which is not um something that we could have anticipated um just a couple of years ago. In the past few years, utilities have been more focused on conversion and enrichment, less so on uranium. Do you think that's still the case or is it starting to shift now more toward the acquisition of uranium? >> You're definitely right. The priorities were on the enrichment and conversion and the reason is for that tighter market, reduced number of players uh concerns to to put these to put all of these um things in in in place before um before uranium is is procured. There is a um there's definitely a lot of attention that's being paid to uranium uh from strategic uh standpoint. Desire to encourage junior uh producers to bring new production online. Uh desire to layer in some coverage. Um but I would say that it has always been the case that uh uranium there's more players in uranium market and there's different ways to procure the pounds. So I would say that the level of concern about uranium it's not that it doesn't exist. Absolutely uranium is getting the attention uh from from the uh from the utilities but it will it it has always been less than about this more about conversion and enrichment. I would say that it would continue to be the same simply because there's more options and more solutions um that can be put in place. So, we can't have a discussion on uranium without talking about geopolitics. And this is one of the things that makes mining so interesting and also challenging. And I want to bring up recent events. China just had a military parade. They had heads of states from 26 different countries, but the most noticeable ones in my opinion were, of course, China, the host country, but also Russia and India. And all three of these countries have very aggressive nuclear energy programs. and aspirations. Uh if you look out 5 years or 10 years, this new alliance that's forming with these countries, how do you think that might impact the fuel cycle and how will it impact Western utilities? >> Well, um there's definitely rebalancing in the geop in in the uh in in geopolitics. Um Russia, recall that um Russia, China, um India and Brazil are part of a block called bricks and that blog is definitely getting a lot of a lot of um traction uh they are seeing each other as um as allies um um particularly for example India was when you look beyond uh nuclear and you look at at oil and gas uh India has become the number one buyer of Russian oil uh in very very quickly and increased uh its imports. Um so there's definitely um there's definitely historic alliances and and we will see um some some of this um uh posturing. Um I I would imagine that one of the things that that folks uh are um are asking and and I imagine that's you're implying this is the fact that um Kazakhstan and Usbekistsan um are located in a very tough region with very big neighbors, Russia on one side and and China on the other side and and um what happens to that to that supply um you know Kazakhstan has been having to balance um it's uh and Usbekistan as well. So I'm saying these both of these large central Asian producers um have had to deal with with these big um uh neighbors for quite some time. So it is a delicate diplomatic act and it is also um this idea of how to have these different vectors in diplomacy in order to ensure that you're not beholden to any of the any of the um uh either of the two two big neighbors that they can be quite overwhelming. Um so and this was also reflected in um if you look at the geographic breakdown that Kazadrom uh puts forward in their in their reports um uh they are quite cautious about ensuring a certain degree of diversification and and so in in many ways um this um this uh distribution and diversification is uh reflective of of their um of their foreign policy as well. I would expect their desire to do so um going forward UXC recently published a report and it was titled the calm before the storm and I'm curious about the title and maybe you can just give us a gist of that article. >> Yes, I think you're referring to an editorial we did in the UX weekly. I do give credit um for that to uh UXC president Jonathan Hinsay. Um and um um it it was um a bit of you know we we do put forward not just the analysis but a lot of the times our opinion. So it was just it was a a mere couple of pages but it was a bit of a uh our take on the long-term uranium market and the indication about the fact that um there's definitely upward pressure um that that folks should not be relaxed and and take uranium um industry for granted. Um and and there is um uncovered um uranium uh demand um uh that needs uh that folks need to to take action on. And u it was a bit a bit of um uh a bit of a warning um to to to the industry just to uh not not to delay action on some of the uranium um coverage. And so if I push you and I try to uh get some numbers out of you, where do you see the term price going a year from now when we're having a conversation here at the symposium? >> All right. If I take my UXC hat off and and I I just I just stand here as Anya. Um um this is not a UXC forecast. I just want to be um careful and uh and maybe we'll regroup a year from now. See see how I do. Um, I would project um I'd say let's try for 83 long-term price and um in 80 in the spot >> and um >> those are pretty conservative numbers. I think we have it is very easy to forget um about the fact that um um about the fact that we gained a lot in terms of the prices in uranium um and that uh you know it's >> it's always easy to to wish for the sky and the moon but what we really are looking for is a sustainable industry with sustainable prices. Um and um I' I'd say um you know looking at the looking for the last pound that that this industry needs and the costs um of this pound and um I' I'd say it's quite reason it's quite reasonable number in in my view. Um but um you know it's um it's it still is uh you know spot spot market is always inventorydriven market. Um there is still a good bit of material out there. So we'll we'll decide it will continue to be quite volatile. Um but uh for the term uh we're at 80 right now. When we're saying 80 it's a base uh in a base escalated contract. This is the base number that is escalated. So your delivery is not at $80. your delivery is um is at a you know depending on on where that is. Uh so a lot of the times people don't really understand what our long-term indicator means but it doesn't mean what the price of which somebody is buying. It is just that fixed portion. Um but uh uh uh and as a as a matter of fact there's a big shift towards market related contracting. Right now there is a recognition that um uh there's a belief um that uh the market has upward potential uh which it does and um um market related means that you're you know you're you're putting some kind of parameters floors and ceilings and but you do have ability to you will move depending at the time of delivery where the spot price is and um the suppliers are definitely wanting to capture that upward momentum. So we'll we'll see. Um I am projecting personally Anya not as UXCe um an upward movement in in the term price um just throughout a number of of 83 but um I think it is a steady it points to a steady upward increase. >> Well great insights and I want to thank you very much for spending time with us today and I know you're very busy here. You got a lot of meetings going on so I don't want to keep you. Enjoy your time in London. Oh >> thank you so much Jimmy. [Music]
Insights on Spot Uranium and Term Uranium Price | Anna Bryndza and Jimmy Connor
Summary
Transcript
[Music] [Music] Anya, thank you very much for joining us today. You've been with UXC for 18 years now, and you've been coming to the World Nuclear Symposium for a similar amount of time. And I'm kind of curious to hear what your thoughts are and how things have changed just in the last few years from when you first started coming here. >> Well, the exciting part, first of all, thank you for inviting me. Really excited to to be joining you for this conversation. I think the exciting part is new faces. For several years, we were all here. No, we all knew each other. There was no need to take business cards. I had to reprint a new box just for this year. um so many new people um in the room, a lot of investor interest and a lot of folks that are um I found especially interesting a lot of folks who were here um 18 years ago for the first nuclear renaissance took a break and are coming back to look at the nuclear um energy once again. So um that's that's the most exciting part. Of course, always good to see old friends, but uh meeting new people is is is good for the industry. >> And they keep changing the venue. It gets larger and larger every year. >> Absolutely. Um so it's uh we we do we I project we need even more space next year. So >> so UXC offers many different services to both the uranium and also the nuclear energy services or sectors and a big one is price forecasting and that's what I want to have a conversation with you on and I want to hit on all aspects of the fuel cycle spot term enrichment conversion and why don't we just spot start with the spot market. How would you characterize the spot market year-to- date in 2025? >> The spot market is always a good good solid place to start. Um, so we're at so far we are um about at uh 33 million pounds. Um, and when I think about the spot market, I like to compare it to the previous year because we know what last year looked like. Um so um last year at about this time um and I I took a peek uh at my numbers uh um uh this morning uh we were at 30 million pounds. So that gives you that we're roughly sort of 10% above uh but about in line. So my question for myself uh is whether or not sort of looking at total volumes whether we're going to hit 50 million pounds which is sort of average um number for the spot market transactions for the year. Looks like we're we're have a pretty decent chance to have sort of a a pretty solid year. Um but I will say that numbers only if you look at the totals they they hide sort of a deeper story about the trends in the market. Uh, one thing that I would um I would say that as far as um investor um financial um interests such as purchases by spot and and other entities roughly in line with last year. Uh but what we do see um so no change there. Uh but we do see um utility interest uh and utilities coming back to the spot market which is uh in a significantly larger um manner than they participated last year which is good. we do need enduser participation and in fact uh not only the utilities purchased more in the spot. Um they also um the numbers some of the trader purchases was on behalf of the utilities to carry that material into the forward years. So we we are marking a a return a a small still still yet a trickle but a return of carry trade. So that's linking all the years and the markets which is very healthy and very supportive for the spot market. >> And you said the utilities are more prominent this year than past years. Why? >> Um it's various reasons. Not a single sort of big answer. Um one is you know opportunistic. So if the if the spot uh market softens certainly the interest picks up uh you know some discretionary buying um some to to plug various uh little needs here and there. Um but uh it's it's not necessarily some uh you know there's not necessarily a big explanation for it. uh but they do see you know the fact that when the spot market is significantly above term that means the utilities retreat but any softening means the utilities are looking back as as something that that presents good opportunities be it for inventory buying be it for for needs to carry forward >> so let's talk about the term market now and last year we had 110 million pounds this year we're at 45 million pounds year to date how would you characterize this market. >> Yeah, the numbers we have so far uh and given the fact that we're entering September, the market looks a little anemic, doesn't it? Um it started off quite uh uh it started off quite slow. We have seen a bit of a an uptick in utility interest just prior to to coming to the WNA. So So we've had sort of a mini waves of of requests and some contracting. Um I would predict um within UXC we keep tabs of potential interest. I think that we are marking as of the moment potentials not necessarily that they will realize that could bring our if all come through could bring the mark the the totals um close to last year u we might of course fall short um but I would say that one of the things that um of course the numbers often time depend on large utility uh purchases so um if you have big players in the market they that signed large contracts then you might have quite large spikes. So any kind of wave of uh buying from the likes of China um signing large contracts it it will u move the numbers as well. Uh but but I do anticipate continued utility interest in the long-term market um for the remainder of the year and going into 2026. >> And so if we assume 45 million is the right number right now that means you anticipate a lot of action in the next few months. Um I think there is I think there's potential for that. Whether or not it will materialize it it it is yet you know it depends. Uh it's just our um projections of of of um the timing of some of the FFPS and based on the needs and and and insights from from the utility buyers. >> So let's talk about enrichment and conversion. Now these are other important aspects of the fuel cycle. How would you define them? Um well conversion you know I think everyone agrees it's the weakest link. We already established that. Um nobody disagrees with with that statement. Um what we are seeing in conversion is um the long-term price continues to remain very strong. Uh but the most important aspect about conversion and is the fact that we still have not seen any firm um investment decisions regarding either new capacity such as Springfields um or um GLE's um uh PL plant um or expansion um such as uh for example by Converdine. So the delay in reaching these investment decisions um is certainly something that's uh a concern for the utilities um and um my hope is to see by the end of 25 going at least in you know within the first quarter of 26 uh that some final decisions are made that would allow for that capacity to come online um around the turn of the decade. um because uh uh it is it is quite vital that we see new um uh conversion capacity. In the meantime, everybody is doing a great job on um uh production side. All three converters are are doing actually phenomenal job. Uh but of course, as anything with with conversion, we're kind of keeping our fingers crossed that there's no production disruptions. The industry has um you know, it's it's its complex plans to operate. um anybody who thinks conversion is easy just because it is um you know a chemical process is is certainly quite wrong. So we are just you know let's keep our our toes and our fingers crossed and and and and cheer for for the converters to to continue their good job. >> And before we touch on enrichment when you say conversion is the weakest link that's because the west or utilities are so reliant on Russia for conversion capacity. So you know the story of conversion really started changing in 2014. So in 2014 you had a situation we had we always had such an overcapacity in conversion and uh in fact I remember the the times when when conversion was almost almost free. Um so if somebody had UF6 and they wanted to unlock that U308 it would be given away uh virtually free. But in 2014 um there was this realization we have too much um capacity. Um so two plants shut down. One in Russia actually their their largest uh plan that accounted for 60% of capacity and one in in Springfields in the UK here. Um and then um we still were at at large over capacity and in fact secondary supplies and conversion accounted for more than half of supplies that were in the market. Um so we did have a decision by um Honeywell to shut down the metropolis plan and what that shutdown um resulted is in this absorbing of all this inventory that was heavily overhanging the market. So as a result we're sort of in this rebalanced market without um all of this excess um that is overhanging. That means should there be a supply disruption of any kind, we don't have all this stuff that would cushion um the blow. So we we certainly um we're certainly in much balanced market, much tighter market um without that excess capacity or those heavy inventories that were um that were sort of uh safeguarding um any any kind of disruption. >> And remind me again, Russia is responsible for how much of global capacity? I don't recall as to the the exact number but Russia has uh primary sources of conversion and they also use their enrichment capacity um in order to produce um UF6 through underfeeding and tales reenrichment. So they have sort of these two flows uh of uh of conversion capacity. So they have the direct one and indirect uh as well. And it's it's notable but Russia is not um does not recall that Russia does not sell conversion on its own. So um I don't think there was ever a Russian contract that it was just for conversion services. So Russia if um if it does place conversion it is part of a packaged product either together with its enrichment part of EUP or part of their fabricated fuel. So conversion for Russia is just an intermediary step and not a focus of their um of their industry. >> Understood. And what about enrichment? What can you tell us about that sector? >> Well, enrichment is in a very uh this the enrichment sector is definitely undergoing a process of rebalancing. Um we had a 2022 big turning year without any doubt for the entire uh nuclear industry. I would say that uh Russia's invasion in Ukraine that this is just a step back. I would I would say that it is on par if with Fukushima as far as the impact on on on our industry. Um so the impact is is is significant. It rewrote completely the the supply demand the market fundamentals um and changed it. So we within UXC just don't look at the entirety of the global market um on the demand and supply side. We we look at the open markets and and the supply that's available there. Um the enrichers definitely so you know you it's it's a it's a small group of people at least for now a lot of aspiring entrance. Um but uh both Urano and Iran made quick moves in terms of capacity expansion. Kudos to them. It they had uh virtually no uh centrifuge production at the time with the wind down of ETC. So big investments um big moves and in and expansions that were fast. Um um and they did make adjustments in the in the way that their plants operated as well to unlock that primary uh SWO capacity. Um um so there's that But but at the same time where we are seeing tightness in the market, the utilities um ensure that they're covered for the next few years. Um but going forward um there is a big question about while while we can we definitely can expect um Orana and Uranko to to uh gradually add some extra capacity there's definitely a desire and recognition that a healthy market requires um a certain degree of competition and that competition has been reduced um with exit um of Russia. So you went through from this uh competitive igopoly uh towards a towards a duopoly um with marginal participation from Russia and China and and going forward uh there is a clear desire by the end users to to to inject a bit of competition. So so there's a lot of newcomers uh in enrichment sector which is not um something that we could have anticipated um just a couple of years ago. In the past few years, utilities have been more focused on conversion and enrichment, less so on uranium. Do you think that's still the case or is it starting to shift now more toward the acquisition of uranium? >> You're definitely right. The priorities were on the enrichment and conversion and the reason is for that tighter market, reduced number of players uh concerns to to put these to put all of these um things in in in place before um before uranium is is procured. There is a um there's definitely a lot of attention that's being paid to uranium uh from strategic uh standpoint. Desire to encourage junior uh producers to bring new production online. Uh desire to layer in some coverage. Um but I would say that it has always been the case that uh uranium there's more players in uranium market and there's different ways to procure the pounds. So I would say that the level of concern about uranium it's not that it doesn't exist. Absolutely uranium is getting the attention uh from from the uh from the utilities but it will it it has always been less than about this more about conversion and enrichment. I would say that it would continue to be the same simply because there's more options and more solutions um that can be put in place. So, we can't have a discussion on uranium without talking about geopolitics. And this is one of the things that makes mining so interesting and also challenging. And I want to bring up recent events. China just had a military parade. They had heads of states from 26 different countries, but the most noticeable ones in my opinion were, of course, China, the host country, but also Russia and India. And all three of these countries have very aggressive nuclear energy programs. and aspirations. Uh if you look out 5 years or 10 years, this new alliance that's forming with these countries, how do you think that might impact the fuel cycle and how will it impact Western utilities? >> Well, um there's definitely rebalancing in the geop in in the uh in in geopolitics. Um Russia, recall that um Russia, China, um India and Brazil are part of a block called bricks and that blog is definitely getting a lot of a lot of um traction uh they are seeing each other as um as allies um um particularly for example India was when you look beyond uh nuclear and you look at at oil and gas uh India has become the number one buyer of Russian oil uh in very very quickly and increased uh its imports. Um so there's definitely um there's definitely historic alliances and and we will see um some some of this um uh posturing. Um I I would imagine that one of the things that that folks uh are um are asking and and I imagine that's you're implying this is the fact that um Kazakhstan and Usbekistsan um are located in a very tough region with very big neighbors, Russia on one side and and China on the other side and and um what happens to that to that supply um you know Kazakhstan has been having to balance um it's uh and Usbekistan as well. So I'm saying these both of these large central Asian producers um have had to deal with with these big um uh neighbors for quite some time. So it is a delicate diplomatic act and it is also um this idea of how to have these different vectors in diplomacy in order to ensure that you're not beholden to any of the any of the um uh either of the two two big neighbors that they can be quite overwhelming. Um so and this was also reflected in um if you look at the geographic breakdown that Kazadrom uh puts forward in their in their reports um uh they are quite cautious about ensuring a certain degree of diversification and and so in in many ways um this um this uh distribution and diversification is uh reflective of of their um of their foreign policy as well. I would expect their desire to do so um going forward UXC recently published a report and it was titled the calm before the storm and I'm curious about the title and maybe you can just give us a gist of that article. >> Yes, I think you're referring to an editorial we did in the UX weekly. I do give credit um for that to uh UXC president Jonathan Hinsay. Um and um um it it was um a bit of you know we we do put forward not just the analysis but a lot of the times our opinion. So it was just it was a a mere couple of pages but it was a bit of a uh our take on the long-term uranium market and the indication about the fact that um there's definitely upward pressure um that that folks should not be relaxed and and take uranium um industry for granted. Um and and there is um uncovered um uranium uh demand um uh that needs uh that folks need to to take action on. And u it was a bit a bit of um uh a bit of a warning um to to to the industry just to uh not not to delay action on some of the uranium um coverage. And so if I push you and I try to uh get some numbers out of you, where do you see the term price going a year from now when we're having a conversation here at the symposium? >> All right. If I take my UXC hat off and and I I just I just stand here as Anya. Um um this is not a UXC forecast. I just want to be um careful and uh and maybe we'll regroup a year from now. See see how I do. Um, I would project um I'd say let's try for 83 long-term price and um in 80 in the spot >> and um >> those are pretty conservative numbers. I think we have it is very easy to forget um about the fact that um um about the fact that we gained a lot in terms of the prices in uranium um and that uh you know it's >> it's always easy to to wish for the sky and the moon but what we really are looking for is a sustainable industry with sustainable prices. Um and um I' I'd say um you know looking at the looking for the last pound that that this industry needs and the costs um of this pound and um I' I'd say it's quite reason it's quite reasonable number in in my view. Um but um you know it's um it's it still is uh you know spot spot market is always inventorydriven market. Um there is still a good bit of material out there. So we'll we'll decide it will continue to be quite volatile. Um but uh for the term uh we're at 80 right now. When we're saying 80 it's a base uh in a base escalated contract. This is the base number that is escalated. So your delivery is not at $80. your delivery is um is at a you know depending on on where that is. Uh so a lot of the times people don't really understand what our long-term indicator means but it doesn't mean what the price of which somebody is buying. It is just that fixed portion. Um but uh uh uh and as a as a matter of fact there's a big shift towards market related contracting. Right now there is a recognition that um uh there's a belief um that uh the market has upward potential uh which it does and um um market related means that you're you know you're you're putting some kind of parameters floors and ceilings and but you do have ability to you will move depending at the time of delivery where the spot price is and um the suppliers are definitely wanting to capture that upward momentum. So we'll we'll see. Um I am projecting personally Anya not as UXCe um an upward movement in in the term price um just throughout a number of of 83 but um I think it is a steady it points to a steady upward increase. >> Well great insights and I want to thank you very much for spending time with us today and I know you're very busy here. You got a lot of meetings going on so I don't want to keep you. Enjoy your time in London. Oh >> thank you so much Jimmy. [Music]