Institutional ticker directory tracking stock mentions, long/short ideas, and high-conviction pitches extracted from quarterly hedge fund letters.
| Ticker | Company | Sector | Industry | Pitches | Stance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fund / Manager | Thesis Excerpt | Stance | Period / Date | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|
13D Activist Fund Ken Squire | “Money Forward is a fintech and SaaS platform focused on business and personal finance software. Generating 80% of its revenue from corporate clients, the Company is a leading developer of cloud-based applications for back-office operations in accounting, finance, HR, legal, and information systems, primarily targeting small and medium-sized enterprises (SME) in Japan. For individuals, the Company operates the largest personal finance management and asset management apps in Japan, with over 17 million users and 600,000 paying customers, contributing 11.7% of its FY24 revenue. In addition, the Company also provides financial services to regional financial institutions and operates the, HIRAC FUND, a venture capital firm targeting seed and early-stage startups. The secular opportunity for digitization of back-office processes remains extremely large in Japan. Today, between 30-40% of Japanese SMEs still use spreadsheets and traditional paper-based processes instead of any sort of accounting software. Money Forward estimates that their total addressable market for back-office SaaS for SMEs and midmarket companies to be over ¥2 trillion, but currently only serves about 10% of the potential customer base. This market is expected to continue to grow at 20%+ annually over the next three to five years, and Money Forward is in an excellent position to capture much of the market growth, boasting its status as the most recommended accounting software by Japanese accounting firms. Its accounting software has high incremental margins and high switching costs, resulting in a low overall churn rate under 1% and a stable revenue model with two-thirds of sales coming from recurring revenue. Given this tailwind, as well as the Japanese government's promotion of digital transformation and widespread adoption of Open API by banks, Money Forward is on the cusp of a business transformation characterized by an inflection in profitability. The Company has been growing sales at a 5-year CAGR of about 40% and is nearly break even in EBITDA. By FY28, the Company is targeting over ¥100 billion in net sales, EBITDA margins of +30%, and plans to rein in its SG&A and COGS to sales ratio from its current FY25 projections of 92-97% to 70% or less. On July 24, 2025, ValueAct Capital disclosed in a large shareholding report that they had accumulated a 5.62% position in the Company, making them one of Money Forward's top-five shareholders. ValueAct has a wealth of experience in helping tech companies on the cusp of a transformation towards realizing their full value and enhancing profitability (Recruit Holdings in Japan, Spotify and Salesforce elsewhere, among others). As such, we see two primary levers here for value creation: cost management and enhancing the Company's pricing strategy. Money Forward has never been profitable, as it has been investing in top-line growth, but is now at the point of moving from a hypergrowth company to a sustainable growth company. This should be a company where the Rule of 40+ applies (EBITDA margin plus sales growth equals or exceeds 40). If able to continue growing sales at a 20% CAGR, then its EBITDA margins should be at least 20%, and ValueAct has experience with this as an active shareholder or board member at companies like Spotify and Salesforce. The Company has already laid out ambitious plans to continue growth while substantially reducing its operating leverage, so ValueAct is pushing on an open door here. With Money Forward's 30% EBITDA margin target, the Company could even achieve a Rule of 50 by 2028. ValueAct has an earned reputation as a collaborative and amicable activist who has been uniquely able to work with management teams in Japan despite being a Western hedge fund. There is no reason why this situation should be any different. The Company has a high-quality management team and enviable corporate governance profile with a majority of outside directors (very rare in Japan); 20% ownership by management, the Board, and founding members (16% ownership for CEO Yosuke Tsuji); almost half of its shares owned by foreigners, and many of its leaders are young, ambitious, educated outside of Japan, and have a more global outlook.” | NEUTRAL | Q2 2026 Aug 7, 2026 | View Pitch |
Each excerpt above is the manager's commentary on this ticker specifically. The full letter has the rest of their portfolio thinking, risk discussion, and broader institutional context.
