Riot is positioned to capitalize on the massive AI/HPC data center opportunity as AI companies scale capacity exponentially. The company's sites are well-suited for AI training, inference, edge computing, and various data center applications, with power being the biggest constraint for AI buildout. Riot's transformation from bitcoin mining to AI/HPC data centers represents tremendous value creation potential. The company has 1.7GW of fully available power at prime locations that could generate over $1.6 billion of annual EBITDA if monetized at recent precedent transaction rates. Cryptocurrency mining companies have become attractive sources of near-term power capacity for AI/HPC companies. From August to year-end 2025, four crypto mining companies announced AI/HPC deals for approximately 1.4GW of gross capacity at attractive leasing rates.
AI, defense, Mean reversion, small caps, technology, value
AI represents a consequential technological shift reshaping business and consumer behaviors. The AI-driven capex cycle is expected to persist over the next 12-16 months. The manager sees a barbell opportunity in owning clear AI winners alongside companies mislabeled as AI losers. Smaller-cap companies offer outsized opportunity due to their ability to pivot quickly in a period of rapidly increasing dynamism. Over the past two years, multi-baggers among smaller-cap names have been roughly double the 20-year average due to their organizational flexibility. The definition of defense is expanding beyond traditional military applications. Robotics, AI, cybersecurity, and data infrastructure are now central components of national security as the peace dividend and security provided by Pax Americana are eroding.
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