| ANNUALIZED SINCE INCEPTION | QUARTERLY | YTD |
|---|---|---|
| - | - | - |
Rodrigo delivered a mixed Q1 2026 performance, benefiting from European AI semiconductor positions (Suss, Soitec, Aixtron) and oil futures during the Iran conflict, though he sold AI positions too early due to valuation concerns. The historic AI rally created challenging market conditions where everything became correlated to AI exposure, forcing him to sell longs and initiate shorts as valuations stretched beyond reasonable future returns. He sees current AI semiconductors as discounting best-case scenarios three years out. The manager is pivoting toward quality value opportunities, particularly Visa and Mastercard at compressed multiples, while maintaining conviction in European defense spending driven by geopolitical wake-up calls. He views European companies as attractively priced off free cash flow rather than narratives, despite the region's structural challenges. Software faces existential threats from AI commoditization. His strategy emphasizes selective positioning to generate returns regardless of whether AI continues its vertical ascent or faces technical correction, keeping AI exposure limited while focusing on multi-year themes like European defense modernization.
Focus on value opportunities in quality companies with compressed multiples while avoiding overvalued AI plays, with selective exposure to European defense and oil-related positions.
Manager expects AI correlation dynamics to intensify if stocks continue at current pace, making environment challenging for stock picking. Sees value in European companies and defense spending trend with years to run. Bullish on AI longer term but believes semiconductors discount significant future growth.
| Date | Letter | Tickers | Keywords | Pitches | Quick Takes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 17 2026 | 2026 Q1 | AMD, ASAN, CRM, CSU.TO, INTC, MA, MNDY, MSFT, PATH, SAP, V | AI, defense, Europe, oil, semiconductors, software, valuation | - | Rodrigo rode European AI semiconductors and oil futures during Iran conflict but sold AI positions as valuations became unsustainable. Now focusing on quality value plays like Visa/Mastercard and European defense spending while avoiding overheated AI names. Sees software under existential threat from AI commoditization. Positioning for returns in either AI continuation or correction scenario. |
| Jan 28 2026 | 2025 Q4 | ARKK, CLS, KITS.TO, MSFT, NBIS, ORCL, QQQ, QURE, REGN, SLNO, SPY, STRL, TEVA, TGEN, TSSI, TWST, VRT, XOP | AI, Biotechnology, commodities, Fintech, gold, healthcare, oil |
KITS CN EMO CN |
Manager rebuilds confidence through selective stock picking while navigating extreme market bifurcation. Precious metals show bubble conditions reminiscent of 1970s, AI stocks corrected 50% before recovering. Closed unsuccessful AI shorts, added healthcare immunity plays TEVA/REGN, and new fintech position Figure Technologies bridging blockchain and loan securitization. Maintains disciplined approach avoiding macro timing. |
| Oct 2 2025 | 2025 Q3 | ABX, CLS, CONL, IJH, IREN, IWM, JOBY, MSFT, NBIS, NEM, ORCL, PLTR, RXST, SNAP, STRL, TGEN, TSSI, VRT | AI, Fed policy, Gold Miners, Long/Short, Risk Appetite, Shorts, Speculation | - | Rodrigo endured a brutal Q3 2025 as short positions in AI names and gold miners backfired spectacularly amid post-Jackson Hole speculation surge. Oracle's 40% jump on revenue forced capitulation on datacenter shorts. The manager learned painful lessons about US shorting dangers and plans to focus on longs while avoiding unlimited downside exposure. |
| Jul 8 2025 | 2025 Q2 | EVO.ST, IPG, RXST, WPP | AI, gaming, healthcare, Medical Devices, regulation, tariffs, technology, volatility |
RXST EVO SS RXST EVO.ST |
Strong Q2 performance amid extreme volatility, with SPX up 27% from lows. Portfolio focuses on contrarian opportunities: long RxSight's innovative medical device technology and Evolution Gaming's expected regulatory recovery, while shorting traditional advertising companies facing AI disruption. Despite bubble conditions emerging across markets, manager maintains conviction in beaten-down quality names with strong fundamentals. |
| Apr 3 2025 | 2025 Q1 | AMZN, COOP, CUBI, ENR.DE, GOOG, HNRG, HSBK.L, META, NVDA, OZK, PSIX, RDFN, RKT, SRC.L, SWI, TKA.DE | AI, banks, defense, Europe, megacaps, Trade Policy, value | - | European positioning and shorts benefited from Q4 mania reversal as AI/MAG7 declined. Trade war uncertainty threatens recession or slower growth. German defense spending drove profitable ThyssenKrupp trade. Post-correction opportunities emerging in US megacaps and AI energy plays. UK offers clearest value despite constraints. Markets lack broad bullish themes, requiring selective approach. |
| Jan 3 2025 | 2024 Q4 | AAPL, AMZN, APP, CIEN, CUBI, GOOGL, META, MSFT, NVDA, PFBC, PLTR, TMDX, TSLA | AI, banks, Biotech, Europe, semiconductors, technology, value | - | Value investor delivered 41% returns in 2024 despite October setbacks from Digital Value scandal and TMDX disappointment. Finds regional banks attractive post-Trump rally normalization. Extensively analyzes top tech valuations, questioning AI capex sustainability while acknowledging NVDA's growth story. Maintains disciplined approach focused on individual stock selection and improving short-side timing for 2025. |
| Oct 7 2024 | 2024 Q3 | ABT, APP, ARKK, ASTS, COOP, EW, HIFS, KRE, LUMN, MBIN, MDT, MEDP, PFBC, TMDX | Europe, financials, Medical Devices, Shorts, Tankers, trading, volatility | EW | Active trading quarter capitalizing on August volatility with opportunistic longs in Applovin and Transmedics, subsequently sold on bounce. Low net exposure via index shorts. Bullish on tankers due to sanctions enforcement potential, select financials despite KRE run-up, and Edwards Lifesciences as asymmetric medical device play post-guidance cut. |
| Apr 22 2024 | 2024 Q2 | AMC, ASML, AX, CIEN, CLS, COHR, CRH, FCNCA, GME, MBIN, MRX, PFBC, PSTG, QQQ, SPY, TBBK, V | Europe, financials, Long/Short, semiconductors, small caps, value | - | Rodrigo endured a frustrating Q2 with costly short sizing mistakes during the meme stock revival. He repositioned toward value opportunities in beaten-down banks, expecting yield curve normalization to drive margin recovery. The manager added quality compounders like Visa while maintaining undisclosed European small cap positions despite liquidity constraints forcing increased US market focus. |
| Apr 22 2024 | 2024 Q1 | AM.PA, APP, CHG.L, CLS, HO.PA, KNF, MRVI, ONT.L, OXB.L, PFE, PSTG, SMR.AX, TEP.PA, TMDX | Biotech, defense, Europe, growth, small caps, value | AM.PA | Rodrigo posted 19% Q1 returns running 150% net long across US growth and European value plays. Applovin led gains while European defense like Dassault Aviation offers compelling value amid rising EU defense spending. Post-Covid recovery names present opportunities as normal businesses stabilize. Shorts hurt performance, prompting smaller US short positions going forward. |
| QUARTER | THEMES | TAGS |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 Q1 |
AIManager rode European AI stocks like Suss, Soitec, and Aixtron but sold too soon due to valuation concerns. Describes the historic rally in semiconductors and AI as creating difficult market conditions where everything becomes correlated to AI exposure. Views current AI valuations as discounting best-case scenarios 3 years out. |
Semiconductors Photonics Valuation Europe Rally |
OilManager held net long oil futures position anticipating Iran conflict and Hormuz strait closure. Notes the market has become comfortable with the strait being closed for months, which he finds surreal. Oil positions helped performance in the first week of the quarter. |
Iran Hormuz Geopolitics Futures War | |
DefenseSees significant value in European defense stocks driven by wake-up call from US and trend toward bigger armies with national technologies and local supply chains. Prefers modern defense technologies like radars, drones, missiles and maritime robotics over traditional armored vehicles. |
Europe Technology Supply Chain Modernization | |
EuropeDespite acknowledging Europe's challenges including high taxes, growth-crippling policies, and missing the AI revolution, manager sees value in European companies priced off free cash flow rather than narratives. Notes decent datacenter pipeline and high AI usage penetration in European companies. |
Valuation FCF Datacenters Productivity | |
SemiconductorsParticipated in semiconductor rally through European names but notes the sector now discounts a lot of future growth. Mentions photonics and bottleneck companies seeing revenue increases by 2028 when Rubin configurations pick up. Views big cap AI semiconductor plays as too difficult after the recent run. |
Photonics Bottlenecks Revenue Timing | |
| 2025 Q4 |
AIAI infrastructure plays dominated 2025 returns with 65% of Russell 2000's return coming from AI infrastructure. The manager views this as a concentrated, singular bet on CAPEX spending by five companies building data centers. Questions the sustainability of this theme given its concentration and speculative nature. |
Infrastructure Data Centers CAPEX Concentration |
Small CapsSmall caps underperformed large caps in 2025's narrow market. The Russell 2000's returns were dominated by AI infrastructure and unprofitable companies, creating extreme bifurcation between quality and speculative stocks. Manager sees this as creating opportunities for active management in small caps. |
Russell 2000 Underperformance Quality Active Management | |
QualityQuality businesses trade at historically cheap multiples due to extreme valuation disparities between winners and losers. The manager emphasizes the bifurcation in performance between unprofitable stocks and quality stocks, suggesting quality is undervalued. |
Valuation Multiples Bifurcation Undervalued | |
ValueThe manager believes earnings are the long-term driver of stock prices and that the trade in unprofitable companies will ultimately reverse. This suggests a value-oriented approach will be rewarded as markets normalize from current extremes. |
Earnings Unprofitable Reversal Long-term | |
| 2025 Q3 |
AIManager attempted to short AI-related names believing the theme needed a rest, targeting low quality companies benefiting from datacenter capex but offering commoditizable services at high multiples. However, the market continued financing datacenter capex aggressively, forcing position closures after significant losses. |
Data Centers Capex Cloud Semiconductors Enterprise Software |
Gold MinersManager shorted gold miners on an overbought thesis, noting that miners like Barrick and Newmont trade at around 10x FCF using $4000/oz gold assumptions, suggesting extreme valuations in the sector. |
Gold Mining Commodities Valuation | |
Risk AppetiteStrong rally in most shorted stocks and speculative names after Jackson Hole speech created significant pressure on short positions. The market showed extreme risk-on behavior with profitless companies significantly outperforming profitable ones, as measured by IWM/IJH ratio. |
Short Interest Speculation Momentum Volatility | |
| 2025 Q2 |
AIManager believes AI content creation tools are becoming very good and accessible, creating a threat to traditional advertising companies. AI is disrupting ad creative generation which represents a $100BN profit pool, with companies like IPG and WPP vulnerable to margin compression as AI tools become widespread. |
Content Creation Advertising Disruption Margins Tools |
Medical DevicesFocus on RxSight's Light Adjustable Lens technology for cataract surgery, which offers superior customization and reduced side effects compared to traditional premium IOLs. The LAL system allows post-surgical adjustments using UV light, providing better outcomes than multifocal lenses with less glare and halos. |
Ophthalmology Cataracts Premium IOL Innovation Healthcare | |
GamingEvolution Gaming facing regulatory crackdowns on black market activity which is their most profitable segment. The company reported negative EBITDA growth for the first time in Q1, with margin compression and guidance for poor Q2 performance before expected recovery in the second half. |
Regulation Black Markets Live Casino Margins Recovery | |
Trade PolicyTrump administration's tariff threats created initial market volatility, but markets recovered as the administration backtracked to more moderate 10% general tariffs and 25% on some sectors. The strategy successfully shifted the Overton Window making 10% tariffs seem reasonable compared to initial threats of stopping global trade. |
Tariffs Trump Volatility Global Trade Policy | |
| 2025 Q1 |
AIAI capex and MAG7 stocks were getting entrenched with their fates interlinked. The AI/datacenter trade became radioactive after the correction, though the manager sees potential if capex numbers grow in 2026 and flatten in 2027. Looking at energy plays around AI infrastructure. |
Capex Datacenter Infrastructure Energy MAG7 |
Trade PolicyManager expects either recession from high US tariffs imposed without negotiation or weaker economic growth as trade frictions increase. Uncertainty around whether universal 25% tariffs will be implemented affects economic outlook. |
Tariffs Recession Growth Frictions Universal | |
Defense SpendingGerman defense and infrastructure spending bills drove outperformance in German stocks like ThyssenKrupp. The sexiness of U-boats and fiscal package led to significant rallies, though fundamentals remain weak in near term. |
German Infrastructure Fiscal U-boats Rally | |
ValueUK market presents clear opportunities with FTSE 250 down 5% despite European outperformance. Many cheap companies available, making UK the manager's favorite European hunting ground despite margin limitations on some positions. |
UK FTSE Cheap Opportunities European | |
| 2024 Q4 |
AIManager extensively analyzes AI capex spending by major tech companies, questioning sustainability of current investment levels and whether returns will justify the massive capital deployment. Notes that companies like MSFT and META are spending heavily on AI infrastructure, with some potentially approaching zero free cash flow. |
Capex Data Centers Infrastructure Investment Returns |
SemiconductorsDiscusses NVDA as beneficiary of AI spending boom, noting unprecedented revenue growth of 112% expected. Questions cyclical nature of current buildup and whether it will meet eventual slump, but would consider buying any significant dip given software advantages. |
NVDA Revenue Growth Cyclical Software Margins | |
Regional BanksFinds banks interesting again after KRE gave up most Trump victory gains. Specifically mentions CUBI, PFBC and several OTC banks as providing decent returns in coming months, though notes focus should be on identifying next major investment theme. |
KRE Trump OTC Returns Opportunities | |
ValueManager identifies as value investor and performs detailed valuation analysis of top 7 SPX holdings. Concludes some names like AAPL are expensive while others need AI capex to pay off to justify current valuations. Notes all are more expensive than one year ago. |
Valuation Expensive Multiples Analysis SPX | |
| 2024 Q3 |
TankersManager sees opportunities in tankers due to seasonal weakness ending and Middle East conflict escalation. Expects enforcement of dark fleet sanctions to benefit compliant fleet carrying offsetting output from Saudi Arabia and others, tightening ship availability. However, notes growing orderbook and higher valuations make tankers difficult as long-term holds. |
Oil Tankers Sanctions Iran Dark Fleet Shipping |
FinancialsContinues to see value in financials despite KRE's run-up. Some banks gave back gains, causing frustration with names like MBIN and PFBC. With rate cuts coming, manager plans to focus on banks with higher deposit beta while avoiding banks without deposit franchises. |
Regional Banks Deposit Beta Rate Cuts KRE | |
Medical DevicesFocused on Edwards Lifesciences after Q2 guidance cut created asymmetric opportunity. Company dominates TAVR market with 60-65% share but faces competition from Medtronic and Abbott. TMTT segment growing triple digits with no competition. Sees potential for TAVR market expansion and TMTT becoming meaningful revenue driver. |
TAVR Heart Valves Edwards Lifesciences Medical Technology | |
| 2024 Q2 |
FinancialsManager sees value in financials including traditional banks like MBIN, FCNCA, PFBC and TBBK. There is fear about commercial real estate and credit quality, but the manager believes the Treasury curve cannot get more inverted, which should lead to margin stabilization and improvement for banks. Focus on banks that have suffered from equity raises or bear reports. |
Banks Credit Margins CRE |
Semiconductor CycleManager notes semiconductors have been bid up with good reasons but had only a small position in ASML that was mostly sold during the quarter. The telco cycle appears to be bottoming and CIEN might benefit from AI and datacenter spending, potentially creating upside if the cycle turns. |
Semis Telco Datacenter AI | |
Small CapsManager is long several European small caps but won't disclose for liquidity reasons. IBKR doesn't provide margin on many small European names, limiting exposure in a levered portfolio. The worse liquidity is causing the manager to look more at US markets than before. |
Europe Liquidity Margin | |
| 2024 Q1 |
Defense SpendingEuropean defense companies trade at reasonable multiples with potential tailwinds from awakening EU defense budgets. Dassault Aviation produces the Rafale fighter, the only Fifth Generation aircraft not made by Lockheed Martin or Russians, with growing order book and no competing aircraft expected soon. |
Defense Aerospace European Rafale Military |
Small CapsManager finds significant value in plenty of small companies, particularly European ones, though liquidity constraints are becoming a limiting factor for building positions even in moderately sized portfolios. |
Small Cap European Liquidity Value Positioning |
| Date | Pitch Type | Author | Ticker | Company | Industry | Sub Industry | Bull / Bear | Exchange | Keywords | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 28, 2026 | Fund Letters | Rodrigo Benedetti | KITS CN | Kits Eyecare Ltd. | Consumer Discretionary | Specialty Retail | Bull | New York Stock Exchange | ecommerce, eyecare, Founderled, Margins, vertical integration | Login |
| Jan 28, 2026 | Fund Letters | Rodrigo Benedetti | EMO CN | Emerita Resources Corp. | Materials | Precious Metals Exploration | Bear | Toronto Stock Exchange | litigation, Mining, Retail Investors, Short, Speculation | Login |
| Jul 8, 2025 | Fund Letters | Rodrigo Benedetti | RXST | RxSight Inc. | Health Care | Health Care Supplies | Bull | NASDAQ | Cashrich, growth, Healthtech, Medicaldevices, Momentum, Premiumtechnology, turnaround, valuation, Visioncare | Login |
| Jul 8, 2025 | Fund Letters | Rodrigo Benedetti | EVO SS | Evolution AB | Communication Services | Interactive Home Entertainment | Bear | NASDAQ | Compliance, Cyclicals, Earningsquality, entertainment, iGaming, Margins, Regulation, Valuationrisk | Login |
| Mar 31, 2024 | Fund Letters | Rodrigo Benedetti | AM.PA | Dassault Aviation | Industrials | Aerospace & Defense | Bull | Euronext Paris | Aerospace, Defense, European, FCF multiple, Fighter Aircraft, geopolitical, Share Buybacks | Login |
| - | Fund Letters | Rodrigo Benedetti | RXST | RxSight | Health Care | Health Care Equipment | Bull | NASDAQ | cash-rich, Cataract Surgery, Healthcare Equipment, medical technology, Ophthalmology, Premium IOL, turnaround, UV Light Technology, Value | Login |
| - | Fund Letters | Rodrigo Benedetti | EVO.ST | Evolution Gaming | Consumer Discretionary | Casinos & Gaming | Bull | Stockholm Stock Exchange | Europe, Gaming, insider buying, live casino, Online-Gaming, Regulatory risk, turnaround, US market, Value | Login |
| - | Fund Letters | Rodrigo Benedetti | EW | Edwards Lifesciences Corporation | Health Care Equipment & Supplies | Health Care Equipment | Bull | NYSE | Asymmetric, healthcare, Heart Disease, market share, Medical devices, Medtech, Structural Heart, TAVR, TMTT, Valve Replacement | Login |
| TICKER | COMMENTARY |
|---|---|
| INTC | looking at you INTC... what I intended to be some long term positions, that I thought I could hold for years considering the AI backdrop, like INTC or AMD, went up so much that the future IRRs I can underwrite from here are not great |
| AMD | what I intended to be some long term positions, that I thought I could hold for years considering the AI backdrop, like INTC or AMD, went up so much that the future IRRs I can underwrite from here are not great |
| V | For example Visa and Mastercard are in the low range of historical valuation multiples, stablecoins will do nothing to the networks, they are not cheap cheap, but a punt here seems reasonable |
| MA | For example Visa and Mastercard are in the low range of historical valuation multiples, stablecoins will do nothing to the networks, they are not cheap cheap, but a punt here seems reasonable |
| MSFT | MSFT is the vendor of choice to every enterprise |
| CSU.TO | CSU has niche software and a good portion sold to the public sector, which is less inclined to build their own solution or switch vendors |
| CRM | being entrenched in the workflow of the companies, like the systems of record (CRM SAP) |
| SAP | being entrenched in the workflow of the companies, like the systems of record (CRM SAP) |
| MNDY | When everyone can code, a lot of software is just worthless (MNDY PATH ASAN and many smaller players I won't mention) |
| PATH | When everyone can code, a lot of software is just worthless (MNDY PATH ASAN and many smaller players I won't mention) |
| ASAN | When everyone can code, a lot of software is just worthless (MNDY PATH ASAN and many smaller players I won't mention) |
| Ticker | Put/Call | Amount Bought | Shares Bought | % Change | Weight % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No Recent Buys Data | |||||
| Ticker | Put/Call | Amount Sold | Shares Sold | % Change | Weight % | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No Recent Sells Data | ||||||
| Industry | Prev Quarter % | Current Quarter % | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| No industry data available | |||
