The curated database of hedge funds that publish investor letters. Research by geography, strategy, and schools of thought.
| # | Fund | Strategy | Style | Geography | AUM | Latest Letter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Goehring & Rozencwajg argue that global oil markets face a far more severe crisis than consensus recognizes. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz removed 1.5 billion barrels of supply, yet reported demand destruction of 5 million barrels per day is largely phantom—caused by refinery disruptions rather than true consumption decline. They estimate non-OECD refined product inventories have drawn by approximately 500 million barrels, bringing emerging markets to minimum operating levels, while strategic reserves are half-exhausted. The reopening will unleash three enormous simultaneous demands: refinery restarts requiring 6 million barrels per day, rebuilding 140 million barrels of oil on water, and restocking depleted product inventories. Beyond oil, they maintain conviction in a major commodity bull market driven by uranium deficits, natural gas convergence as LNG exports exceed shale production growth, developing super El Niño threatening agricultural supply, persistent coal demand exceeding peak forecasts, and hybrid vehicle adoption supporting PGM demand. They express caution on gold amid Western ETF liquidation and rising real rates, and view copper as having moved from deficit to surplus with unfavorable risk-reward despite the broader commodity cycle.
The managers argue that the apparent calm in global oil markets is illusory, driven by phantom demand destruction and invisible inventory draws in non-OECD refined products that have masked a structural deficit. They believe the market has fundamentally misunderstood the Strait of Hormuz disruption, with reported demand weakness actually reflecting refinery curtailments rather than true consumption decline. Once the Strait reopens, simultaneous calls for refinery restarts, oil-on-water rebuilding, and product inventory restocking will expose critically depleted buffers and drive prices sharply higher. More broadly, they maintain conviction in a major commodity bull market driven by structural deficits in uranium, natural gas convergence, agricultural weather risks, persistent coal demand, and hybrid-driven PGM consumption, while expressing caution on gold and copper in the near term.
The managers believe the global petroleum system is approaching a critical inflection point where invisible inventory draws in non-OECD refined products will become visible in OECD crude stocks. They expect the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz to trigger simultaneous demands for refinery restarts, oil-on-water rebuilding, and product inventory restocking that will overwhelm available supply buffers. Across commodities more broadly, they maintain conviction in a major multi-year bull market comparable to 1968-1980 and 1999-2011, with natural gas convergence, uranium deficits, agricultural weather disruptions, and coal demand persistence all supporting their positive long-term outlook. However, they express caution on gold and copper in the near term, recommending patience for better entry points.
As of Sep 2, 2026
Goehring & Rozencwajg Associates is led by two highly experienced natural resource investors with a combined 46 years of experience. Leigh Goehring brings over 30 years of experience and is internationally recognized as one of the most experienced investors in natural resources, having previously managed funds with peak assets over $5 billion. Adam Rozencwajg has 17-18 years of experience and is recognized as a leading authority on commodities with a contrarian, deep-value investment philosophy. Together they have integrated proprietary neural network AI models into their research process and publish quarterly commentary read by over 10,000 professionals.
Lead Portfolio Manager
Goehring & Rozencwajg Associates, LLC
Managing Partner
Moderate Conviction Bullish
Market Conviction
The letter demonstrates high conviction through detailed fundamental analysis, specific quantitative estimates (500 million barrel product draw, 6 million b/d refinery restart demand), and willingness to contradict consensus views (phantom demand destruction, copper surplus). The managers provide falsifiable catalysts with clear mechanisms (Strait reopening triggers, El Niño weather patterns, hybrid adoption). However, this is a market commentary rather than a fund letter with named, sized positions. No individual holdings are discussed with specific allocations or entry points. The conviction is expressed through analytical depth and contrarian positioning rather than concentrated portfolio construction. The explanation describes strong analytical conviction but acknowledges the absence of specific position sizing, which caps the score below 0.75. Score: 0.72.
Growth Outlook
Market outlook remains moderate conviction: The managers believe oil has entered a major bull market as the Strait of Hormuz closure exposes years of inadequate investment and faltering shale growth, targeting $120-150 oil. ...
Risk Appetite
Risk appetite posture is above average conviction: The managers believe oil has entered a major bull market as the Strait of Hormuz closure exposes years of inadequate investment and faltering shale growth, targeting $120-150 oil. ...
Capital Deployment
The managers describe maintaining existing positions in oil, uranium, agriculture, coal, and PGMs, while having reduced gold and silver in Q4 2025. They explicitly state they are waiting for better entry points in precious metals and express caution on copper. There is no evidence of cash levels changing or aggressive new position building. The activity described is selective holding and trimming rather than deployment. Score: +0.15.
Forward Guidance
Forward guidance signal: The managers believe oil has entered a major bull market as the Strait of Hormuz closure exposes years of inadequate investment and faltering shale growth, targeting $120-150 oil. ...
Language Signal
The letter contains substantial bullish language around oil (structural deficit, tanks running dry, invisible draws becoming visible), uranium (compelling fundamentals, deficit widening), natural gas (convergence thesis intact), agriculture (massive bull market potential), and coal (demand exceeding expectations). However, this is balanced by explicit bearish language on gold (correction has further to run, recommend patience) and copper (easy money made, risk-reward unfavorable, structural surplus). The net directional language leans modestly positive but is more balanced than purely bullish. Score: +0.55.
Perceived Risk
Perceived risk level is evaluated as moderate conviction. The managers believe oil has entered a major bull market as the Strait of Hormuz closure exposes years of inadequate investment and faltering shale growth, targeting $120-150 oil. ...
Opportunity Density
The managers identify compelling opportunities across multiple commodities: oil (structural deficit masked by phantom demand destruction), uranium (deficit widening with mines not yet built), natural gas (convergence thesis with LNG exports exceeding shale growth), agriculture (super El Niño developing), coal (demand exceeding peak forecasts), and PGMs (hybrid adoption supporting demand). They describe these as offering attractive risk-reward after recent corrections. However, they explicitly exclude gold (recommend patience) and copper (easy money made) from the opportunity set, suggesting selectivity rather than broad-based abundance. Score: 0.70.
Time Horizon
The managers discuss multi-year themes including a commodity bull market comparable to 1968-1980 and 1999-2011, agricultural bull market over the next five years, uranium demand through the 2030s with SMR deployment, and natural gas convergence as a long-term structural shift. However, they also focus on near-term catalysts including Strait reopening, refinery restarts, and inventory rebuilding over the next 6-12 months. The letter balances 2-5 year structural themes with 12-18 month catalyst-driven opportunities. No permanent capital structure is mentioned. Score: 0.68.
Top Conviction Themes
Key Catalysts
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