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| Quarter | Letter Date | Fund Name | QTD | YTD | Tickers | Themes | Quick Take |
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"The managers argue global oil markets face a hidden crisis: reported demand destruction is phantom, non-OECD product inventories have drawn 500 million barrels to minimum levels, and reopening the Strait will trigger simultaneous refinery restarts and inventory rebuilding that will overwhelm depleted buffers. They maintain conviction in a major commodity bull market across uranium, natural gas, agriculture, coal, and PGMs, while expressing caution on gold and copper near-term."
Goehring & Rozencwajg argue that global oil markets face a far more severe crisis than consensus recognizes. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz removed 1.5 billion barrels of supply, yet reported demand destruction of 5 million barrels per day is largely phantom—caused by refinery disruptions rather than true consumption decline. They estimate non-OECD refined product inventories have drawn by approximately 500 million barrels, bringing emerging markets to minimum operating levels, while strategic reserves are half-exhausted. The reopening will unleash three enormous simultaneous demands: refinery restarts requiring 6 million barrels per day, rebuilding 140 million barrels of oil on water, and restocking depleted product inventories. Beyond oil, they maintain conviction in a major commodity bull market driven by uranium deficits, natural gas convergence as LNG exports exceed shale production growth, developing super El Niño threatening agricultural supply, persistent coal demand exceeding peak forecasts, and hybrid vehicle adoption supporting PGM demand. They express caution on gold amid Western ETF liquidation and rising real rates, and view copper as having moved from deficit to surplus with unfavorable risk-reward despite the broader commodity cycle.
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