| ANNUALIZED SINCE INCEPTION | QUARTERLY | YTD |
|---|---|---|
| - | 11.7% | 15.3% |
Hosking Partners delivered 11.7% net returns in Q2 2026 and 15.3% year-to-date, outperforming the MSCI ACWI by 4.0% in a volatile first half dominated by AI momentum. The strategy's capital cycle framework drove strong absolute returns through profit-taking in memory semiconductors after historic gains, with positions like Micron up 242% and SK Hynix up 225% in the quarter. The manager maintains cautious exposure to semiconductors while recognizing that record profits will eventually incentivize supply responses. Energy positions detracted as Brent fell from $100 to $70 on geopolitical developments, but the manager maintains conviction given supply constraints and depleted inventories. The strategy increased Japan exposure to 13% to capture corporate reform opportunities and added to New York office REITs on scarcity dynamics. The portfolio is positioned away from AI-driven sectors experiencing record equity issuance and consumed free cash flow, and toward disciplined capital allocators with rising free cash flow and falling share counts, reflecting a return to traditional capital cycle investing after a decade of capital-light dominance.
Hosking Partners employs a capital cycle framework to identify mispriced opportunities where supply-demand imbalances create sustained return advantages, maintaining a highly diversified and contrarian portfolio positioned away from momentum-driven sectors experiencing record equity issuance and toward disciplined capital allocators with rising free cash flow and falling share counts.
The manager expects a challenging environment for the concentrated index given record capital spending and equity issuance in dominant sectors, but sees the strategy as well-positioned given its underweight to these areas and overweight to disciplined capital allocators. The return to traditional capital cycle dynamics is viewed as favorable for the strategy's differentiated approach. Energy markets are expected to remain volatile, creating opportunities for long-term investors focused on supply constraints. Japan corporate reform and New York office scarcity are expected to drive continued opportunities in those areas.
| Date | Letter | Tickers | Keywords | Pitches | Quick Takes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 20 2026 | 2026 Q2 | 000660 KS, 2206.T, 2502.T, 5423.T, 6971.T, 8058.T, 8088.T, 8923.T, 9427.T, AMAT, BESI.AS, GLW, GOOGL, LRCX, MU, SBSW, SLG, STX, TSM, VNO | AI, Capital Cycle, energy, Equity Issuance, Japan, semiconductors, value |
SBSW 9427.T |
Hosking Partners delivered 15.3% year-to-date through capital cycle discipline, taking profits in memory semiconductors after historic AI-driven gains while maintaining energy positions despite geopolitical volatility. The strategy is positioned away from momentum-driven AI sectors experiencing record equity issuance and toward disciplined capital allocators in Japan, energy, and New York office real estate, capitalizing on the return to traditional supply-demand dynamics after a decade of capital-light business dominance. |
| Apr 20 2026 | 2026 Q1 | 000660 KS, 005930 KS, 1662.T, AXP, CCO.TO, COF, DHT, GLW, HAFN.OL, III.L, INSW, JEF, LRCX, MOH.AT, MPC, MU, NE, PSK.TO, PSX, STX, SYF, TDW, UBS, VLO, WISE.L | AI, Capital Cycle, diversification, energy, Geopolitical, semiconductors | - | Hosking Partners outperformed 6.4% in Q1 2026 through capital cycle positioning in consolidated memory semiconductors and energy sectors. AI demand drove memory returns while Iran conflict boosted energy holdings. Added fifth portfolio manager and expanded to 408 stocks. Maintains counter-consensus energy exposure despite macro headwinds, relying on diversification for resilience. |
| Jan 19 2026 | 2025 Q4 | 000660.KS, 005930.KS, 055550.KS, AA, AAPL, BARC.L, C, FCX, HCC, IMPUY, MSFT, MU, SBSW, STX, SYF, TIGO | AI, contrarian, emerging markets, Japan, Mining, Platinum, technology, value | - | Hosking Partners delivered 33.5% annual returns through contrarian positioning, underweighting expensive US technology while overweighting emerging markets, Japan, and metals. South African platinum miners and select technology supply chain stocks drove outperformance. The manager sees an inflection point ahead as AI capital intensity compresses tech valuations, favoring their diversified value approach. |
| Oct 17 2025 | 2025 Q3 | 0700.HK, BABA, BAC, BTU, C, CFG, CRDA.L, DGE.L, FCX, HBAN, JEF, KWR, LXS.DE, LYB, NVDA, PNC, RCO.PA, RI.PA, SYNT.L, WFC | AI, broadening, Capital Cycle, China, Japan, Mining, small caps, value |
FCX US SAGA LN |
Hosking Partners delivered 11% Q3 returns by positioning for global equity broadening beyond US mega caps. The strategy maintains significant underweight to overvalued US markets while overweighting underinvested opportunities in metals/mining, Japan, China, and small caps. Key thesis centers on capital cycle dynamics where US hyperscalers face declining returns from AI datacenter build-out while previously neglected sectors see improving fundamentals. |
| Jul 17 2025 | 2025 Q2 | 000660.KS, 055550.KS, 0669.HK, 4443.T, 6201.T, 7157.T, 7203.T, AMS.JO, AVGO, BAB.L, CPNG, III.L, IMP.JO, META, MSFT, MU, NHM.JO, NVDA, SGL.JO, SYL.JO, VIST | defense, diversification, global, Platinum, South Korea, technology, Trade Policy, value |
BAB.L III.L 000660.KS CPNG 055550.KS |
Hosking Partners outperformed by 1.8% in Q2 despite underweights to US Tech, driven by defense, South Korea exposure, and platinum miners. Trump trade policies created market dislocation but strategy's global diversification across 370 stocks provided resilience. Manager sees continued outperformance opportunity in broadening market through duration advantage and capital cycle lens identifying deep value opportunities. |
| Apr 15 2025 | 2025 Q1 | 9435.T, AAL, AMAT, AVGO, BAB.L, BTU, COP, HAFN.OL, IMP.L, IPCO.TO, JEF, NVDA, OXY, SYF, TDW, VAL | AI, Capital Cycle, energy, Japan, regime change, semiconductors, tariffs, value |
BAB.L 9435.T IMP.JO IPC.TO TDW |
Hosking Partners applies Capital Cycle discipline positioning for regime change away from US megacap domination. Strategy maintains value focus with Japan overweight and Magnificent Seven underweight to 3%. Recent tariff volatility creates opportunities to upgrade cyclical exposures while supply dynamics in Energy and Materials differ from previous downturns, supporting medium-term outlook. |
| Feb 3 2025 | 2024 Q4 | AAPL, ALS.TO, AMZN, GOOGL, META, MSFT, NVDA, PDL.L, SBSW | active ownership, AI, Big tech, Community Relations, Energy Transition, Esg, Mining, Social Issues | - | Hosking Partners argues that overlooked social factors, particularly energy transition community relations and AI safety risks, will increasingly drive investment outcomes. The firm sees Big Tech facing regulatory headwinds rather than deregulation, while mining operations must prioritize social licence to operate. They initiated Petra Diamonds following human rights engagement and opposed Altius Renewable Royalties acquisition on valuation grounds. |
| Nov 11 2024 | 2024 Q3 | ASC.L, BAB.L, CX, SSW | Decarbonization, defense, Engagement, Esg, Governance, sustainability, Voting | - | Hosking Partners advocates for pragmatic ESG 2.0 approach distinguishing impact from financial products to avoid greenwashing. Geopolitical tensions prompted Defense sector re-examination via Babcock International position. Cemex engagement demonstrates successful decarbonization in hard-to-abate industries with 14% emissions reduction since 2020. Firm maintains single financial mandate while practicing active ownership through engagement and voting. |
| Jul 9 2024 | 2024 Q2 | 000660.KS, 6501.T, 6503.T, 7912.T, 8934.T, AAL.L, AAPL, ASC.L, AVGO, BABA, BHP, COST, CRES.BA, CX, HAFN.CO, III.L, KGN.AX, MU, NVDA | AI, Capital Cycle, contrarian, Diversified, global, Japan, technology, value | - | Hosking Partners runs a contrarian global strategy with 84% active share, significantly underweight US and technology. Despite Q2 underperformance from Apple and Nvidia avoidance, the fund delivered strong twelve-month relative returns through value plays and diversified exposure. Positioned for market broadening with 350 names across geographies, taking selective profits while maintaining AI exposure through semiconductor holdings. |
| May 31 2024 | 2024 Q1 | AAPL, TSLA | AI, Capital Cycle, Copper, emerging markets, Japan, Mining, value | - | Hosking Partners continues strong performance with capital cycle investing approach, benefiting from momentum unwind as zero weights to Apple and Tesla drive returns. Portfolio reorientation from expensive US toward undervalued Japan and emerging markets accelerates, with Japanese industrial consolidation and emerging market opportunities providing key drivers for multi-year normalization period ahead. |
| Feb 13 2024 | 2023 Q4 | 1605.T, ARR.TO, ENR.DE, MSFT, ORSTED.CO, TPG | Capital Cycle, Energy Transition, Engagement, Esg, Offshore Wind, Renewables, Voting, Wind | - | Hosking Partners avoided the 75% collapse in offshore wind companies by applying their capital cycle approach, focusing on supply rather than demand narratives. While the renewable transition continues, the firm seeks exposure through lower-risk structures like Altius Renewables Royalties' royalty model rather than pure-play operators devastated by cost inflation and rising rates. |
| Sep 30 2023 | 2023 Q3 | AAPL | AI, Big tech, Drilling, energy, interest rates, Japan, semiconductors, value | - | Hosking Partners outperformed with contrarian portfolio of unfashionable stocks positioned for market broadening beyond Big Tech dominance. Significant Energy overweight reflects supply gap thesis while Japan exposure leverages cross-shareholding unwinds. Portfolio positioned for value factor reversal as fixed income bull market potentially ends and interest rates normalize, favoring old-economy companies with strong balance sheets. |
| Jun 30 2023 | 2023 Q2 | AAPL, META, MSFT, NVDA, TSLA | Banking, Capital Cycle, Japan, Material World, Offshore Drilling, value | - | Value-focused global equity fund trading at 0.5x market P/E, emphasizing material world investments over AI/tech. Increased Japan exposure capitalizing on corporate governance reforms. Adding to supply-constrained sectors like offshore drilling. Underperformed in Q2 due to underweight in large-cap tech but maintains conviction in disciplined capital cycle approach. |
| May 29 2023 | 2023 Q1 | - | Banking, emerging markets, financials, Japan, rates, technology, value | - | Hosking Partners' Q1 underperformance stemmed from banking crisis rotation favoring growth over value. Key catalysts emerging: Japan's TSE mandating corporate value creation and Sri Lanka's IMF-backed recovery. Manager questions market consensus on Fed pivot, seeing potential for higher rates and resilient growth. Maintains conviction in undervalued portfolio despite near-term headwinds. |
| Jan 29 2023 | 2022 Q4 | - | - | - | |
| Sep 30 2022 | 2022 Q3 | - | - | - | |
| Jan 7 2022 | 2022 Q2 | - | - | - | |
| Mar 30 2022 | 2022 Q1 | - | - | - |
| QUARTER | THEMES | TAGS |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 Q2 |
Semiconductor CycleMemory semiconductors drove significant returns as AI demand met constrained supply. The strategy took profits in DRAM positions after historic price moves, with stocks like Micron up 242% and SK Hynix up 225% in Q2. The manager maintains cautious exposure, aware that record profits will eventually incentivize new supply with inevitable consequences for returns. |
Memory DRAM AI Capacity Supply |
Capital CycleThe letter emphasizes a return to traditional capital cycle investing after a decade of capital-light businesses. The manager analyzes industry structures and lead times for new supply to determine sustainability of returns. They note that current market euphoria represents investors re-learning fundamentals where capacity, competition, and cost of capital drive outcomes. |
Competition Supply Returns Capacity Fundamentals | |
AIAI spending beneficiaries produced 85% of market returns in H1 2026, with four stocks accounting for 40 percentage points of S&P 500 earnings growth. The manager notes this as one of the biggest momentum markets in modern equity history but maintains a material underweight to the sector, viewing the concentration as unsustainable given rising equity issuance and consumed free cash flow. |
Hyperscalers Concentration Momentum Valuations Issuance | |
OilEnergy was the largest detractor as Brent fell from $100 to $70 following a US-Iran framework agreement. Despite the pullback, the manager maintains positions in North American producers and offshore drillers, citing lack of supply response to geopolitical events and depleted inventories. The system has little excess capacity as major producers assume price spikes will not last. |
Geopolitics Supply Inventories Volatility Iran | |
Platinum Group MetalsThe PGM basket gave back some performance after a strong 12-month run, prompting the manager to refocus holdings with increased investment in Sibanye Stillwater. Sibanye has moved from uncomfortable leverage to line-of-sight on net cash through prodigious cash generation. With a new CEO committed to capital discipline, the manager expects shareholder returns to be prioritized and sees material re-rating potential from 1x normalized EV/EBITDA. |
South Africa Cash generation Leverage Valuation Discipline | |
JapanThe strategy added 1% to its Japan overweight, bringing total exposure to 13%. Additions included Hikari Tsushin, which has compounded book value at 17% over 15 years with a culture laser-focused on capital efficiency. The manager also increased positions in deep-value opportunities expected to benefit from corporate reform underway in Japan, while taking profits in longer-held positions that performed strongly. |
Corporate reform Value Capital efficiency Compounding | |
Commercial Real EstateThe manager meaningfully increased positions in New York REITs SL Green and Vornado, reflecting growing scarcity of prime office space. This scarcity is exerting upward pressure on rents following a decade-plus build cycle that halted with COVID. |
Office Scarcity Rents New York | |
BuybacksSince the global financial crisis, US companies reduced shares outstanding through buybacks aided by cheap debt, providing a powerful tailwind for returns and valuations. This phenomenon is approaching its end as AI spending has consumed all hyperscaler free cash flow, leaving no room to continue buybacks. Alphabet and Meta have conducted secondary offerings instead. |
Share count Free cash flow Supply Hyperscalers | |
| 2026 Q1 |
Semiconductor CycleStrategy benefited from selective exposure to memory semiconductor companies SK hynix, Micron and Samsung Electronics during AI capex boom. Capital cycle analysis shows consolidation from 30+ DRAM players to just three survivors has led to disciplined capex and strong returns from AI memory demand. |
Memory DRAM AI Capex Consolidation |
OilEnergy overweight at 12.2% versus 3.9% benchmark benefited from Iran bombing and geopolitical tensions. Capital cycle analysis explains overweight: excessive capex in last decade led to bust, putting sector on capital diet with improved returns on capital. |
Energy Geopolitical Capital Cycle Overweight | |
ShippingNotable contributors included crude and product tanker companies DHT, Hafnia and International Seaways. Shipping exposure held since 2016 as part of energy services and ancillary sectors strategy. |
Tankers Energy Services Maritime | |
Private CreditJefferies was hurt by its involvement with private credit funds during the quarter. Manager identifies liquidity and leverage issues surfacing in private credit as one of current geopolitical risks facing markets. |
Leverage Liquidity Credit Risk | |
RefinersTransaction activity saw initiations and additions in refinery names Valero, Phillips 66, Marathon Petroleum and Motor Oil at the start of the quarter, reflecting tendency to start small and add opportunistically. |
Refining Energy Opportunistic | |
| 2025 Q4 |
AIAlphabet's Gemini AI gained massive traction with 650m monthly users in 6 months, driving $2 trillion in market value. Questions remain about efficiency gains and which AI products will prevail. Nine of top ten AI labs use Google Cloud. |
Artificial Intelligence Alphabet Gemini Cloud |
AirlinesRyanair posted impressive results with earlier aircraft deliveries and upgraded traffic expectations. Management expects reasonable net profit growth. The competitive positioning is strengthening with high-quality management team. |
Ryanair Aircraft Traffic Competition | |
BroadbandCharter Communications was hammered down 24% quarterly and 50% annually due to fierce competition. Despite tough environment, manager believes Charter's offering will eventually reign supreme with strong free cash flow growth expected. |
Charter Internet Competition Infrastructure | |
GoldManager sold gold mining positions too early in 2024, missing significant gains as gold reached $4,900 per ounce. Regis Resources multiplied 4.5x and Northern Star doubled since selling. This cost the fund an estimated 15% in foregone returns. |
Gold Miners Regis Resources Northern Star Selling | |
SemiconductorsSold semiconductor manufacturers too early including Micron Technology and Samsung Electronics. Micron now trades at 3.5x the average selling price. Samsung returned 43% since being sold in September. |
Micron Samsung Memory Selling | |
| 2025 Q3 |
AIThe strategy sees speculative excess in AI with hyperscalers dramatically increasing capital bases for datacentres, creating a classic capital cycle with real risk of over-build. Nvidia represents 8% of S&P 500 and 5% of MSCI ACWI, creating alarming concentration. The AI bet must pay off given the weight in global indices. |
Hyperscalers Datacentres Nvidia Concentration Capital Cycle |
Platinum Group MetalsPGM supply is persistently inelastic with falling primary supply. The last major investment cycle into deep South African mines was in late 1990s, and those shafts are reaching end of life. PGM basket price is less than 50% of gold today versus twice gold price in late 1990s-early 2000s cycle. |
Supply Deficit South Africa Mining Investment Platinum Palladium | |
ChinaChinese equities rose 20% in Q3 as investors rewarded the Chinese approach to AI: open sourced, powered by cheap power and increasingly self-sufficient advanced chips. Alibaba remains 43% off peak versus US Magnificent 7 at all-time highs, offering compelling valuations relative to US peers. |
Reappraisal Technology Valuation Geopolitical Self-sufficient | |
JapanJapan represents a country-level capital cycle with large scale industry consolidation as the end destination. The potential leadership of Sanae Takaichi, the Iron Lady of Japan, could accelerate M&A activity which has been a missing piece in the Japan puzzle. |
Consolidation M&A Capital Returns Takaichi Liberal Party | |
ValueGlobal equity markets are broadening after a decade-plus of US leadership, with the US at once-a-generation valuation extremes. The strategy benefits from valuation-driven underweight to US and overweight to harder-to-access opportunities in Japan, UK, and emerging markets where valuations are low and capital has been rationed. |
Broadening Valuation Extremes Capital Rationing Mean Reversion Underweight US | |
Small CapsRevival in small- and mid-cap shares outside the US is evident. Examples include Saga, a £400m market cap over-50s company that rose 53% in the quarter, and Sri Lankan small caps benefiting from economic recovery. Both offer compelling multi-bagger return potential as turnarounds progress. |
Revival Saga Sri Lanka Multi-bagger Turnarounds | |
| 2025 Q2 |
Trade PolicyTrump administration imposed 10% base tariff on all trade partners plus reciprocal tariffs based on trade surplus levels. Reciprocal tariffs paused except for China, but base tariff remained. This policy shift is expected to create significant reordering of winners and losers. |
Tariffs Trade China Policy Reordering |
PlatinumAssembled basket of platinum miners accounting for 2.5% of strategy. Barriers to exit have depressed valuations to deep discounts to replacement value. Marginally less bad outlook for platinum use in combustion engines resulted in strong share price gains as commodity price spiked almost 50%. |
Mining Commodities Valuation Discount Replacement | |
AIUnderweight to AI beneficiaries like Broadcom and nil exposure to Nvidia, Microsoft, Meta detracted from performance. Market paying attention to hyperscalers' free cash flow margins which remain positive despite AI capex burden, while incremental margins turned negative. Absurd spending on AI talent suggests barriers to entry from incumbency not so high. |
Technology Capex Margins Talent Barriers | |
South KoreaStrategy has overweight to South Korea through holdings in SK Hynix, Coupang, and Shinhan Bank. South Korea was strongest performing market in Asia during quarter, partly due to resolution of political uncertainty with presidential election. Combined selections outperformed Korea country benchmark. |
Asia Politics Election Outperformance Uncertainty | |
DefenseNaval defense company Babcock benefited from growing overseas and UK domestic demand for defense expertise, leading to upgrade of medium-term targets. This contributed positively to strategy performance during the quarter. |
Naval Demand Targets Expertise Growth | |
| 2025 Q1 |
ValueThe strategy has positioned further into value territory with underweight to Magnificent Seven declining to 3% versus 19% benchmark weight. The team seeks capital-starved areas trading at steep discounts to replacement value, believing value businesses offer compelling propositions given different supply dynamics. |
Replacement Cost Discount Undervalued Capital Starved Book Value |
JapanJapan viewed as one of most attractive investment opportunities worldwide with strategy weight grown to 15%. Most listed companies trade below book value with sub-scale returns and inefficient balance sheets, but corporate governance reform has reached a tipping point after decades of speculation. |
Corporate Governance Reform Book Value Balance Sheet Tipping Point | |
EnergyStrategy maintains 11% Energy exposure despite recent volatility. The team believes supply dynamics are fundamentally different from previous downturns with capital expenditures relative to depreciation falling significantly, suggesting equilibrium between supply and demand should be reached more quickly. |
Supply Dynamics Capital Expenditure Depreciation Equilibrium Leverage | |
AICurrent AI investment cycle characterized by hundreds of billions in capital flooding into potentially revolutionary technology. Management teams trapped in prisoner's dilemma investing defensively to protect market capitalizations, with competition intensifying and heavy investment burden likely to depress future returns on capital. |
Investment Cycle Capital Flooding Competition Returns On Capital Prisoner's Dilemma | |
SemiconductorsFully exited Nvidia and reduced holdings in AI-related semiconductor companies as valuations no longer reflect inherent cyclicality. Industry consolidation led to oligopolies and quasi-monopolies, but recent AI demand bottlenecks have driven valuations to new heights beyond fundamental cyclical nature. |
Cyclicality Consolidation Oligopolies Bottlenecks Valuations | |
| 2024 Q4 |
Energy TransitionThe energy transition remains a local and intensely social affair, with community relations and licence-to-operate becoming critical factors. The tension between local interests and global decarbonisation targets is intensifying, leading to a shift toward adaptation and resilience strategies rather than purely top-down emissions targets. |
Decarbonisation Community Relations Critical Minerals Adaptation Resilience |
AIAI safety is emerging as a critical priority with implications for regulation and Big Tech incumbents. The rapid iteration of AI is catalysing regulatory attention, while the capital cycle dynamics suggest potential pressure on returns as competition intensifies and capital floods into the sector. |
Safety Regulation Capital Cycle Competition Big Tech | |
Critical MineralsMining and natural resource extraction sectors face increasing scrutiny over community relations and social licence to operate. The push to secure critical minerals for clean energy often creates mismatches between local and global priorities, requiring careful balance between shareholder returns and community well-being. |
Mining Community Relations Social Licence Copper Lithium | |
| 2024 Q3 |
ESGThe report explores the evolution from ESG 1.0 to ESG 2.0, arguing that while ESG is here to stay, clearer distinctions between impact-focused and financially driven investments are necessary. The firm advocates for two labels: unconstrained products with single financial mandates and impact products with clearly defined secondary mandates and evidenced additionality. |
ESG Impact Sustainability Regulation Greenwashing |
DefenseRising geopolitical tensions have prompted re-examination of the Defense sector. The firm initiated a position in Babcock International, viewing it as a responsible turnaround opportunity due to its critical role in maintaining the UK's nuclear deterrent capabilities and unique strategic assets under new management. |
Defense Nuclear Geopolitical Deterrent Turnaround | |
Energy TransitionEngagement with Cemex demonstrates how companies in hard-to-abate industries are tackling decarbonization. Cemex has achieved 14% reduction in gross carbon emissions since 2020 through reducing clinker reliance, operational efficiency improvements, and introducing lower-carbon product lines while maintaining financial discipline. |
Decarbonization Carbon Cement Sustainability Innovation | |
| 2024 Q2 |
AIThe fund maintains exposure to AI-enablers including Nvidia, Broadcom, Micron and SK Hynix with around 4% weighting. While retaining skeptical position on size and duration of AI demand until use cases become clearer, the holdings have strong competitive positions and technological advantages. The fund has been taking gradual profits in all four AI holdings while maintaining exposure to the emerging theme. |
Nvidia Semiconductors Parallel Processing Cuda Hardware |
ValueThe fund emphasizes value opportunities with holdings like shipping company Hafnia and diversified miner Anglo American trading at discounts to replacement value. Historical analysis suggests when US market returns are concentrated in few leaders, the following year generally sees outsized returns to the value factor at expense of growth and momentum. |
Replacement Value Discount Shipping Mining Contrarian | |
JapanThe fund maintains 12.3% weight in Japan versus 5.3% benchmark weight with a diversified 54-stock Japanese basket. Holdings include exporters with AI and grid transformation exposure like Hitachi, and activist situations like Dai Nippon Printing and Suncorporation. Despite yen weakness, Japan contributed positive 0.5% to strategy performance over twelve months. |
Yen Exporters Activists Currency Diversified | |
Capital CycleThe fund applies capital cycle analysis across holdings, particularly in memory stocks where increasing capital requirements would induce industry consolidation. Top contributors 3i and Costco are positioned towards the crest of the capital cycle curve, with 3i benefiting from scale economies shared through its Action ownership. |
Memory Consolidation Scale Returns Moat | |
| 2024 Q1 |
JapanThe renaissance of the Japanese stock market continued with MSCI Japan rising 11% in US dollar terms despite a 6.8% fall in the yen. The portfolio's basket of over 50 Japanese names added value with significant corporate activity in small cap and activist-inspired investments. Industrial consolidation is becoming a reality as a key part of the Japan value release puzzle. |
Corporate Activity Industrial Consolidation Small Cap Activist |
Emerging marketsThe portfolio saw notable purchases in emerging markets including a new position in an Indonesian financial, Indian gold-loan company, and Turkish warehouse operator. Sri Lankan investments performed particularly well with nine names rising 17% in US dollar terms as the economy grew 4.5% in Q4 2023, the first positive quarter since the Covid-era crisis. |
Indonesia India Turkey Sri Lanka Economic Recovery | |
CopperMining investments saw additions to the copper basket where encouraging signs of the supply constrained capital cycle thesis are playing out. The investment thesis in copper is supply predicated, though there is recognition of clear benefit should aggressive AI demand forecasts materialize, with JP Morgan estimating each 1 MW of data center power capacity requires 20-40 tonnes of copper. |
Supply Constraint Capital Cycle Data Centers AI Demand | |
AIDespite the dominant AI narrative in US markets, the portfolio benefits from increasing dispersion among large cap US tech companies. The AI theme presents potential copper demand upside, with data center power capacity requiring significant copper tonnage. The Magnificent Seven companies are increasingly not capital light businesses as they compete in cloud, data centers and AI. |
Data Centers Cloud Copper Demand Capital Intensity | |
Electric VehiclesTesla was the second largest single stock contributor through zero weight positioning. The EV movie unfolds with interest as Tesla may have peaked in share price terms exactly when the massively over-capitalised Chinese EV industry started exporting surplus vehicles. Stellantis CEO described the situation as a competitive bloodbath. |
Tesla China Overcapacity Competition | |
| 2023 Q4 |
WindThe offshore wind sector experienced significant value destruction with companies like Ørsted and Siemens Energy falling 75% from 2021 highs. The boom was driven by mispriced capital and unrealistic cost deflation assumptions, while the bust resulted from cost inflation, rising interest rates, and technological limitations that made project economics unviable. |
Offshore Wind Renewable Energy Capital Cycle Valuation Cost Inflation |
Energy TransitionDespite the offshore wind sector's challenges, the broader renewable energy transition continues with wind energy predicted to reach 30% of global power generation by 2050. The firm identifies potential opportunities emerging from the sector's value destruction, particularly through royalty structures that provide exposure without operational risks. |
Renewable Energy IEA Forecasts Energy Infrastructure Royalties Clean Energy | |
| 2023 Q3 |
EnergyPortfolio maintains significant Energy overweight at ~15% vs 5.2% benchmark, reflecting recognition of growing supply gap between global energy needs and available supply from traditional and renewable sources. Oil drilling positions were added as rising day rates validated supply-constrained thesis, with barriers to entry for new deepwater drillships requiring $1 billion+ build costs. |
Oil Drilling Energy Trading Oil Services Natural Gas |
ValuePortfolio positioned for potential reversal of value factor underperformance dating back to 2017, with contrarian approach emphasizing unfashionable stocks. Old-economy Energy and Materials sectors contain companies that have fixed balance sheets during years of investor apathy, now offering wide margin of safety with improving profits and cash returns to shareholders. |
Value Dividends Buybacks | |
JapanPortfolio exposure at ~12.5% represents 6.5% overweight versus benchmark, reinforcing value characteristics with additional benefit of cross-shareholdings being unwound. Recent investment team visit highlighted paradox where rising share prices increase cross-shareholding values, maintaining valuation anomaly attractiveness even at higher prices. |
Japan Value | |
AIHosking Partners takes prudent approach to AI gold rush by providing picks and shovels through semiconductors and semiconductor equipment manufacturers rather than direct AI plays. Analysis shows sellside analysts increased 2024 capex growth expectations for large-cap AI plays from 3-4% to 16% in nine months, though monetization of AI capability remains unclear. |
AI Semiconductors Semi Equipment | |
| 2023 Q2 |
ValuePortfolio has increased its value tilt over the past decade, recycling proceeds from expensive US equities into more attractively valued companies. Portfolio P/E has fallen from 0.95x to 0.5x the market P/E through disciplined sell-high, buy-low decisions. |
Value Valuation P/E Discount |
JapanJapan is in early stages of a broad push towards capitalist norms with Tokyo Stock Exchange asking constituents to assess cost of capital and address valuations below book. Record AGM season with increased capital return targets announced across companies. |
Japan Corporate Governance Capital Return Reform | |
Offshore DrillingContinued adding to offshore driller exposure. Industry has undergone sustained asset scrapping, market consolidation to seven major players, and Chapter 11 restructurings. Supply-constrained outlook proving powerful tailwind for day rates and earnings. |
Offshore Drilling Day Rates Supply Constraint Consolidation | |
AIFive ethereal world stocks including AI-related companies rose 18-52% in the quarter, comprising 11.3% of MSCI ACWI. Portfolio has bias toward material world rather than ethereal world of AI, platform companies, and cloud. |
AI Technology Ethereal World | |
| 2023 Q1 |
ValueThe manager emphasizes their value investing approach, noting that value stocks are cyclical and have faced a performance double whammy from dampened earnings expectations and lower ratings. They maintain confidence in their diversified portfolio of undervalued and underowned securities despite Q1 underperformance. |
Value Cyclical Undervalued Underowned |
JapanThe Tokyo Stock Exchange has issued an edict requiring modestly valued companies to provide plans for achieving premium to book value. With 40% of Japanese firms trading below book value, the manager sees this as a clarion call for value investment outperformance, expecting initiatives centered around share buybacks to improve return on equity. |
Japan Buybacks Book Value TSE | |
Emerging marketsThe manager added exposure to Sri Lanka during the quarter, which stabilized after financial crisis through IMF agreements and economic reforms. They see a multi-year recovery benefiting equity valuations, led by tourism recovery. The outlook for emerging markets remains positive relative to developed markets. |
Emerging Markets Sri Lanka Recovery Tourism | |
RatesThe manager questions market conviction about imminent Fed pivot and lower interest rates. They suggest central banks may be behind the curve, inflation could remain stubbornly above target, and interest rates may continue rising after a near-term plateau, contrary to market expectations. |
Interest Rates Fed Inflation Central Banks | |
Credit StressThe banking crisis in March with Silicon Valley Bank and Credit Suisse created an air pocket in capital markets. The manager questions whether this is systemic or isolated, noting the irony that banks' Achilles heel is now safer government bonds they were forced to buy by regulators, not risky loans. |
Banking Credit Silicon Valley Bank Credit Suisse |
| Date | Pitch Type | Author | Ticker | Company | Industry | Sub Industry | Bull / Bear | Exchange | Keywords | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 20, 2026 | Fund Letters | Hosking Partners | SBSW | Sibanye Stillwater | Other Precious Metals & Mining | Precious Metals & Minerals | Bull | New York Stock Exchange | balance sheet improvement, capital discipline, materials, Mining, PGM, Platinum Group Metals, Precious Metals, South Africa, turnaround, Value | Login |
| Jul 20, 2026 | Fund Letters | Hosking Partners | 9427.T | Hikari Tsushin | Other | Telecommunications Equipment | Bull | Japan Exchange Group (Tokyo Stock Exchange) | book value growth, capital efficiency, Communication Services, Corporate Reform, deep value, Japan, telecommunications, Value | Login |
| Oct 17, 2025 | Fund Letters | Steve Chambers | FCX US | Freeport-McMoRan Inc. | Materials | Copper Mining | Bull | NYSE | AI, cash flow, Copper, Electrification, infrastructure, Mining, valuation | Login |
| Oct 17, 2025 | Fund Letters | Steve Chambers | SAGA LN | Saga plc | Financials | Travel & Leisure | Bull | NYSE | Demographics, growth, Insurance, Travel, turnaround, UK, valuation | Login |
| Jul 17, 2025 | Fund Letters | Hosking Partners | BAB.L | Babcock International Group | Industrials | Aerospace & Defense | Bull | London Stock Exchange | Aerospace & Defense, Bull, Defense Contractor, Equity, Naval Defense, UK | Login |
| Jul 17, 2025 | Fund Letters | Hosking Partners | III.L | 3i Group | Financials | Asset Management & Custody Banks | Bull | London Stock Exchange | Bull, Equity, Europe, Hard Discount, private equity, retail, store rollout | Login |
| Jul 17, 2025 | Fund Letters | Hosking Partners | 000660.KS | SK Hynix | Information Technology | Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment | Bull | Korea Exchange | Asia, Bull, DRAM, Equity, memory semiconductors, NAND flash, South Korea | Login |
| Jul 17, 2025 | Fund Letters | Hosking Partners | CPNG | Coupang | Consumer Discretionary | Internet & Direct Marketing Retail | Bull | New York Stock Exchange | Asia, Bull, e-commerce, Equity, Logistics, online retail, South Korea | Login |
| Jul 17, 2025 | Fund Letters | Hosking Partners | 055550.KS | Shinhan Bank | Financials | Banks | Bull | Korea Exchange | Asia, banking, Bull, Commercial Bank, Equity, financials, South Korea | Login |
| Apr 15, 2025 | Fund Letters | Hosking Partners | BAB.L | Babcock International Group | Industrials | Aerospace & Defense | Bull | London Stock Exchange | Asset-based valuation, Defense, European defense spending, Naval, Submarine, turnaround, UK | Login |
| Apr 15, 2025 | Fund Letters | Hosking Partners | 9435.T | Hikari Tsushin | Communication Services | Diversified Telecommunication Services | Bull | Tokyo Stock Exchange | holding company, Japan, Japanese equities, Micro-cap, Portfolio company, small-cap, Yen debt | Login |
| Apr 15, 2025 | Fund Letters | Hosking Partners | IMP.JO | Impala Platinum Holdings | Materials | Precious Metals & Minerals | Bull | Johannesburg Stock Exchange | Mining, PGM, platinum, Replacement Cost, Smelting, South Africa, strategic assets | Login |
| Apr 15, 2025 | Fund Letters | Hosking Partners | IPC.TO | International Petroleum Corporation | Energy | Oil & Gas Exploration & Production | Bull | Toronto Stock Exchange | Canada, capital allocation, Lundin Family, oil and gas, production growth, Share Buybacks, Upstream | Login |
| Apr 15, 2025 | Fund Letters | Hosking Partners | TDW | Tidewater Inc | Energy | Oil & Gas Equipment & Services | Bull | New York Stock Exchange | Industry leader, Maritime, net cash, Offshore energy, Offshore support vessels, OSV, Replacement Cost | Login |
| TICKER | COMMENTARY |
|---|---|
| MU | We continued to take profits in our DRAM memory semiconductor basket as share prices made historic moves to new highs (Q2 performance in USD terms: Micron +242%). |
| 000660.KS | We continued to take profits in our DRAM memory semiconductor basket as share prices made historic moves to new highs (Q2 performance in USD terms: SK Hynix +225%). |
| STX | We continued to take profits in our DRAM memory semiconductor basket as share prices made historic moves to new highs (Q2 performance in USD terms: Seagate +147%). |
| GLW | We continued to take profits in our DRAM memory semiconductor basket as share prices made historic moves to new highs (Q2 performance in USD terms: Corning +88%). |
| TSM | We continued to take profits in our DRAM memory semiconductor basket as share prices made historic moves to new highs (Q2 performance in USD terms: TSMC +38%). |
| LRCX | We continued to take profits in our DRAM memory semiconductor basket as share prices made historic moves to new highs (Q2 performance in USD terms: LAM Research +103%). |
| AMAT | We continued to take profits in our DRAM memory semiconductor basket as share prices made historic moves to new highs (Q2 performance in USD terms: Applied Materials +112%). |
| BESI.AS | We continued to take profits in our DRAM memory semiconductor basket as share prices made historic moves to new highs (Q2 performance in USD terms: BE Semiconductor +60%). |
| SBSW | The pullback in PGM basket prices gave us an opportunity to refocus our basket of miners, with increased investment into Sibanye Stillwater, funded by taking profits at its more highly rated peers. Sibanye has moved from a position of uncomfortable leverage 18 months ago to now having line-of-sight on a net cash balance sheet, the result of prodigious cash generation from the past year of high PGM prices. With new CEO Richard Stewart declaring a commitment to capital discipline, we expect shareholder returns to be prioritised and see the prospect of a material re-rating from the current c1x normalised EV/EBITDA valuation. |
| 9427.T | This included adding to our largest Japanese holding, Hikari Tsushin, which is owned by all five multi-counsellors and whose shares have derated back to levels seen at the time of our initial purchase in late 2022. Hikari has operated under the radar in Japan, with a unique culture laser-focused on capital efficiency, resulting in book value compounding at 17% over the last 15 years. |
| 5423.T | We also increased our positions in other deep-value opportunities that we believe will benefit from the corporate reform underway in Japan, such as Tokyo Steel. |
| 8088.T | We also increased our positions in other deep-value opportunities that we believe will benefit from the corporate reform underway in Japan, such as Iwatani. |
| 2502.T | We also increased our positions in other deep-value opportunities that we believe will benefit from the corporate reform underway in Japan, such as Asahi Group. |
| 2206.T | We also increased our positions in other deep-value opportunities that we believe will benefit from the corporate reform underway in Japan, such as Ezaki Glico. |
| 8923.T | We also increased our positions in other deep-value opportunities that we believe will benefit from the corporate reform underway in Japan, such as Tosei. |
| 6971.T | At the same time, we took profits in longer held positions, such as Kyocera and Mitsubishi, which have performed strongly. |
| 8058.T | At the same time, we took profits in longer held positions, such as Kyocera and Mitsubishi, which have performed strongly. |
| SLG | We meaningfully increased the strategy's more recent position in New York real estate investment trusts (REITs) SL Green and Vornado, reflecting a growing scarcity of prime office space, which is exerting upward pressure on rents following a decade-plus build cycle that halted with COVID. |
| VNO | We meaningfully increased the strategy's more recent position in New York real estate investment trusts (REITs) SL Green and Vornado, reflecting a growing scarcity of prime office space, which is exerting upward pressure on rents following a decade-plus build cycle that halted with COVID. |
| GOOGL | In a reversal, Alphabet and Meta have recently conducted secondary offerings to ensure they do not fall behind in the spending race. |
| Ticker | Put/Call | Amount Bought | Shares Bought | % Change | Weight % |
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