The curated database of hedge funds that publish investor letters. Research by geography, strategy, and schools of thought.
| # | Fund | Strategy | Style | Geography | AUM | Latest Letter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Macro Ops returned +51.43% year-to-date through August 24, 2026, with the portfolio concentrated in precious metals and miners, EUR, MXN, ETH, biotech, healthcare, defense, agricultural commodities, and natural gas, while short the Dow. The core thesis centers on a multi-asset commodity bull market following the Commodity Relay pattern where precious metals lead, followed by industrial metals, energy, and agriculture. Agricultural commodities broke out from their tightest monthly compression in 30+ years, with the manager aggressively buying corn, wheat, and targeting cocoa. An incoming Super El Niño—described as the most significant since 1877—is expected to drive severe supply disruptions. Natural gas producers broke out from 2013 compression levels, prompting long positions. Currency positioning favors EUR, MXN, and GBP against a weakening dollar following bearish technical signals. The manager closed ultra bond shorts after Treasury intervention signaled opposition to higher long-end rates. While maintaining a bullish stance on risk assets, the outlook acknowledges increased volatility and rotation through mid-October's weak seasonality period, with the base case being trend up, volatility up, and continued sector rotation.
The portfolio is positioned for a multi-asset bull market led by commodities following the Commodity Relay pattern, with agricultural commodities breaking out from multi-decade compression and poised for a major bull run driven by an incoming extreme El Niño event, while maintaining long exposure to precious metals, select currencies (EUR, MXN, GBP), and natural gas producers, all supported by technical breakouts and bearish dollar signals.
The manager maintains a bullish stance on the broader trend in risk assets, with the path of least resistance for the SPX remaining upward. However, the outlook acknowledges increased near-term volatility and rotation beneath the surface, particularly through the weak seasonality period extending to mid-October. The base case is trend up, volatility up, and continued rotation. Key to the outlook is whether bonds take out Bessent's line or reverse. The manager is shifting capital allocation focus toward agricultural commodities and natural gas, expecting major bull markets in these areas driven by technical breakouts and fundamental catalysts including an extreme El Niño event. Currency positioning favors non-dollar exposure given bearish dollar signals.
As of Aug 29, 2026
Alex Barrow founded Macro Ops in 2015 alongside two former hedge fund colleagues, bringing a unique background combining military intelligence service and financial markets expertise. As a former US Marine Scout Sniper and Intelligence Professional specializing in Asian-Pacific economics, Barrow transitioned from over a decade in government service to consulting for Silicon Valley data intelligence firms before working at a global-macro hedge fund. He currently manages his own family office while leading Macro Ops, having published over 300 white papers on financial and macroeconomic topics. The platform operates with a small team including experienced professionals in value investing, options trading, and quantitative finance.
Macro Ops operates as a specialized investment research community emphasizing a multidimensional approach to investing at the intersection of macro/fundamentals, sentiment/positioning, and technical analysis. The platform is rooted in the Japanese ethos of 'Shokunin' (craftsmanship and continuous improvement), focusing on continuous mastery and holistic market analysis. Their signature 'Trifecta Approach' combines effective tools and stacks multiple conditional edges, blending techniques from deep value investing to technical tape reading. The community serves over 350 CIOs, portfolio managers, hedge funds, and family offices through institutional-grade research, proprietary tools, and collaborative learning environments.
Lead Portfolio Manager
Moderate Conviction Bullish
Market Conviction
The manager demonstrates high conviction on specific thematic bets—agricultural commodities, natural gas, and precious metals—with clear position sizing language ('very long,' 'long and buying') and specific entry points based on technical breakouts. The letter names specific positions (FCG, corn, KC wheat, cocoa target) and provides falsifiable catalysts (El Niño event, compression breakouts, positioning extremes). However, conviction is not at the highest levels because the portfolio is diversified across multiple asset classes and themes (PMs, currencies, biotech, healthcare, defense, Ags, natural gas, crypto) rather than concentrated in 1-5 core positions. The manager also demonstrates tactical flexibility by closing the bond short when conditions changed. The conviction is high on individual themes but spread across a multi-asset portfolio, placing it in the moderate-to-high range rather than extreme concentration territory.
Growth Outlook
Manager is constructive on solar markets specifically, seeing early bull cycle technicals and fundamental setup despite broader market concerns. Views current environment as creating new opportunities in Energy Security themes.
Risk Appetite
Portfolio is positioned for asymmetric risk/reward opportunities in bombed-out solar companies. Manager is actively deploying capital into cycle-low names with strategic value, showing clear risk-on positioning in the theme.
Capital Deployment
The manager is actively deploying capital into agricultural commodities and natural gas, with explicit 'long and buying' language for both. The letter describes looking to add GBP exposure and targeting cocoa for entry. However, this deployment is offset by the closure of the ultra bond short position and the acknowledgment that industry-wide net leverage was cut to a one-year low. No specific cash level changes are provided for the Macro Ops portfolio itself. The deployment activity is selective and thematic rather than broad-based, with capital being rotated from bonds into commodities and currencies rather than net new cash being put to work. This represents moderate, selective deployment rather than aggressive capital deployment across the portfolio.
Forward Guidance
Manager plans to continue building solar value chain positions and expects to provide basket of potential Solar Thematic bets. Clear deployment bias toward the theme with specific catalyst-driven timeline expectations.
Language Signal
The letter contains substantial bullish language around specific opportunities: 'major bull market,' 'major breakout,' 'significant bull rally,' 'attractive,' and 'constructive.' However, this is balanced by meaningful risk language including 'deteriorated,' 'fragility,' 'stretched,' 'pressuring,' 'concern,' 'weakening,' and 'poor returns.' The manager discusses both opportunities (Ags, natural gas, GBP) and risks (consumer weakness, elevated crowding, weak seasonality) in roughly equal measure. The language is directionally positive on specific themes but acknowledges broad market risks, resulting in a mildly positive but balanced tone overall.
Perceived Risk
Manager acknowledges significant geopolitical risks including potential China-Taiwan conflict, Section 232 investigation failure, and policy reversals. Risks are named and discussed in detail but framed as manageable within the investment framework.
Opportunity Density
The manager sees abundant opportunities across multiple asset classes and themes. The letter describes agricultural commodities as 'set up for a major bull market,' natural gas as showing 'constructive tapes,' GBP as 'setting up for a major breakout,' and precious metals as leading a commodity relay. Multiple specific opportunities are named: corn, KC wheat, cocoa (targeted for entry), FCG, EUR, MXN, GBP, and precious metals miners. The manager is actively identifying new setups and deploying capital into them. While some selectivity is required ('selective opportunities in defined areas'), the overall tone suggests a rich opportunity set across commodities, currencies, and select equity sectors. The breadth of opportunities across asset classes and the active identification of new entries supports a high opportunity density score.
Time Horizon
The manager's time horizon is primarily multi-year for core thematic positions. The agricultural commodity thesis is described as a 'major bull market' following a 30+ year compression breakout, with the El Niño event representing a multi-year fundamental driver. The natural gas setup references a 12+ month bull rally precedent. The Commodity Relay framework implies a multi-year sequence. However, the letter also focuses on near-term catalysts including Wednesday's PCE data and NVDA earnings, Friday's Jackson Hole speech, and the weak seasonality period through mid-October. The manager demonstrates tactical flexibility by closing the bond short quickly when conditions changed. The time horizon is medium-term (1-3 years) for core commodity themes with attention to near-term tactical adjustments and catalysts, rather than permanent capital or decade-plus holding periods.
Top Conviction Themes
Key Catalysts
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