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| Quarter | Letter Date | Fund Name | QTD | YTD | Tickers | Themes | Quick Take |
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"Macro Ops is up 51% year-to-date, positioned for a commodity supercycle led by agricultural breakouts from 30-year compression patterns. An extreme El Niño threatens global food supply."
Macro Ops returned +51.43% year-to-date through August 24, 2026, with the portfolio concentrated in precious metals and miners, EUR, MXN, ETH, biotech, healthcare, defense, agricultural commodities, and natural gas, while short the Dow. The core thesis centers on a multi-asset commodity bull market following the Commodity Relay pattern where precious metals lead, followed by industrial metals, energy, and agriculture. Agricultural commodities broke out from their tightest monthly compression in 30+ years, with the manager aggressively buying corn, wheat, and targeting cocoa. An incoming Super El Niño—described as the most significant since 1877—is expected to drive severe supply disruptions. Natural gas producers broke out from 2013 compression levels, prompting long positions. Currency positioning favors EUR, MXN, and GBP against a weakening dollar following bearish technical signals. The manager closed ultra bond shorts after Treasury intervention signaled opposition to higher long-end rates. While maintaining a bullish stance on risk assets, the outlook acknowledges increased volatility and rotation through mid-October's weak seasonality period, with the base case being trend up, volatility up, and continued sector rotation.
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