The curated database of hedge funds that publish investor letters. Research by geography, strategy, and schools of thought.
| # | Fund | Strategy | Style | Geography | AUM | Latest Letter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Multiples Capital returned -1.0% in Q2 2026 versus the S&P 500's 14.9% gain, bringing YTD returns to 11.6% versus 9.6% for the index. The manager's cautious positioning around Middle East energy risks proved mistaken as the market rallied narrowly on AI capital expenditure frenzy and strong earnings growth of 23.3%. America's energy independence via Strategic Petroleum Reserves and historic AI capex from mega-caps like Alphabet ($85B equity raise), Meta ($25B bonds), and Amazon ($81B debt) drove the rally. Winners included Velo3D on defense contract wins and South Korea semiconductor exposure, while Occidental Petroleum lagged on falling oil prices. Gold and miners whipsawed on dollar liquidity contraction, yield curve flattening, and China halting liquidity injections under new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's hawkish stance. Despite near-term rate volatility risks, the manager sees massive $2.5 trillion fiscal deficit preventing recession and expects markets to crash upwards in nominal terms. Strategic additions to regional banks, consumer names, and Asian markets position for broadening beyond AI concentration.
Multi-asset diversification across geographies and sectors will outperform as the bull market broadens beyond the narrow AI/semiconductor rally, supported by massive fiscal stimulus that prevents traditional recession despite near-term rate volatility.
The manager expects near-term market volatility from rate adjustment fears under new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, but believes the Iran crisis moving to the backburner and falling oil prices provide a counterbalance. The massive government fiscal deficit severely lowers the probability of a traditional recession, and following any near-term pullbacks or rate-driven shocks, the market will likely crash upwards in nominal terms. The manager believes the multi-asset framework will regain the spotlight as the bull market broadens out beyond the narrow AI/semiconductor focus.
As of Jul 17, 2026
Portfolio Manager and primary investment lead for None.
Neutral / Balanced
Market Conviction
The manager names only three specific portfolio positions with substantive commentary: Velo3D (VELO), South Korea exposure via EWY, and Occidental Petroleum (OXY). Position sizing is not disclosed beyond describing VELO as performing 'exceptionally well' and noting 'exposure' to South Korea. The letter discusses strategic additions to regional banks, consumer companies, Indian/Japanese markets, and shipping but does not name specific holdings or sizes. Multiple scenarios are presented around geopolitical risks, rate volatility, and market broadening without a single dominant thesis. The multi-asset, geographically diversified approach with hedged language ('I believe,' 'likely,' 'should') and acknowledgment of positioning mistakes this quarter reflects moderate conviction with significant diversification rather than concentrated high-conviction bets.
Growth Outlook
Risk Appetite
Capital Deployment
The manager describes 'strategic additions to regional banks, consumer companies, Indian/Japanese markets, and Shipping' by quarter end, indicating selective deployment. However, he also maintained a 'much more cautious stance this quarter' for most of Q2, suggesting limited net activity during the period. No specific cash level changes are disclosed. The letter describes rotation and selective additions rather than aggressive deployment or meaningful cash reduction. The additions appear tactical and measured rather than representing a major shift in net exposure. This reflects mild deployment activity from a cautious base.
Forward Guidance
Language Signal
The letter contains balanced directional language. Bullish terms include 'boomed,' 'resilience,' 'frenzy,' 'robust,' 'exceptionally well,' 'strong operational momentum,' 'structurally constructive,' and 'crash upwards in nominal terms.' Bearish language includes 'cautious stance,' 'underperformed,' 'headwinds,' 'whipsaw,' 'pressure,' 'liquidity drain,' and 'test markets.' The manager discusses both winners (Velo3D, South Korea) and losers (OXY, gold miners) in balanced fashion. Risk language around rate adjustments and market narrowness is offset by opportunity language around fiscal stimulus and market broadening. The net balance is slightly positive but relatively balanced overall.
Perceived Risk
Opportunity Density
The manager sees selective opportunities emerging as the market broadens beyond AI/semiconductors. He executed 'strategic additions to regional banks, consumer companies, Indian/Japanese markets, and Shipping' and states 'I believe our multi-asset framework will regain the spotlight as the bull market broadens out.' The letter highlights specific winners like Velo3D and South Korea semiconductor exposure while noting iconic consumer and tech brands trading at 5-11 year lows, implying potential value opportunities. However, the opportunity set is characterized as requiring selectivity and geographic/sector diversification rather than being broadly abundant. The manager sees defined areas of opportunity in the broadening trade but acknowledges the market was 'extraordinarily narrow' in Q2.
Time Horizon
The manager discusses both near-term catalysts and medium-to-long-term themes. Near-term focus includes rate adjustment fears that 'will likely test markets in the near term' and quarterly earnings growth expectations. However, he also describes 'long-term tailwinds of AI adoption,' states he 'remains structurally constructive on precious metals and miners in the medium to long term,' and expects markets to 'crash upwards' following near-term volatility. The multi-asset framework and geographic diversification suggest a patient approach, but the letter also discusses quarterly positioning adjustments and tactical additions. The time horizon appears to be 1-3 years with some catalyst dependency around market broadening and fiscal stimulus effects, balanced between medium-term themes and near-term tactical positioning.
Top Conviction Themes
Key Catalysts
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