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| Quarter | Letter Date | Fund Name | QTD | YTD | Tickers | Themes | Quick Take |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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"Multiples Capital underperformed in Q2 as cautious energy positioning missed the narrow AI/semiconductor rally driven by historic capex and strong earnings. Velo3D and South Korea exposure won while oil and gold lagged on geopolitical de-escalation and dollar liquidity contraction."
Multiples Capital returned -1.0% in Q2 2026 versus the S&P 500's 14.9% gain, bringing YTD returns to 11.6% versus 9.6% for the index. The manager's cautious positioning around Middle East energy risks proved mistaken as the market rallied narrowly on AI capital expenditure frenzy and strong earnings growth of 23.3%. America's energy independence via Strategic Petroleum Reserves and historic AI capex from mega-caps like Alphabet ($85B equity raise), Meta ($25B bonds), and Amazon ($81B debt) drove the rally. Winners included Velo3D on defense contract wins and South Korea semiconductor exposure, while Occidental Petroleum lagged on falling oil prices. Gold and miners whipsawed on dollar liquidity contraction, yield curve flattening, and China halting liquidity injections under new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's hawkish stance. Despite near-term rate volatility risks, the manager sees massive $2.5 trillion fiscal deficit preventing recession and expects markets to crash upwards in nominal terms. Strategic additions to regional banks, consumer names, and Asian markets position for broadening beyond AI concentration.
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