The curated database of hedge funds that publish investor letters. Research by geography, strategy, and schools of thought.
| # | Fund | Strategy | Style | Geography | AUM | Latest Letter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The ultimate driver of modern financial markets is artificial intelligence, which has effectively eclipsed the Federal Reserve's rate policy as the primary influence on corporate valuations and investor sentiment. As Kevin Warsh prepares to take over as Fed Chair, his potential policy changes—including a preference for trimmed-mean inflation measures and a commitment to reducing the central bank's balance sheet—will introduce complex new dynamics to fixed income markets. His framework could provide intellectual cover for rate cuts by showing inflation closer to target, yet his inherited committee may resist sudden dovish pivots, especially with persistent energy and geopolitical pressures. Additionally, aggressive balance sheet runoff risks disrupting overnight funding markets, while scaling back forward guidance could elevate treasury volatility. Historically, every press conference and dot plot moved billions of dollars in assets, but this traditional grip has weakened. Ultimately, however, mega-cap equity performance is being driven by AI-related productivity gains and capital spending rather than monetary policy. Investors should brace for increased fixed-income volatility and a steeper yield curve, while recognizing that the Fed's traditional grip on overall market sentiment has weakened significantly relative to technological forces.
The core driver of modern financial markets has shifted from Federal Reserve monetary policy to artificial intelligence positioning and structural disinflationary productivity.
Monetary policy shifts under the new Fed chair may elevate fixed income volatility and steepen the yield curve, while AI will remain the primary secular force driving market returns.
As of Mar 31, 2026
Ocean Park Asset Management was founded in 1987 by Dr. Kenneth L. Sleeper and David C. Wright, establishing over 35 years of experience in disciplined investment management. The current leadership team includes CEO Skip Schweiss, Chief Investment Officer James St. Aubin, and Chief Investment Strategist Ryan Harder, who collectively oversee the firm's tactical investment strategies. The firm employs 8 financial advisors and 13 total advisors managing approximately 292 client accounts with an average account size of $16.7 million. Ocean Park serves a diverse clientele including individuals, high-net-worth individuals, pension and profit-sharing plans, charitable organizations, corporations, investment companies, government entities, and other investment advisers. The management team has demonstrated strong asset gathering capabilities, growing assets under management to nearly $5 billion as of December 2024. The firm maintains SEC registration since November 2007 and operates with robust regulatory compliance across multiple states. Recent expansion includes the July 2024 launch of four actively-managed ETFs, demonstrating the management team's commitment to product innovation and client service enhancement.
Ocean Park employs a disciplined, tactical, rules-based investment process centered on capital preservation through their 'duck' analogy - instinctively protecting portfolios when market threats emerge. The firm's approach emphasizes three core components: trend following, security selection based on strong risk-adjusted returns during uptrends, and trailing stop disciplines that quantitatively signal sell decisions during downtrends. Their tactical process includes the ability to shift portfolios to 100% cash during significant market downturns, prioritizing drawdown avoidance over performance during volatile periods. The firm seeks to buy securities exhibiting strong risk-adjusted returns during recent uptrends while maintaining strict adherence to rules rather than emotional decision-making. Founded on over 35 years of experience since 1987, Ocean Park's philosophy emphasizes active tactical management rather than passive buy-and-hold strategies, with diversification at multiple levels including position, sector, and management approaches.
Lead Portfolio Manager
Moderate Conviction Bearish
Market Conviction
The score of 0.35 reflects a low-moderate conviction level as the letter consists entirely of broad macroeconomic and thematic analysis. No specific portfolio positions are named, sized, or discussed with concrete action plans.
Growth Outlook
The manager maintains a balanced, net-neutral outlook on the market, noting that while fixed income face near-term volatility from policy shifts, AI continues to provide a strong structural tailwind for equities. The commentary avoids clear bullish or bearish projections.
Risk Appetite
There is no explicit discussion of active risk-taking, leverage, or defensive positioning. The fund's risk appetite appears balanced and watchful as they assess how the upcoming Fed transition impacts fixed income and broader market structures.
Capital Deployment
Capital deployment is rated 0.50 as there is no mention of cash levels, asset purchases, or specific portfolio transactions. The fund appears to be in a holding or monitoring pattern.
Forward Guidance
The manager does not provide specific directional signals regarding their near-term deployment of capital. Instead, they outline a monitoring stance focused on fixed-income volatility, yield curve steepening, and AI positioning.
Language Signal
The tone of the letter is analytical and balanced, weighing the risks of balance sheet runoff and political interference against the positive structural forces of AI. Consequently, the net directional language signal remains neutral.
Perceived Risk
The manager identifies meaningful risks, particularly around aggressive balance sheet runoff causing repo market seizures, potential increases in fixed-income volatility due to reduced forward guidance, and political interference unsettling inflation expectations.
Opportunity Density
Opportunity density is evaluated at 0.50, representing a standard environment. While mega-cap AI names offer strong structural opportunities, the fixed-income sector presents increased complexity and volatility under the prospective Fed regime.
Time Horizon
The manager references a medium-term outlook, particularly when discussing the less clear medium-term picture for fixed income and the decades-long process of balance sheet unwinding. This suggests an investment horizon of 1 to 3 years.
Top Conviction Themes
Key Catalysts
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