Investment Pitches

Pitch Summary:
Alliance Aviation Services is effectively “in play,” with a strategic review underway, multiple senior departures, AGM delay, and press reports of PE bidders circling. The company operates two core segments—Contract charter flights to mining/energy sites and Wet Lease airline operations—and is coming off a multi-year fleet expansion that has temporarily inflated maintenance capex and depressed true earnings power. Rumors indicate Pacific Equity Partners is evaluating a bid, with Qantas potentially open to selling its 19% stake at the right price. The setup resembles the 2022 attempted acquisition by Qantas at A$4.75/share—nearly 2x today's level—highlighting embedded strategic value even if that deal isn't a perfect comp. Shares still trade below book (0.86x P/BV) despite consistent 10%+ ROEs and sub-2x leverage, far cheaper than a contracted operator should. Normalized EV/(EBITDA–maintenance capex) is ~7x, well below historic ranges, creating a highly attractive entry point for a bid. A realistic takeout range appears A$3.20–3.50 (30–40% upside), with potential for higher given competitive tension.

BSD Analysis:
Alliance Aviation Services is effectively “in play,” with a strategic review underway, multiple senior departures, AGM delay, and press reports of PE bidders circling. The company operates two core segments—Contract charter flights to mining/energy sites and Wet Lease airline operations—and is coming off a multi-year fleet expansion that has temporarily inflated maintenance capex and depressed true earnings power. Rumors indicate Pacific Equity Partners is evaluating a bid, with Qantas potentially open to selling its 19% stake at the right price. The setup resembles the 2022 attempted acquisition by Qantas at A$4.75/share—nearly 2x today's level—highlighting embedded strategic value even if that deal isn't a perfect comp. Shares still trade below book (0.86x P/BV) despite consistent 10%+ ROEs and sub-2x leverage, far cheaper than a contracted operator should. Normalized EV/(EBITDA–maintenance capex) is ~7x, well below historic ranges, creating a highly attractive entry point for a bid. A realistic takeout range appears A$3.20–3.50 (30–40% upside), with potential for higher given competitive tension.

Pitch Summary:
Cantrip raised new capital at approximately three times the valuation of the fund’s January 2024 investment, reflecting rapid growth and strong market traction. The company’s management has demonstrated exceptional capital efficiency, scaling distribution while maintaining profitability discipline.

BSD Analysis:
Cantrip’s latest financing at a 3x markup validates the accelerating demand for THC and CBD-infused beverages within the regulated consumer market. The management team’s focus on capital efficiency and scalable distribution differentiates Cantrip from peers in a sector often constrained by overexpansion. With expanding retail partnerships, improving gross margins, and early evidence of repeat customer adoption, Cantrip appears poised to capture a dominant position in the emerging cannabis beverage category. The company’s asset-light model and profitability trajectory provide a rare blend of growth and risk control.

Pitch Summary:
Glass House (OTC: GLASF) became available for trading on Robinhood this quarter, broadening retail investor access and visibility. As one of the largest vertically integrated cannabis companies in California, the listing enhances liquidity and exposure ahead of potential federal reform. The company remains well-positioned to capitalize on brand strength and scale advantages as investor access improves.

BSD Analysis:
The listing on Robinhood marks a critical inflection for Glass House, providing improved market access and liquidity at a time when institutional capital remains cautious. The company’s vertically integrated model—spanning cultivation, processing, and retail—provides operational leverage in the largest U.S. cannabis market. With EV/EBITDA under 6x and expanding wholesale margins, Glass House stands to benefit from both improved investor sentiment and incremental pricing normalization. Potential federal rescheduling or SAFE Banking progress could catalyze significant valuation uplift relative to peers.

Pitch Summary:
Vireo (OTC: VREOF) experienced significant volatility this quarter, dropping from $0.70 to $0.32 due to a likely portfolio liquidation, before rebounding on major positive developments. The company received approval to commence adult-use cannabis sales in Minnesota, which should add $30–45 million in EBITDA to its existing $100 million run rate. Vireo also acquired the senior debt of Schwazze, a distressed operator in Colorado and New Mexico, at around 3x EBITDA—a highly accretive move. Management expects Q3 results to show strong growth and guidance improvements. We remain bullish given the undervaluation, trading at roughly 4x its 2026 EBITDA estimates while growing 50–100% year over year.

BSD Analysis:
Mindset Value takes a deeply fundamental and opportunistic view on Vireo, emphasizing its positioning as one of the best risk-reward setups in U.S. cannabis. The Minnesota adult-use launch provides near-term EBITDA expansion and validates the company’s vertically integrated model. The Schwazze debt acquisition adds optionality for asset consolidation at attractive valuations. Despite volatility in OTC markets, Vireo’s forward EV/EBITDA multiple near 4x appears substantially below peers trading at 7–9x. With projected EBITDA doubling within 18 months and catalysts from state-level reform and cross-market synergies, Vireo is positioned for re-rating as liquidity and scale improve.

Pitch Summary:
UnitedHealth was added via reallocation from outperforming positions. The firm’s scale, diversified earnings mix, and data-driven efficiency make it a long-term compounder in managed care.

BSD Analysis:
Bristol Gate views UNH as the premier U.S. healthcare franchise with durable competitive advantages across insurance and analytics. Optum’s consistent growth, cost synergies, and expansion into value-based care sustain high single-digit earnings growth. Strong balance sheet, dividend growth, and valuation near historical lows offer an appealing entry point.

Pitch Summary:
Marsh & McLennan was sold amid a softening insurance rate environment and slowing consulting demand due to macro uncertainty. Declining commercial insurance pricing pressures near-term cash flows and dividend growth.

BSD Analysis:
MMC’s operating leverage to commercial insurance pricing leaves it vulnerable to cyclical downturns. While a premier broker with high recurring revenue, the soft pricing cycle and discretionary consulting weakness justify a tactical exit. Dividend growth likely slows until pricing recovers.

Pitch Summary:
Amphenol was added post-quarter, viewed as a high-quality franchise with proprietary technology, vertical integration, and customer intimacy enabling pricing power and sticky share. Its Information and Datacom segment benefits from robust data center and connectivity demand. Consensus forecasts likely underestimate growth.

BSD Analysis:
Amphenol’s exposure to data center interconnect and sensor markets positions it for sustained double-digit EPS growth. Its entrepreneurial culture, strong balance sheet, and consistent capital returns underpin reliable dividend expansion. Trading at ~25x forward P/E, APH remains a durable compounder in high-tech connectivity.

Pitch Summary:
Intuit shares declined on conservative FY2026 guidance, forecasting 12% revenue and 14.5% EPS growth, slightly below consensus. Weakness in MailChimp and TurboTax units drove investor disappointment, though management emphasized growth in assisted tax and enterprise accounting.

BSD Analysis:
Intuit’s disciplined strategy toward higher-value customers, recurring SaaS revenue, and cross-sell within its ecosystem support long-term compounding. With double-digit EPS growth, robust cash flow, and margin resilience, Intuit’s fundamentals remain strong. Near-term sentiment-driven weakness provides an attractive re-entry point for a high-ROIC software franchise.

Pitch Summary:
Accenture’s stock fell following industry peer Gartner’s weak results, sparking fears of AI disintermediation in consulting. However, Accenture tripled its AI-related revenue to $2.7B and nearly doubled GenAI bookings to $5.9B in FY2025, reinforcing its leadership in digital transformation.

BSD Analysis:
Bristol Gate maintains conviction that Accenture’s diversified business model and deep client integration position it as a long-term AI enabler rather than a casualty. Historical precedents show that technology revolutions drive greater enterprise consulting demand, not less. With robust FCF conversion, steady dividend growth, and expanding digital offerings, ACN remains a high-quality compounder despite short-term sentiment weakness.

Pitch Summary:
Carrier’s shares declined despite meeting earnings expectations, as investors focused on weakness in U.S. residential HVAC orders and unfavorable product mix. CEO David Gitlin warned of lower Q3 volume, citing a 30% reduction in July industry volumes and similar declines expected through September. Elevated rates and dealer destocking pressured demand.

BSD Analysis:
Carrier faces near-term cyclical headwinds from elevated interest rates, slowing housing demand, and inventory normalization. While its long-term position in HVAC and building automation remains strong, margin compression and macro uncertainty limit upside. A recovery in 2026 tied to lower rates and energy-efficient retrofits could reignite growth, but visibility remains muted in the near term.

Pitch Summary:
GE Aerospace delivered strong quarterly results with more than 20% growth across key metrics—orders, revenue, operating profit, and EPS. The Commercial Engines & Services segment saw a 29% rise in service revenue and a 45% increase in engine units, supported by backlog strength and improving supply chains. The company raised FY2025 guidance and long-term targets.

BSD Analysis:
GE Aerospace’s execution in engine production and aftermarket services demonstrates structural earnings power. With 20%+ organic growth, improving free cash flow, and a $45B+ backlog, the company is well-positioned for sustained cash generation. Supply-chain normalization enhances visibility, and capital returns remain a long-term lever for shareholder value.

Pitch Summary:
Thermo Fisher’s stock climbed 9% following better-than-expected Q2 2025 results, with revenue of $10.85B versus $10.68B consensus and EPS of $5.36/share versus $5.22/share. Organic growth of 2% and reaffirmed long-term guidance reversed poor sentiment and re-rated shares.

BSD Analysis:
Bristol Gate views Thermo Fisher as a durable growth compounder supported by recurring revenue streams in biopharma and diagnostics. With strong pricing power, resilient margins, and consistent capital returns, the company remains a high-quality defensive holding. Its innovation-driven portfolio and steady mid-single-digit growth support sustainable dividend compounding and FCF generation.

Pitch Summary:
Broadcom reported its third-quarter results on September 4, which exceeded analyst expectations for both revenue and EPS. The highlight of the quarter was the addition of a fourth significant customer for its custom AI accelerator (XPU) products, placing over $10 billion in orders to be shipped in Q3 2026. Continued growth from existing clients and this major new contract position Broadcom for AI revenue growth exceeding 50–60% in 2026. The company’s backlog now stands at $110 billion, with over half from semiconductors.

BSD Analysis:
Broadcom’s leadership in custom AI silicon and networking underpins one of the strongest secular growth profiles in semiconductors. Its $110B backlog validates structural demand, and 50%+ AI-driven sales growth highlights its strategic alignment with hyperscalers’ compute self-sufficiency race. With EBITDA margins approaching 65%, robust FCF generation, and a disciplined capital allocation framework, AVGO remains a key AI infrastructure compounder. At ~22x forward EPS, valuation appears reasonable given the firm’s expanding moat and data center tailwinds.

Pitch Summary:
Spotify has been part of our portfolio for more than seven years, and while it remains a well-managed, founder-led compounder, we reduced the position to reallocate capital to higher-conviction ideas such as Tesla. Spotify has delivered a long-term IRR of roughly 13% since our initial purchase. The company’s competitive advantages remain intact, but we believe much of the anticipated growth and margin expansion is now reflected in its current valuation. Its moat, while stable, is not widening materially.

BSD Analysis:
Spotify’s fundamentals remain solid—strong user growth, rising ARPU, and profitability inflection—but its strategic optionality lags peers with broader ecosystems. While podcasts and advertising offer incremental margin expansion, competition from Apple, YouTube, and TikTok constrains pricing power. The company’s focus on gross margin optimization through automation and reduced content costs will drive modest upside, but it lacks the multi-layered platform dynamics that define higher-conviction compounders. Trading near 25x forward FCF, SPOT appears fairly valued, prompting Rowan Street’s partial exit.

Pitch Summary:
Tesla (TSLA) is our newest position, initiated during a period of widespread pessimism earlier this year when sentiment around the company and its CEO was at rock bottom. Since initiating our position at roughly $235 per share, the stock has appreciated roughly 75% and now represents about 12% of the portfolio. Tesla’s evolution from a car company into a vertically integrated technology and energy platform with multiple reinforcing moats underpins our conviction. Its manufacturing efficiency, vast real-world driving dataset, direct-to-consumer model, and expanding AI and robotics initiatives position Tesla as one of the most formidable businesses globally. The company’s multiple layers of competitive advantage—manufacturing, data, ecosystem, brand, and platform optionality—set the stage for long-term compounding.

BSD Analysis:
Rowan Street’s thesis centers on Tesla’s transformation into an ecosystem-based AI and energy enterprise rather than a mere automaker. Its vertically integrated model combines manufacturing innovation (gigacasting, battery packs, Dojo training), the world’s largest real-world driving dataset (6M+ vehicles), and a proprietary AI stack trained on live video. These elements together enable exponential FSD (Full Self-Driving) improvements and cost advantages no competitor can replicate. Its direct sales and charging networks create sticky customer engagement and network effects, while its future optionality—robotaxis, humanoid robots (Optimus), and Megapack energy storage—provides asymmetrical upside. Despite cyclical concerns, Tesla’s balance sheet strength, 30%+ gross margins on premium models, and long-term AI monetization justify its premium valuation as an enduring compounder.

Pitch Summary:
New Pacific Metals operates three Bolivian projects—Silver Sand, Carangas, and Silverstrike—that could collectively become the world’s second-largest silver production hub after Pan American Silver. With 40%+ IRRs at $30 silver and confirmed volume breakout in September, the setup offers significant upside potential. The company is now in the permitting stage for both flagship deposits.

BSD Analysis:
Macro Ops highlights NEWP as a high-beta silver developer leveraged to silver’s cyclical upswing. With multiple large deposits, 40%+ IRRs, and favorable technical momentum, the project pipeline could drive re-rating as silver prices stabilize.