Investment Pitches

Pitch Summary:
Smiths is a UK-based industrial conglomerate operating four segments: John Crane (specialty seals/flow control solutions for energy/power and industrials, ~48% of op profit), Flex-Tek (HVAC and industrial specialty tubing, 24%), Smiths Detection (inspection/screening systems for airport and border security, 15%), and Smiths Interconnect (specialty connectors and electronics, 13%). Historically, Smiths has been perceived by markets as a sleepy, overly diversified conglomerate. Pressured by activist investors (including Elliott, according to the FT) management has committed to drastically simplifying its business by exiting the Interconnect and Detection units (the former to be announced by year-end, the latter next year). Key elements of Upslope's investment thesis include: • Attractive core businesses (John Crane + Flex-Tek) that benefit from the "low cost, high importance" nature of their products and strong competitive positions. Although each unit serves reasonably cyclical end markets, they both have a very high (70%+ in the case of John Crane) portion of sales coming from recurring maintenance/aftermarket business. These positive attributes contribute to consistent delivery of mid-20s ROCE and steady mid-single digit organic revenue growth. • Significant catalysts likely on the horizon with active portfolio reshaping. "Future Smiths" will be a far more nimble, focused business, retaining the company's most competitively advantaged units. • Strong capital return program – In recent years, Smiths has maintained an active and reasonably aggressive buyback program. From July 2021 (FYE) to Jan 2025 average shares outstanding declined by almost 15%. In January, Smiths added another £350mm (5% of current market cap) to its buyback authorization. • Reasonable valuation and strong balance sheet – despite near-term catalysts for unlocking value and a stronger-than-usual balance sheet (<0.5x net vs. ~1-2x historically), Smiths trades in-line with its average historical valuation multiples (11x NTM EBITDA, 17x P/E). Key risks include: delays or failure in portfolio restructuring, cyclical (energy/industrial) downturn, cyber security threats/liabilities (early 2025 incident), and FX (~3/4 of revenue from outside Europe – largely US).

BSD Analysis:
Upslope presents a compelling turnaround thesis for Smiths Group centered on activist-driven portfolio simplification and value unlocking. The manager highlights the company's transformation from a sleepy conglomerate to a focused industrial player retaining only its highest-quality segments (John Crane and Flex-Tek). The investment case is anchored by strong recurring revenue characteristics, with over 70% of John Crane's sales from aftermarket services, driving consistent mid-20s ROCE and steady growth. Management's commitment to exit lower-margin Detection and Interconnect divisions should create a more nimble, focused entity. The aggressive capital return program, including a recent £350mm buyback authorization representing 5% of market cap, demonstrates management's confidence and shareholder-friendly approach. Despite multiple near-term catalysts and an improved balance sheet, the stock trades at historical valuation multiples, suggesting limited downside risk with significant upside potential as the restructuring unfolds.

Pitch Summary:
The Team is also adding to its position in Capital Power preferred equity. The Team recently added to its position in Capital Power (CPX) preferred securities at a bond‑equivalent yield of 9%. In April 2025, the company raised common equity (which ranks behind preferred equity) in conjunction with an acquisition of U.S. natural gas‑fired electricity generation assets. The company continues to have a conservative capital structure with improving credit quality as the proportion of earnings coming from the U.S. gas‑fired generation continues to grow. U.S. natural gas‑fired electricity generation is in a secular growth period due to the need for reliable baseload generation in conjunction with the growth of renewable energy.

BSD Analysis:
The manager identifies an attractive opportunity in Capital Power's preferred securities, offering a compelling 9% bond-equivalent yield with improving credit fundamentals. The company's recent equity raise to fund U.S. natural gas generation acquisitions demonstrates strategic capital allocation while strengthening the preferred equity's position in the capital structure. The investment thesis centers on the secular growth in U.S. natural gas-fired generation, driven by the critical need for reliable baseload power to complement intermittent renewable energy sources. Capital Power's conservative capital structure provides downside protection while the growing proportion of U.S. gas-fired earnings enhances credit quality over time. The manager's focus on preferred securities offers attractive income generation with lower volatility than common equity. This position aligns with the fund's strategy of capturing secular energy transition themes through credit instruments. The timing appears opportune given the increasing recognition of natural gas as a bridge fuel in the energy transition.

Pitch Summary:
Most recently, the Team has been adding to its position in Fluence Energy (FLNC) debt. FLNC is a Virginia‑based utility‑scale battery storage contractor. The Team recently added to its position in Fluence Energy (FLNC) 2.25% of 2030 convertible bonds at a price of 69.00 (10.5% yield). The position was initiated in March 2025, with an average cost of 57 and with entry trades ranging from the 40s to the 60s. FLNC is a Virginia‑based utility‑scale battery storage contractor that is two‑thirds owned together by Siemens AG and AES Corporation. We like the bonds because of the company's conservative capital structure (this is its only debt and there is more cash than debt), the strong secular industry trend in electricity generation favouring battery storage, its critical mass/market share and its well‑capitalized majority shareholders. While there is an out‑of‑the‑money call option attached to the convertible bond, we view the merits of the credit profile as justifying investment in its converts even before considering potential equity upside. Buying "busted" convertible bonds in times of market dislocation has been a well‑established playbook for the Team through various market cycles.

BSD Analysis:
The manager presents a compelling credit investment thesis for Fluence Energy's convertible bonds, emphasizing the company's conservative capital structure with more cash than debt and minimal leverage. The investment capitalizes on the secular growth trend in utility-scale battery storage, driven by increasing electricity demand from AI data centers and renewable energy integration. The manager's entry strategy demonstrates disciplined execution, accumulating positions during market dislocation at attractive yields of 10.5%. The company's strategic ownership by Siemens AG and AES Corporation provides additional financial backing and industry expertise. The convertible structure offers potential equity upside while the credit profile provides downside protection. The manager's track record of successfully investing in "busted" convertibles during market cycles adds credibility to the strategy. This position aligns with the fund's focus on secular investment themes with strong fundamental support.

Pitch Summary:
Trigano SA was in the 2013 to 2018 cohort of securities that delivered returns to shareholders in excess of 4x money. It returned over 14x money in that period. Further, Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway owns Forest River Inc., which is a very similar business to Trigano. Buffett acquired this business 20 years ago for $800mn and according to Buffett's most recent chairman's letter, this deal has made Berkshire 'many billions of dollars'. It seemed reasonable to understand Trigano in more depth. Trigano is the Paris listed European market leader in the design, assembly and sale of motorhomes and towable 'caravans', collectively Recreational Vehicles (RVs). The company has gained market share from 15% of total new RV registrations in 2013 to 31% currently through a combination of organic growth of 8.5% annually and acquisitions, which have contributed another 7.5% to annual revenue growth. This growth has been at attractive returns on capital. Unlevered ROE has averaged 21% over this period including all goodwill acquired & earnings per share is up roughly 10x over this period. The company has a net cash balance sheet, and is 57% owned by the founder and chairman, Francois Feuillet who is 77yrs old. The company is valued in the equity market at €2.5bn and we acquired our shares at 6x LTM earnings and 1.2x book value. Like Forest River, Trigano is a capital-light designer and assembler of RVs. The company designs the units according to national or regional preferences, buys in c.90% of all the components required to build an RV including chassis/powertrain, assembles the RV and sells it into the distribution network, of which they own a portion. For a €60,000 RV, 75% of the cost of the unit is the components purchased from external suppliers. Purchasing terms are therefore very important. It is also capital light: 75% of Trigano's tangible assets are current – mainly inventories available for sale – which the company turns over c.4x per year and the company needs less than 15% of cash generated annually to maintain the business. Trigano has many of the same competitive advantages in the motorhome industry that Ryanair has in air travel. It is the lowest cost producer, which is the result of buying advantages and a culture of keeping costs low. This has resulted in consistent volume market share gains and declining unit costs, which results in the economic space to re-invest in product quality and lowering prices to the end consumer ahead of competition, which widens its moat year after year. Trigano manages to do this while generating operating margins of 10-13% versus competitors doing less than half this level of margin – it is more profitable, has lower unit costs and has consistently taken market share as a result. Its balance sheet is another source of competitive advantage. Trigano has consistently been run with no debt funding which is in stark contrast to its smaller competitors who are both debt funded and less profitable. The relevance of this is acute given the cyclicality of the industry (similar to Ryanair). A strong balance sheet has been good defence and enabled strong offense – management have consistently acquired assets at the bottom of the cycle at attractive returns over the past 15 years. These acquisitions have only added to Trigano's competitive advantages. Case in point is their 2017 acquisition of ADRIA, a Slovenian RV manufacturer for €230mn. Prior to the acquisition, ADRIA was doing €28mn of net income. One year later, under Trigano's ownership it was doing €59mn of net income, more than double the year before, principally the result of Trigano aligning it with the group's purchasing terms. The result: a 26% post tax return on shareholder capital in year one. This is one example of many in the company's recent history. The business also has nice growth tail winds. Volume growth in the industry has averaged 4% per annum over the past 15 years driven in part by demographics. The average customer is 57yrs old, uses their unit for 77 nights per year with an average trip length of 5 nights. Given the demographics in Europe, this tailwind is likely to continue driving industry volume growth over our investment horizon. I expect Trigano to continue to take market share on top of this and allocate capital inorganically where the opportunity arises. Of course, the business faces risks internally and externally. I believe these are manageable. Notably, the founder and chief architect of this business' success is 77 years of age and there is no clear succession plan for the business except a sale of the company. I can see this business becoming part of a larger conglomerate just as Forest River is now part of Berkshire Hathaway. Other risks include the transition of the powertrains from diesel to electric and associated regulation. For each risk, I also see potential opportunity given Trigano's relative strength vs smaller, less profitable and encumbered competitors in Europe. We have acquired our stake in Trigano at a double-digit free cash flow yield, and the business is likely to grow organically in the high single digits before any accretive use of free cash flow. This puts us in good position to compound our capital at returns in excess of our hurdle rate with a strong margin of safety owing to the competitive position and astute management at the helm.

BSD Analysis:
Highwood initiated a new position in Trigano SA, the European market leader in recreational vehicles, at an attractive 6x LTM earnings valuation. The manager's thesis centers on Trigano's dominant competitive position as the lowest-cost producer in the RV industry, similar to Ryanair's advantage in aviation. The company has demonstrated exceptional execution, growing market share from 15% to 31% over the past decade while maintaining superior operating margins of 10-13% versus competitors at half that level. Trigano's capital-light business model, net cash balance sheet, and proven acquisition track record provide significant competitive advantages, particularly during industry downturns when they can acquire distressed assets at attractive returns. The demographic tailwinds supporting RV demand, combined with Trigano's ability to continue taking market share, support the organic growth outlook. While succession planning presents a key risk given the 77-year-old founder's control, this could also create M&A opportunities similar to Berkshire's Forest River acquisition. The investment offers compelling risk-adjusted returns with double-digit free cash flow yields and high single-digit organic growth potential.

Pitch Summary:
We made one new purchase in the quarter: Novo Nordisk (NVO), which we have owned previously. NVO, a Danish pharmaceutical company, is the world's leading insulin maker. But today the company's growth is driven by its GLP-1 franchise, which comprises Ozempic, Wegovy and Rybelsus. The stock has come under pressure following the uptake of competitor Eli Lilly's (LLY) GLP-1 products Mounjaro and Zepbound. LLY will likely continue to gain share, but we believe the market for GLP-1s is large enough for both companies to continue increasing their revenues, and that the market is undervaluing NVO's GLP-1 pipeline.

BSD Analysis:
GreensKeeper initiated a new position in Novo Nordisk, viewing the recent stock pressure from Eli Lilly competition as a buying opportunity. The manager recognizes Novo Nordisk's established leadership in insulin while emphasizing the transformative growth potential of the GLP-1 franchise including Ozempic, Wegovy, and Rybelsus. Despite acknowledging that Eli Lilly will likely gain market share with Mounjaro and Zepbound, the fund believes the GLP-1 market is sufficiently large to support multiple winners and continued revenue growth for both companies. The manager's contrarian approach focuses on the market's undervaluation of Novo Nordisk's GLP-1 pipeline, suggesting confidence in the company's innovation capabilities and competitive positioning. This represents a classic value investing approach of purchasing quality companies during temporary competitive pressures when valuations become attractive.

Pitch Summary:
Our second-largest laggard in the quarter was Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B/A) -8.8%. The most significant update at Berkshire was Warren Buffett's surprise announcement that at the end of the year, he will retire as CEO, a position he has held for 60 years. It came as no surprise that Buffett will pass the torch to Canadian Greg Abel, who has been Vice Chairman of non-insurance operations for nearly a decade. While we are saddened to see Warren stepping down as CEO (he will stay on the board as Chairman), it doesn't fundamentally change our intrinsic value estimate of the company, and we have been assuming a pending change in leadership for many years now.

BSD Analysis:
GreensKeeper maintains a measured perspective on Berkshire Hathaway despite Warren Buffett's announced CEO retirement after 60 years of leadership. The manager demonstrates preparedness for this transition, noting they have anticipated the leadership change for years and that it doesn't alter their intrinsic valuation of the company. The fund expresses confidence in the succession plan, highlighting Greg Abel's decade-long experience as Vice Chairman of non-insurance operations and his Canadian background. While acknowledging emotional attachment to Buffett's leadership, the manager's analytical approach focuses on business fundamentals rather than personality-driven factors. The neutral stance reflects GreensKeeper's view that Berkshire's diversified business model, strong culture, and established succession planning will ensure continuity of value creation beyond the founder's direct involvement.

Pitch Summary:
Our worst performer in the second quarter was Fiserv (FI) -21.9%. The market reacted badly to Fiserv's Q1 earnings release, in which it revealed that volume growth of its core Clover system was 8%, slowing from the 16% it averaged last year. The stock came under further pressure when management revealed that Clover's business was growing at a similar pace to start Q2. Our view is that the slowdown in Clover's growth isn't due to a deteriorating competitive position, but due to a combination of slowing industry growth and lingering impacts from hyperinflation in some of the company's fastest-growing markets. After recalculating our valuation for the stock, we believe the decline was overdone and added to our position throughout the quarter.

BSD Analysis:
Despite Fiserv's significant 21.9% quarterly decline, GreensKeeper maintains conviction in the investment thesis and views the selloff as an opportunity. The manager attributes the Clover system's growth deceleration from 16% to 8% to external factors rather than competitive deterioration, specifically citing slowing industry growth and hyperinflation impacts in key markets. This analysis suggests the manager believes the growth slowdown is cyclical rather than structural, indicating confidence in Clover's competitive positioning and long-term prospects. The fund's decision to add to the position during the decline demonstrates strong conviction in their valuation work and contrarian investment approach. GreensKeeper's assessment that the market reaction was overdone suggests they view current prices as attractive relative to the company's intrinsic value and long-term earnings potential.

Pitch Summary:
Rounding out our top 3 for the quarter was Compagnie Financière Richemont SA (CFR:SWX) +8.5%. The company's core Jewellery Maisons (Cartier and Van Cleef & Arpels) continue to prove more durable than nearly any other luxury jewelry brand. Our original thesis—that the top branded jewelry brands would outperform the luxury sector over time—is largely playing out with Richemont's jewelry segment growing 11% in the most recent quarter. Richemont may have a few more tricks up its sleeve. Since acquiring Italian jeweller Buccellati in 2019, sales have increased almost 5x following a strong 2025. Additionally, Richemont recently expanded its portfolio with the acquisition of another Italian jeweller, Vhernier, in June. Both brands were acquired for relatively low dollar amounts, and management continues to manage the company conservatively and for the long term. We expect strong tailwinds over the medium to long term across the luxury industry and believe Richemont remains well-positioned to capitalize on the industry's growth.

BSD Analysis:
GreensKeeper maintains a bullish outlook on Richemont based on the superior durability and performance of its core jewelry brands, particularly Cartier and Van Cleef & Arpels. The manager's original investment thesis that top-tier jewelry brands would outperform the broader luxury sector is being validated through 11% quarterly growth in the jewelry segment. The fund highlights management's strategic acquisition capabilities, noting Buccellati's remarkable 5x sales growth since the 2019 acquisition and the recent addition of Vhernier at attractive valuations. The manager appreciates management's conservative, long-term approach to capital allocation and brand development. GreensKeeper expects sustained industry tailwinds in luxury goods and believes Richemont's portfolio of prestigious brands positions the company to capture disproportionate value from sector growth through brand strength and strategic acquisitions.

Pitch Summary:
Our second-best performer in the quarter was Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) +13.5%. During the quarter, Alphabet hosted its annual developer conference, highlighting its advancements in AI tools across its product suite. Google's AI Overview product continues to gain traction with over 1.5 billion monthly users, and its direct ChatGPT competitor, Gemini, is now used by more than 400 million people each month. Recent updates have reinstated the company's models to the top of the AI power rankings. Importantly for shareholders, AI Overviews have been increasing the total number of queries at Google, which the company is monetizing at a similar rate to traditional search. Google's business fundamentals remain healthy, with operating earnings growing 20 % in Q1.

BSD Analysis:
GreensKeeper expresses strong confidence in Alphabet's AI transformation and competitive positioning against rivals like ChatGPT. The manager highlights impressive user adoption metrics, with AI Overview reaching 1.5 billion monthly users and Gemini attracting 400 million users monthly, demonstrating Google's ability to scale AI products effectively. The fund views the restoration of Google's AI models to top power rankings as validation of the company's technological capabilities and R&D investments. Critically, the manager notes that AI Overviews are driving increased query volume while maintaining similar monetization rates to traditional search, suggesting successful integration without revenue cannibalization. The robust 20% operating earnings growth in Q1 reinforces the company's fundamental strength and ability to generate returns from AI investments while maintaining core search profitability.

Pitch Summary:
The top contributor to the portfolio in the second quarter was American Express (AXP) +18.6%. AXP's affluent customer base continued to spend in Q1, with revenues up 8% at constant currency, causing the stock to end the quarter just shy of its all-time high. During Q2, AXP announced upgrades to its US Consumer and Business Platinum cards, which will be released later this year. AXP continues to tailor its products to capture the spending of younger consumers, with Millennials and Gen Z now accounting for 35% of total US consumer spending. We believe these investments will strengthen the company's network effect and further lock young consumers into AXP's ecosystem as their incomes and card spending continue to rise. Additionally, AXP is widening its use cases on the commercial side of the business with recent product launches tailored towards working capital and expense management. This should expand the number of transactions that AXP can participate in and increase switching costs with commercial card users.

BSD Analysis:
GreensKeeper maintains a bullish stance on American Express, highlighting the company's successful capture of affluent consumer spending and strategic positioning with younger demographics. The manager emphasizes AXP's revenue growth of 8% at constant currency and the stock's performance near all-time highs as validation of the investment thesis. The fund views the upcoming Platinum card upgrades and focus on Millennials and Gen Z (35% of US consumer spending) as key growth drivers that will strengthen network effects and customer loyalty. The commercial expansion into working capital and expense management solutions is seen as a strategic move to increase transaction volume and create higher switching costs. The manager believes these initiatives will compound AXP's competitive advantages and drive long-term value creation through enhanced customer retention and expanded market share.

Pitch Summary:
The author argues that Ameresco is a direct beneficiary of structural grid bottlenecks, offering distributed energy solutions that can be deployed faster than traditional utility-scale generation. Its behind-the-meter generation, BESS, microgrids, and efficiency solutions directly address the constraints highlighted in the DOE report. Ameresco’s design-build-own-operate model enhances reliability and provides long-term contracted revenue. The company’s ability to deploy assets in 12–18 months aligns with fast-growing data-center loads. Overall, the pitch frames Ameresco as a strategically positioned provider whose offerings relieve grid stress and support critical infrastructure growth.

BSD Analysis:
Ameresco occupies a strong strategic niche within distributed generation and resiliency services, benefitting from grid congestion, electrification, and data-center expansion. Rapid deployment of modular assets is a differentiator relative to slow-moving transmission and utility-scale generation. Its asset-ownership model creates recurring revenue but also increases capital intensity and exposure to interest-rate shifts. BESS and microgrid capabilities provide competitive positioning in reliability-focused markets. However, execution risk, policy uncertainty, and competitive pressure from EPC firms and utilities remain key considerations. Long-term value creation depends on Ameresco’s ability to scale profitably while maintaining strong returns on capital.

Actual Post Content:
The startling DoE report released week as also a long thesis for $AMRC Ameresco is indeed a direct play on easing power‐grid constraints through its suite of distributed energy and resiliency solutions. Unlike large utilities that add central generation, Ameresco focuses on behind-the-meter and grid-edge projects that relieve local load and improve overall grid stability—exactly the kind of “modern methods” the DOE report says are needed. Key offerings include: On-site generation (natural gas CHP, biogas engines, fuel cells) • Delivers reliable, dispatchable power right at the customer’s facility—data centers, hospitals, campuses—bypassing transmission bottlenecks and shaving peak grid demand. Battery energy storage systems (BESS) • Smooths out renewables’ intermittency, provides fast-response frequency regulation, and can island critical loads during outages, directly addressing the DOE’s concern about intermittent renewables. Microgrids and resiliency platforms • Integrates generation, storage, and controls to operate autonomously if the grid goes down—or to operate in parallel to reduce peak demand on the bulk system. Energy efficiency & demand management • Implements building retrofits, smart controls, and demand-response programs to lower overall consumption and flatten load curves, reducing the need for new generation capacity. Renewables + DER integration • Engineers and builds solar, wind, and hybrid projects co-located with storage or gas turbines, creating localized “virtual power plants” that can be dispatched to relieve stressed grid segments.Because Ameresco’s model is to design, build, own, and operate these assets—often under long-term, performance-based contracts—they not only deploy capacity quickly (within 12–18 months) but also guarantee uptime and savings. That rapid deployment cycle matches the DOE’s point that “data centers can be built in 18 months, but it takes more than three times as long to add new generation required to service those data centers to the grid.” By placing generation and storage right where it’s needed, Ameresco effectively bridges that gap and eases local power constraints.

URL: https://x.com/pennycheck/status/1945187989191077960

Pitch Summary:
The author highlights Inforich as Japan’s dominant portable phone-charging network, trading at only ~10.5× FY25 guidance despite expected 50% revenue and EPS growth. Years of kiosk expansion have led to margin improvement and FCF positivity, supported by a net-cash balance sheet. Management’s long-term target of ¥15B EBITDA by 2030 implies 5× growth from 2024, though investors appear skeptical. A compensation plan tied to achieving a ¥100B valuation underscores management ambition. While risks remain, the author views the valuation as extremely attractive if execution continues.

BSD Analysis:
Inforich benefits from a physical network-effect model with location-driven defensibility, but long-term demand depends on consumer charging behavior and technology trends. The company’s aggressive growth targets imply significant operational scaling and sustained utilization. Management’s incentive structure could drive value or encourage overly optimistic expansion. Competitive and pricing pressures remain plausible as portable charging becomes commoditized. The net-cash balance sheet provides flexibility, but returns on new capital must remain high to justify valuation upside. Overall, the thesis is a high-growth, execution-sensitive opportunity built on footprint dominance.

Actual Post Content:
Inforich ($9338.T) is an interesting stock I’ve never seen discussed on here. Leading provider of mobile phone charging services in Japan, with 10x scale of nearest competitor. Shares are down 40% YTD and now trade at around 10.5x FY25 guidance while the company is in hyper growth mode. expected to post around 50% revenue and EPS growth in FY25. After years of building out their portable battery rental kiosks in Japanese convenience stores, train stations etc, margins have improved and the company hit FCF positive in 2023. Net-cash balance sheet. Clearly the market is very skeptical of Inforich’s aggressive growth targets, aiming for Y15bn of EBITDA by 2030, roughly 5x the 2024 level. Management is highly incentivized, with a performance-based comp plan tied to reaching Y100bn market cap (over 3x). Lots of risks with this one, but it is stupid cheap if company is able to keep executing on its ambitious growth plan.

URL: https://x.com/RocksOver/status/1945305229916037461

Pitch Summary:
Borr Drilling is our mid-cap, Norwegian listed owner of shallow water drilling rigs and is one of three special situations investments for Highwood. I reviewed the thesis on this investment and shared the outcome from that in my last letter to you. Since then, the shares are down a further 50% to $1.80 each. This is the result of a weakening market for day rates on shallow water jack up rigs. I continue to believe this will reverse, but the timing of a reversal is difficult to anticipate. In the meantime, management and the board (who I rate highly and are well aligned with us) are doing the right things to maintain balance sheet flexibility. Through the equity market, we own these assets at a now larger discount to their value and any realistic assessment of the through cycle cash flow they are likely to generate. Value is in plain sight, but it is up to our collective patience and behavioural discipline to capture the substantial upside on offer.

BSD Analysis:
Borr Drilling operates one of the youngest and most modern fleets of jack-up rigs in the offshore shallow-water drilling market, giving it a structural advantage in a niche where supply remains constrained and high-spec rigs are limited. The company’s 2024 financial results showed a strong operational rebound, with over $1 billion in revenue and more than $500 million in adjusted EBITDA, reflecting improving utilization and higher day rates. Despite this progress, the stock trades at a deep discount to both fleet value and its through-cycle cash-flow potential, largely due to uncertainty around the timing of a broader recovery in shallow-water drilling markets. Management has taken shareholder-friendly steps to simplify the corporate structure, including delisting from Oslo and consolidating on the NYSE to improve liquidity and visibility. Borr’s young fleet helps reduce maintenance capital needs relative to peers and positions it well for margin expansion when drilling demand strengthens. The company’s global contract footprint across the U.S., Middle East, Africa, Latin America, and Asia adds diversification and optionality as oil demand normalizes. However, results remain highly sensitive to oil prices, offshore investment cycles, and global macroeconomic volatility. If rig reactivations continue and day rates firm, Borr could demonstrate significant operating leverage and unlock meaningful value. The current valuation provides asymmetric upside potential for long-term investors willing to tolerate sector cyclicality. Overall, Borr Drilling remains a high-risk, high-reward special situation with substantial upside should the offshore cycle turn favorably.

Pitch Summary:
HelloFresh is our Frankfurt listed global market leader in meal kits and ready to eat meals delivered to your door. The basic thesis on this investment was included in my last letter to you. The shares were volatile over the past 6 months, trading as high as €13.50 and as low as €7.28 as the equity market tries to digest the pivot in management’s strategy from market share at all costs to a focus on profitability and cash generation. We are still too early to draw any strong conclusions on the success of this strategy as it takes time to cut overheads, streamline the marketing function and negotiate better terms with key vendors. Nonetheless, my read of the incremental data points is positive. The company is reducing discounts; gross margins are improving as is cash generation. Management target c.€250mn of free cashflow by 2026 which if capitalised at 10x is more than the entire enterprise value for the shares today. On this basis, I continue to believe in the valuation support offered by the shares.

BSD Analysis:
HelloFresh AG remains one of the largest and most vertically integrated players in the global meal-kit and ready-to-eat food delivery market, benefiting from strong brand recognition and a highly optimized supply chain. While the industry has matured from its early hyper-growth phase, HelloFresh maintains a scale advantage that supports superior unit economics relative to smaller competitors. Management’s strategic pivot from maximizing market share to prioritizing profitability marks an important inflection point for the business. Recent data points suggest this shift is gaining traction, with improving gross margins, lower discount intensity, and early signs of cost discipline across marketing and operations. The company continues to target meaningful free cash flow generation by 2026, supported by operational efficiencies and a more rational promotional environment. Despite this progress, the shares remain volatile as investors recalibrate expectations following a multi-year period of declining growth and inconsistent margins. The company’s valuation embeds skepticism about the sustainability of its margin expansion, creating a potentially attractive entry point if execution continues to improve. HelloFresh retains a diversified geographic footprint, with the US market representing a substantial long-term profit driver due to its scale and penetration runway. The company’s ready-to-eat segment, including Factor_, continues to outperform and offers structurally higher margins than traditional meal kits. Overall, HelloFresh offers a compelling setup: a stressed valuation, improving fundamentals, and significant operating leverage if management delivers on its free-cash-flow ambitions.

Pitch Summary:
Bolloré and Compagnie de l’Odet are the Paris listed mid-cap holding companies controlled by Vincent Bolloré and family. We acquired our shares in H1 2024, and the thesis (available here) is based on steady compounding of the underlying assets (UMG & Vivendi), value creative uses of the large cash balance and a simplification of the complex family holding structure over our investment horizon.

In my last letter to you, I noted that Bolloré was making big strides in the process of simplification of its complex corporate structure which I believe is an important value driver. Unfortunately, this progress was dealt a set back of sorts in H1. Bolloré’s buyout offers and mandatory squeeze outs for the remaining shares outstanding in three subsidiaries was blocked by the AMF (The French Financial Markets Authority). These buyouts would have simplified the structure on accretive terms for our position.

The AMF ruled that the terms of the offer did not give minority shareholders in these entities fair value. The positive from this development is that the AMF’s decision included an estimate of the fair value for these securities, which in broad terms validates our estimate of the fair value of Bolloré and Compagnie de l’Odet themselves. Hence, the AMF decision is both a positive for that reason, and the clear signal that they intend to protect the interests of minority shareholders, and a negative, as it slows the process of simplification. As you know, we are minority shareholders of Bolloré and C. de l’Odet, and therefore having the regulator on our side is worthwhile. In my view, the AMF development does not end the cause, and it may force a more holistic solution.

Meanwhile, the core assets of Bolloré continue to compound away. Chief among them is our holding in UMG, which reported revenue and profit growth of 10% in Q1. Subscription revenue growth is expected to continue at double digit rates for the next few years. Bolloré’s cash position of c.€6bn is compounding at a lower rate as our position has significant optionality.
Once again, patience is required — no one is going to get rich quick scheme — but when it comes to safety of capital and upside potential, I continue to believe our holding in Bolloré and Compagnie de l’Odet is an attractive risk-reward for a portion of our capital.

BSD Analysis:
Bolloré SE is a diversified French holding company whose value today is driven primarily by its significant stakes in Universal Music Group (UMG) and Vivendi, two businesses with long-duration cash-flow characteristics and strong competitive moats. The company has a long history of disciplined capital allocation under the Bolloré family, which has compounded value through strategic acquisitions, restructuring, and selective divestitures. UMG continues to benefit from secular growth in global music streaming, providing Bolloré with exposure to a structurally expanding industry with attractive margins and recurring revenue. Vivendi adds further diversification through media, advertising, and entertainment assets, though its business mix has historically been more cyclical. Bolloré has also accumulated a sizeable cash position following the sale of its Africa logistics business, giving the group meaningful financial flexibility for buybacks or corporate simplification. Public disclosures indicate the family has been steadily streamlining the holding structure, which investors view as a potential catalyst for unlocking the “conglomerate discount” embedded in the shares. Despite its strong underlying assets, Bolloré trades at a notable discount to the sum of its parts, reflecting both governance opacity and the market’s skepticism about the timing of further restructuring. Regulatory pushback in France on certain squeeze-out transactions has slowed the pace of simplification, but the regulator’s fair-value assessments broadly support the intrinsic valuation of the listed entities. The group’s conservative balance sheet, stable cash flows from UMG, and optionality embedded in its cash holdings create an attractive risk-reward profile for patient investors. Overall, Bolloré remains a compelling special situation where long-term value realization is tied to corporate actions, asset monetization, and continued operational strength at UMG and Vivendi.

Pitch Summary:
Burford Capital is our UK listed global market leader in litigation finance. The company makes money by funding select commercial litigation claims in exchange for a share of the settlement or court awarded judgement and by generating fees on third party capital.

The relevant developments at Burford are coming thick and fast. Regarding the Petersen & Eton Park vs Argentina and YPF matter, Judge Preska ruled on June 30th that Argentina must ‘turn over’ its 51% ownership stake in YPF to the former shareholders of this company (and therefore Burford) as partial compensation for nationalising the company in 2012. Otherwise, they face contempt of court. This stake is currently valued on the Argentinian stock exchange at $6bn, or about 1/3rd of the value that was nationalized at the time. Argentina is in an increasingly challenging position appeal after appeal and delay tactic after delay tactic. Practically, they are unlikely to comply with this ruling on Preska’s timeline but it adds additional pressure on Argentina to settle the $17bn claim outstanding against the country. For example, debate about the ownership of the state oil company and its future are unhelpful in its efforts to develop the giant Vaca Muerte field, which requires substantial foreign investment.

Meanwhile, Argentina’s ability to pay this settlement is improving. Moody’s has upgraded the sovereign credit rating, the country is balancing its books and most importantly, they agreed a $20bn funding deal from the IMF. As a reminder, Burford’s share of this claim alone is $6.8bn or $31/share pre-tax and accrues interest at a rate of $1.64 per Burford share annually. Burford’s share price at quarter end was $14.26.

The core business ex YPF continues to deliver solid returns on capital and free cash flow. The value this business creates for shareholders is a function of the amount of capital it can deploy and the rate of return on this capital less all costs. Over the past four quarters, Burford has deployed $463m into new claims, growth of c.23% year over year and seen realizations of claims of $742mn, growth of 40% year over year. Returns on capital for these realisations have been stable at c.98% or a 2x return on every dollar deployed. Burford is a difficult business to forecast because results are lumpy depending on the progression of legal matters through the courts. This makes it challenging for traditional public equity investors to value the business correctly and is a big reason why the core business remains undervalued at 8.5x earnings excluding any value for YPF. We have conviction that the cash flows from the core business ex YPF underpins the value of the shares. That cash flow is growing at healthy rates over time, as indicated by the growth in deployments and realisations. On top of this, we own a valuable option on the YPF litigation, which is a potential game changer for the company.

BSD Analysis:
Burford is the global leader in litigation finance, an asset class with asymmetric payouts and long, uneven cash cycles. The company’s scale and legal expertise give it a competitive edge in sourcing and underwriting high-value cases. Its landmark wins, including the YPF case, highlight the embedded optionality within the portfolio. Revenue recognition can be lumpy, but underlying IRRs remain strong across vintages. Burford’s balance sheet and fund-management business provide leverage to future growth. Regulatory risk exists, but industry institutionalization continues to work in Burford’s favor. This is a unique alternative asset manager with genuine embedded upside.

Pitch Summary:
JZ Capital is our small cap, UK listed closed-end private equity fund in liquidation. Management continue to make progress toward liquidation of the remaining assets in the fund and returning that capital to us. In addition to the 13% dividend received in July 2024, we received a further 10% dividend in March 2025. Each dividend received so far has been at NAV, which is c.1.5x the current share price. I see no reason why this will not continue until the fund has been liquidated, which implies a solid, low-risk return.

BSD Analysis:
JZ Capital is a closed-end investment trust undergoing a long, messy wind-down after years of poor performance and problematic real-estate exposure. The portfolio today is essentially an illiquid collection of legacy assets being sold off for cash over time. The investment case hinges entirely on discount-to-NAV narrowing as realizations occur. Governance concerns and limited transparency have historically weighed heavily on the stock. Upside exists if asset sales are cleaner and faster than expected, but execution risk is substantial. This is a deep special-situations play, not a compounding vehicle. Patience and realism are mandatory.

Pitch Summary:
Motorpoint is our UK listed small cap and the lowest cost operator in the fragmented used car market in the UK. We acquired our shares in Motorpoint when the used car market was in a state of disarray, the result of pandemic driven shut-downs in new car production, chip shortages for OEMs and broken supply chains. At that time, Motorpoint’s longer-term earnings power was undervalued by public markets. My thesis has been that the industry will get back into balance and when that happens, Motorpoint will earn materially more free cash flow than was discounted by the then weak share price. Motorpoint’s business is recovering nicely driven by normalising volumes in their target market, which is pulling the share price along with it. The company reported FY results in June, which showed market share gains, volume growth of 14%, improving profitability and strong cash generation, which is partly being deployed into opening new dealerships. I believe we are still in the early innings of Motorpoint’s improving corporate performance.

BSD Analysis:
Motorpoint is a UK nearly-new car retailer positioned between traditional dealers and online disruptors, offering good value and rapid inventory turnover. Its model benefits from consumers trading down into nearly-new vehicles when budgets are pressured. Execution has been choppier recently due to used-car price volatility, but Motorpoint’s asset-light model allows it to adjust inventory quickly. Digital penetration is growing, helping improve conversion and reduce reliance on physical branches. Competition from online players exists, but profitability remains elusive for most of them. If pricing normalizes and consumer confidence stabilizes, Motorpoint’s operating leverage can turn quickly positive. This is a cyclical but well-run operator with upside in recovery.

Pitch Summary:
Fever-Tree is our founder-led UK listed mid-cap beverages company which dominates the premium mixer category globally. As I mentioned in my last letter to you, my thesis on this investment is that the margin pressure the business experienced in the past 4 yrs was something management is on a path to resolve and if successful, we would own this high quality business at a single digit multiple of earnings. Further, Fever-Tree is a valuable M&A target for larger beverages companies if current management struggle to improve margins to historic levels.
On cue, Molson Coors came knocking on Fever-Tree’s door and the two entered into a strategic partnership for the US market, which is c.35% of Fever-Tree revenue. As part of this deal, Molson Coors took an 8.5% stake in the company, acquired the assets of the US subsidiary and will manage the US business in a 50/50 JV with Fever-Tree. Molson Coors will bottle the product in the USA and distribute it down its own network. These are the merger synergies mentioned in the initial thesis. The partnership will largely eliminate Fever-Tree’s transatlantic shipping costs, cut the cost of glass and manufacturing and give the brand access to a distribution network that is more than 5x the size of what it had previously. Molson Coors’ entire corporate strategy is titled ‘beyond beer’, which refers to their ambition to diversify the business outside of the core beer category – such as into premium branded mixers. Management will be looking to make a success of the Fever-Tree partnership to validate their wider corporate objectives. I am optimistic about how this will benefit us as Fever-Tree shareholders.

BSD Analysis:
Fever-Tree reinvented the premium mixer category and still owns the brand equity in tonic and cocktail pairings globally. Growth has slowed from its hyper-scale phase, but the premium mixer trend remains intact, especially in the U.S. and Europe. Input cost inflation hurt margins, but easing logistics and commodity pressures set up a margin rebuild story. The brand remains aspirational and is expanding into cocktail mixers and ready-to-drink formats. Competition has risen, yet Fever-Tree continues to command shelf space and pricing power. The business carries little capex burden and converts growth into cash efficiently. The stock oscillates with sentiment, but the brand’s staying power is real.

Pitch Summary:
Protector is our mid-cap, Norwegian P&C insurer with a strong corporate culture and a cost advantage in underwriting which feeds a large and growing float... Protector's profitable growth continues. Year to date, Protector has grown premiums 16% at an 85% combined ratio for insurance profits of 515mn NOK, more than double last year's result... Assets under management has grown 21% year over year and the investment result more than doubled again to 1.2bn NOK. Year to date, earnings per share is up 106% to 18 NOK per share. The strong profits result in a higher capacity for dividends and a strong balance sheet... The outlook from the current share price remains attractive and we continue to have a sizable position in this outstanding business.

BSD Analysis:
Protector is a fast-growing Nordic insurer with an underwriting-first culture and a long track record of outperformance in commercial and public-sector insurance. Its focus on disciplined selection and lean cost structure gives it a combined ratio advantage versus peers. Growth has been rapid, especially in the UK, where the company has taken meaningful share. Results can be volatile due to large claims and reserve swings, but management has historically handled this with unusual transparency and rigor. Investment income adds cyclical tailwinds in higher-rate environments. The market often underestimates Protector because it doesn’t chase diversification for its own sake. This is a high-ROE insurer built on execution rather than marketing.