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Pitch Summary:
Upslope has owned FTI Consulting (leader in restructuring and dispute advisory) and Evercore (top independent M&A advisor) in the past. The Fund recently re-initiated positions in each of these companies. While they are bets on polar opposite outcomes (Evercore is very pro-cyclical, while FTI is the most counter-cyclical publicly traded company I follow), expectations for each appear modest. This was and remains especially true of ...
Pitch Summary:
Upslope has owned FTI Consulting (leader in restructuring and dispute advisory) and Evercore (top independent M&A advisor) in the past. The Fund recently re-initiated positions in each of these companies. While they are bets on polar opposite outcomes (Evercore is very pro-cyclical, while FTI is the most counter-cyclical publicly traded company I follow), expectations for each appear modest. This was and remains especially true of FTI although it's more understandable as the company is going through some turmoil (employee turnover/retention challenges) in one of its non-core segments. Nonetheless, the unique macro environment - on/off trade war, the very pro-cyclical "One Big Beautiful Bill," lingering inflation, massive regulatory and technological (e.g. Al) uncertainty and change - should ultimately provide significant opportunities for both businesses ahead.
BSD Analysis:
FTI Consulting is an undisputed, high-margin, specialized business advisory firm whose stock is a conviction bet on the structural complexity and volatility of the global economy. The core thesis is driven by its indispensable role in corporate finance/restructuring, economic consulting, forensic and litigation consulting, and strategic communications. The company's services are non-discretionary and demand spikes during major market dislocations, regulatory changes, and economic downturns, providing a crucial hedge against cyclicality. FTI's competitive advantage is its deep bench of 7,700+ highly specialized staff, who command premium billing rates for their expertise, making it the largest provider of bankruptcy, turnaround, and business restructuring services in the U.S..
Pitch Summary:
Smiths is a UK-based industrial conglomerate operating four segments: John Crane (specialty seals/flow control solutions for energy/power and industrials, ~48% of op profit), Flex-Tek (HVAC and industrial specialty tubing, 24%), Smiths Detection (inspection/screening systems for airport and border security, 15%), and Smiths Interconnect (specialty connectors and electronics, 13%). Historically, Smiths has been perceived by markets ...
Pitch Summary:
Smiths is a UK-based industrial conglomerate operating four segments: John Crane (specialty seals/flow control solutions for energy/power and industrials, ~48% of op profit), Flex-Tek (HVAC and industrial specialty tubing, 24%), Smiths Detection (inspection/screening systems for airport and border security, 15%), and Smiths Interconnect (specialty connectors and electronics, 13%). Historically, Smiths has been perceived by markets as a sleepy, overly diversified conglomerate. Pressured by activist investors (including Elliott, according to the FT) management has committed to drastically simplifying its business by exiting the Interconnect and Detection units (the former to be announced by year-end, the latter next year). Key elements of Upslope's investment thesis include: Attractive core businesses (John Crane + Flex-Tek) that benefit from the "low cost, high importance" nature of their products and strong competitive positions. Although each unit serves reasonably cyclical end markets, they both have a very high (70%+ in the case of John Crane) portion of sales coming from recurring maintenance/aftermarket business. These positive attributes contribute to consistent delivery of mid-20s ROCE and steady mid-single digit organic revenue growth. Significant catalysts likely on the horizon with active portfolio reshaping. "Future Smiths" will be a far more nimble, focused business, retaining the company's most competitively advantaged units. Strong capital return program In recent years, Smiths has maintained an active and reasonably aggressive buyback program. From July 2021 (FYE) to Jan 2025 average shares outstanding declined by almost 15%. In January, Smiths added another £350mm (5% of current market cap) to its buyback authorization. Reasonable valuation and strong balance sheet despite near-term catalysts for unlocking value and a stronger-than-usual balance sheet (<0.5x net vs. ~1-2x historically), Smiths trades in-line with its average historical valuation multiples (11x NTM EBITDA, 17x P/E).
BSD Analysis:
Smiths Group is a high-quality, focused industrial technology leader whose premium valuation is justified by its defensive, non-cyclical product portfolio and aggressive operational excellence. The core thesis is driven by its successful pivot to four specialized, high-margin divisions: John Crane (engineered sealing solutions), Smiths Detection (threat detection), Smiths Interconnect, and Flex-Tek. The company's products are mission-critical and non-discretionary (security sensors, rotating products, fluid management components), leading to high switching costs and stable aftermarket revenue. The stock is a high-quality industrial compounder leveraging its essential technology to deliver predictable earnings and aggressive capital returns.
Pitch Summary:
Clearwater Analytics Holdings Inc. provides software-as-a-service solutions for automated investment data aggregation, reconciliation, accounting, and reporting. The company delivered strong results, including revenue growth. They recently acquired Enfusion, Beacon, and Bistro assets that serve to broaden the product offering. The integration of these assets is the company’s focus in support of their vision of a front-to-back asset...
Pitch Summary:
Clearwater Analytics Holdings Inc. provides software-as-a-service solutions for automated investment data aggregation, reconciliation, accounting, and reporting. The company delivered strong results, including revenue growth. They recently acquired Enfusion, Beacon, and Bistro assets that serve to broaden the product offering. The integration of these assets is the company’s focus in support of their vision of a front-to-back asset management platform. In the near term, there will be a dilutive impact on Clearwater’s financial profile and that caused its shares to drop by -18%.
BSD Analysis:
Clearwater Analytics is a high-growth, cloud-native financial technology pure-play whose stock is a conviction bet on its dominance in investment accounting and reporting. The core moat is its single-instance, multi-tenant SaaS platform, which provides a crucial, unified view of investment data for insurers, asset managers, and corporations. The company is aggressively expanding its market share, driven by strong adoption of its high-margin Clearwater Prism offering. Clearwater is demonstrating superior financial performance, with ARR hitting $450 million and Adjusted EBITDA expanding 29%. The stock is a high-quality compounder leveraging its superior technology to dominate the non-discretionary financial reporting market.
Pitch Summary:
Kratos Defense & Security Solutions Inc. supplies technology products, systems, and software for defense, national security, and commercial markets. Their fiscal second quarter exceeded expectations for earnings and profit margins. While investors were initially cautious on the potential impact of DOGE on the defense budget, we are now seeing augmented defense spending with a major shift towards next-generation priorities such as h...
Pitch Summary:
Kratos Defense & Security Solutions Inc. supplies technology products, systems, and software for defense, national security, and commercial markets. Their fiscal second quarter exceeded expectations for earnings and profit margins. While investors were initially cautious on the potential impact of DOGE on the defense budget, we are now seeing augmented defense spending with a major shift towards next-generation priorities such as hypersonic, missile defense, UAVs, and space. As such, Kratos is well placed. We trimmed Kratos on the strength of its 62% ascent.
BSD Analysis:
Kratos is a high-growth, specialized defense technology pure-play whose stock is a conviction bet on the structural shift to affordable, unmanned military systems. The core moat is its leadership in providing attritable drones (XQ−58A Valkyrie) and high-performance training aircraft, which are non-discretionary for modernizing global air forces. The U.S. military's commitment to low-cost, autonomous drone wingmen is the key catalyst. Kratos is demonstrating strong financial velocity, with Adjusted EBITDA projected to grow 22% year-over-year. The stock is a leveraged play on the long-term, accelerating defense procurement cycle.
Pitch Summary:
Krystal Biotech Inc. is a biotechnology company developing and commercializing genetic medicines for patients with rare diseases. First quarter results missed the mark with declining levels of new patient starts and sales. While the quarterly results are disappointing, Vyjuvek is viewed as a durable and high-margin business. That therapy is a topical gel that promotes wound healing for patients with a rare and serious skin disorder...
Pitch Summary:
Krystal Biotech Inc. is a biotechnology company developing and commercializing genetic medicines for patients with rare diseases. First quarter results missed the mark with declining levels of new patient starts and sales. While the quarterly results are disappointing, Vyjuvek is viewed as a durable and high-margin business. That therapy is a topical gel that promotes wound healing for patients with a rare and serious skin disorder called dystrophic epidermolysis. Krystal Biotech currently has seventeen sales reps and plans to add eight more. We reduced the position, which declined by -24% during the quarter.
BSD Analysis:
Krystal Biotech is a high-growth, specialized gene therapy pure-play whose stock is a conviction bet on the successful commercialization of Vyjuvek. The core thesis is driven by Vyjuvek's FDA approval for the treatment of Dystrophic Epidermolysis Bullosa (DEB), a severe genetic skin disease. This is a massive, high-value opportunity in a rare disease market, creating a near-monopoly. The company is rapidly scaling its commercial engine, with Q3 2025 Vyjuvek net product revenue hitting $100 million. The stock is a leveraged play on the successful launch execution and the advancement of its RED−D platform for generating new gene therapy candidates.
Pitch Summary:
Jumping back to the positive was JFrog Ltd., which provides systems to manage and speed up the release of software updates from developers to users. We added to our position on near-term lows at the start of the quarter. Later, its reported revenues and earnings surpassed expectations, and JFrog’s management lifted its prior guidance for 2025. In addition to a stable level of new business wins, there were levels of customer usage b...
Pitch Summary:
Jumping back to the positive was JFrog Ltd., which provides systems to manage and speed up the release of software updates from developers to users. We added to our position on near-term lows at the start of the quarter. Later, its reported revenues and earnings surpassed expectations, and JFrog’s management lifted its prior guidance for 2025. In addition to a stable level of new business wins, there were levels of customer usage beyond their contractual commitments that also boosted revenues. That lifted its shares up by 37% and we trimmed the position.
BSD Analysis:
JFrog is a high-growth, essential DevOps software pure-play whose stock is a conviction bet on the non-discretionary corporate need for secure, fast, and continuous software development. The core moat is its Liquid Software vision, enabling enterprises to manage the entire software delivery lifecycle, from code to production. The company's Artifactory and Xray products are indispensable components in the DevSecOps toolchain, giving it high switching costs. JFrog is successfully transitioning customers to its Universal Platform and expanding its ARR base. The stock is a conviction bet on the accelerating structural growth of cloud-native development.
Pitch Summary:
Among our holdings, we trimmed CrowdStrike Holdings as it gained 44%. A cloud-based endpoint security provider that secures a range of devices, endpoints, and cloud environments, CrowdStrike benefited early in the quarter as cybersecurity was one of the most resilient areas in an uncertain macroeconomic environment. In June, its results were higher than anticipated, especially with gains in net new annual recurring revenues, which ...
Pitch Summary:
Among our holdings, we trimmed CrowdStrike Holdings as it gained 44%. A cloud-based endpoint security provider that secures a range of devices, endpoints, and cloud environments, CrowdStrike benefited early in the quarter as cybersecurity was one of the most resilient areas in an uncertain macroeconomic environment. In June, its results were higher than anticipated, especially with gains in net new annual recurring revenues, which are also expected to double in the next fiscal year. There were some lingering impacts from last year's outage, but with the resulting customer retention rebates about to expire, we expect CrowdStrike’s revenues will continue reaccelerating.
BSD Analysis:
CrowdStrike is the undisputed, high-growth leader in cloud-native endpoint security whose stock is a conviction bet on its modular platform dominance. The core moat is its Falcon platform, which operates a singular, lightweight agent using a massive security graph in the cloud to detect and prevent threats. The company is aggressively monetizing its platform by cross-selling modules, evidenced by a 7.5 module adoption rate in its top-tier subscription bundles. This strategy is generating superior financial results, with ARR growing 33% to $3.78 billion. CrowdStrike is an indispensable, high-quality giant whose platform strategy is securing its long-term dominance in the non-discretionary cybersecurity market.
Pitch Summary:
Rounding out our top 3 for the quarter was Compagnie Financière Richemont SA (CFR:SWX) +8.5%. The company’s core Jewellery Maisons (Cartier and Van Cleef & Arpels) continue to prove more durable than nearly any other luxury jewelry brand. Our original thesis—that the top branded jewelry brands would outperform the luxury sector over time—is largely playing out with Richemont’s jewelry segment growing 11% in the most recent quarter....
Pitch Summary:
Rounding out our top 3 for the quarter was Compagnie Financière Richemont SA (CFR:SWX) +8.5%. The company’s core Jewellery Maisons (Cartier and Van Cleef & Arpels) continue to prove more durable than nearly any other luxury jewelry brand. Our original thesis—that the top branded jewelry brands would outperform the luxury sector over time—is largely playing out with Richemont’s jewelry segment growing 11% in the most recent quarter. Richemont may have a few more tricks up its sleeve. Since acquiring Italian jeweller Buccellati in 2019, sales have increased almost 5x following a strong 2025. Additionally, Richemont recently expanded its portfolio with the acquisition of another Italian jeweller, Vhernier, in June. Both brands were acquired for relatively low dollar amounts, and management continues to manage the company conservatively and for the long term. We expect strong tailwinds over the medium to long term across the luxury industry and believe Richemont remains well-positioned to capitalize on the industry’s growth.
BSD Analysis:
Richemont’s dominant position in branded jewelry provides superior pricing power, resilience in downturns, and structural growth, as evidenced by double-digit segment expansion. The Buccellati and Vhernier acquisitions strengthen its high-end portfolio at attractive valuations, adding long-term optionality and enhancing margin mix. Management’s conservative capital allocation and brand stewardship ensure disciplined growth without overextending the balance sheet. As the luxury sector increasingly polarizes toward top-tier brands, Richemont’s maisons are primed to capture disproportionate share. The stock remains compelling given its durable competitive moat, diversified global demand, and multiyear catalysts through portfolio expansion and secular luxury growth.
Pitch Summary:
Our second-best performer in the quarter was Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) +13.5%. During the quarter, Alphabet hosted its annual developer conference, highlighting its advancements in AI tools across its product suite. Google’s AI Overview product continues to gain traction with over 1.5 billion monthly users, and its direct ChatGPT competitor, Gemini, is now used by more than 400 million people each month. Recent updates have reinstated ...
Pitch Summary:
Our second-best performer in the quarter was Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) +13.5%. During the quarter, Alphabet hosted its annual developer conference, highlighting its advancements in AI tools across its product suite. Google’s AI Overview product continues to gain traction with over 1.5 billion monthly users, and its direct ChatGPT competitor, Gemini, is now used by more than 400 million people each month. Recent updates have reinstated the company’s models to the top of the AI power rankings. Importantly for shareholders, AI Overviews have been increasing the total number of queries at Google, which the company is monetizing at a similar rate to traditional search. Google’s business fundamentals remain healthy, with operating earnings growing 20% in Q1.
BSD Analysis:
Alphabet is executing a major AI transition from a position of strength, with massive user scale, top-tier model performance, and strong early monetization indicators via AI-enhanced search. Query growth driven by AI Overviews signals incremental engagement, boosting long-term ad inventory and monetization capacity. Gemini’s fast adoption reinforces Alphabet’s competitive moat across consumer and enterprise AI applications. With operating income growing 20% and Cloud accelerating, Alphabet remains fundamentally strong while still trading at a reasonable multiple relative to its durable growth prospects. Continued gains in AI relevance, monetization efficiency, and infrastructure leadership position the company for sustained long-term compounding.
Pitch Summary:
The top contributor to the portfolio in the second quarter was American Express (AXP) +18.6%. AXP’s affluent customer base continued to spend in Q1, with revenues up 8% at constant currency, causing the stock to end the quarter just shy of its all-time high. During Q2, AXP announced upgrades to its US Consumer and Business Platinum cards, which will be released later this year. AXP continues to tailor its products to capture the sp...
Pitch Summary:
The top contributor to the portfolio in the second quarter was American Express (AXP) +18.6%. AXP’s affluent customer base continued to spend in Q1, with revenues up 8% at constant currency, causing the stock to end the quarter just shy of its all-time high. During Q2, AXP announced upgrades to its US Consumer and Business Platinum cards, which will be released later this year. AXP continues to tailor its products to capture the spending of younger consumers, with Millennials and Gen Z now accounting for 35% of total US consumer spending. We believe these investments will strengthen the company’s network effect and further lock young consumers into AXP’s ecosystem as their incomes and card spending continue to rise. Additionally, AXP is widening its use cases on the commercial side of the business with recent product launches tailored towards working capital and expense management. This should expand the number of transactions that AXP can participate in and increase switching costs with commercial card users.
BSD Analysis:
AXP continues to demonstrate strong brand power, premium customer positioning, and a widening network advantage as younger cohorts increasingly adopt the platform. Revenue growth in the high single digits highlights healthy spending trends and durability in its affluent client base, supporting further operating leverage. The company’s strategy of enhancing premium card rewards and expanding commercial-use cases should deepen engagement and boost lifetime customer value. With consistent mid-teens ROE, disciplined expense control, and a resilient credit profile, AXP trades at a valuation that still underappreciates its long runway for compounding. The fund’s view that ecosystem reinforcement and higher switching costs will continue to drive durable growth remains well supported.
Pitch Summary:
Edenred is the largest employee benefits provider globally, connecting over 60 million users, one million corporate clients, and two million partner merchants across 45 countries. Its meal voucher ecosystem benefits from strong network effects and decades-long market concentration. While regulatory scrutiny has intensified in Italy, France, and Brazil, the financial impact to date has been modest. The company’s valuation has compre...
Pitch Summary:
Edenred is the largest employee benefits provider globally, connecting over 60 million users, one million corporate clients, and two million partner merchants across 45 countries. Its meal voucher ecosystem benefits from strong network effects and decades-long market concentration. While regulatory scrutiny has intensified in Italy, France, and Brazil, the financial impact to date has been modest. The company’s valuation has compressed materially, from ~30x forward PE to ~10x, despite continued ~10% organic growth and resilient earnings. Management believes today’s lower valuation and greater clarity around regulatory outcomes set up a favourable asymmetry for future returns. :contentReference[oaicite:5]{index=5}
BSD Analysis:
Eedenred is evolving from a meal-voucher issuer into a full-stack workplace payments platform with real pricing power. Digitalization has turbocharged its economics, shifting the business from paper logistics to high-margin software and fintech rails. The company benefits from regulatory frameworks that essentially force adoption of its products in multiple markets, creating natural moat effects. Cross-selling between benefits, mobility, and corporate payments is still in early innings, giving Edenred a long runway for wallet-share expansion. The recurring nature of its contracts makes revenue durable even during economic soft patches. While the stock occasionally trades like a utility, the underlying growth profile looks more like a fintech compounder. Investors underestimate how much operating leverage Edenred can still unlock.
Pitch Summary:
Dollarama was the largest contributor to the Fund’s FY25 performance. The company operates the largest dollar store chain in Canada with over 1,500 stores – six times more locations than its nearest competitor. It sells general merchandise, consumables, and seasonal items up to $5. Dollarama appeals to a broad demographic, using multiple price points to maintain affordability while attracting higher-income shoppers. FY25 represente...
Pitch Summary:
Dollarama was the largest contributor to the Fund’s FY25 performance. The company operates the largest dollar store chain in Canada with over 1,500 stores – six times more locations than its nearest competitor. It sells general merchandise, consumables, and seasonal items up to $5. Dollarama appeals to a broad demographic, using multiple price points to maintain affordability while attracting higher-income shoppers. FY25 represented another period of relentless execution, with same-store sales growing ahead of expectations, international expansion plans progressing, and sentiment improving. :contentReference[oaicite:4]{index=4}
BSD Analysis:
Dollarama’s defensive traffic trends, exceptional cost controls, and industry-leading margins (>25%) support consistent double-digit earnings growth. Expansion into Latin America and Australia extends its unit growth runway. Despite a richer multiple, sustained share gains, strong cash generation, and disciplined capital allocation justify a premium valuation.
Pitch Summary:
Icon, a top-tier global clinical research organisation (CRO), saw a 25% reduction in consensus 2027 EPS estimates during the year, and a more than 50% decline in its stock price. In our view, its currently depressed valuation reflects one of two market narratives: either investors believe the reduction in R&D spending by pharma companies in recent years is permanent, thereby limiting Icon’s future growth potential, or more likely, ...
Pitch Summary:
Icon, a top-tier global clinical research organisation (CRO), saw a 25% reduction in consensus 2027 EPS estimates during the year, and a more than 50% decline in its stock price. In our view, its currently depressed valuation reflects one of two market narratives: either investors believe the reduction in R&D spending by pharma companies in recent years is permanent, thereby limiting Icon’s future growth potential, or more likely, the market sees no immediate growth catalysts and views the stock as ‘dead money’ in the near term. With the stock trading at a 10% free cash flow yield, we consider the downside risk limited and are content to be patient. :contentReference[oaicite:3]{index=3}
BSD Analysis:
Icon’s valuation reset embeds pessimistic assumptions on pharma R&D cycles despite its entrenched competitive positioning and long-term outsourcing tailwinds. With CRO peers trading at materially higher EV/EBITDA multiples, mean reversion offers upside as funding conditions normalize. The company generates strong cash conversion, enabling deleveraging and buybacks. Contract wins and biotech funding recovery serve as forward catalysts.
Pitch Summary:
Visional is the leading anonymous professional job matching service in Japan. It operates a reverse-search model, where professionals create searchable profiles while maintaining privacy until they choose to engage with potential employers or headhunters. Visional has a leading share in a secularly growing market. Traditionally, Japanese professionals have remained employed by the same company for the long-term, with far less mid-c...
Pitch Summary:
Visional is the leading anonymous professional job matching service in Japan. It operates a reverse-search model, where professionals create searchable profiles while maintaining privacy until they choose to engage with potential employers or headhunters. Visional has a leading share in a secularly growing market. Traditionally, Japanese professionals have remained employed by the same company for the long-term, with far less mid-career mobility than in other developed markets. This is now changing as Japan’s declining population creates labour shortages and accelerating corporate transformation demands more dynamic workforce management, driving more frequent job changes and higher wages. :contentReference[oaicite:2]{index=2}
BSD Analysis:
Visional benefits from powerful marketplace network effects and structural labor shifts in Japan. With secular tailwinds pushing mid-career mobility, Visional can sustain >15% revenue growth with expanding margins. Its high-ROE, asset-light model suggests substantial free cash flow compounding. Catalysts include enterprise adoption, new vertical expansion, and continued penetration of recruitment budgets.
Pitch Summary:
Heico develops and sells aircraft parts that serve as alternatives to the expensive parts sold by original equipment manufacturers. Its non-original parts continue to take share of the total parts market due to their high quality and low prices – the latter maintained even as original part competitors price rapaciously. Strong demand from commercial airlines, coupled with optimism around higher defence spending and greater governme...
Pitch Summary:
Heico develops and sells aircraft parts that serve as alternatives to the expensive parts sold by original equipment manufacturers. Its non-original parts continue to take share of the total parts market due to their high quality and low prices – the latter maintained even as original part competitors price rapaciously. Strong demand from commercial airlines, coupled with optimism around higher defence spending and greater government efficiency, lifted Heico’s sales and earnings growth outlook during FY25. :contentReference[oaicite:1]{index=1}
BSD Analysis:
Heico’s long runway in PMA parts, plus consolidation tailwinds in aerospace maintenance, positions it for durable mid-teens earnings growth. Trading at a premium EV/EBITDA multiple versus peers is supported by consistently high ROIC and recurring aftermarket revenue. Defense budget expansion provides an incremental growth lever, while M&A remains a reliable compounding engine.
Pitch Summary:
Wise is the largest non-bank FX transfer service globally, with a Founder-led dedication to lowering fees on cross-border transactions. It has grown strongly for years as consumers and small businesses have gravitated to its attractively priced, convenient, fast, and transparent transfer offering. However, Wise’s ultimate goal is to replace the aging financial plumbing that banks use to facilitate currency transfers, a market multi...
Pitch Summary:
Wise is the largest non-bank FX transfer service globally, with a Founder-led dedication to lowering fees on cross-border transactions. It has grown strongly for years as consumers and small businesses have gravitated to its attractively priced, convenient, fast, and transparent transfer offering. However, Wise’s ultimate goal is to replace the aging financial plumbing that banks use to facilitate currency transfers, a market multiples the size of the consumer market. During FY25 Wise saw several large legacy banks adopt its B2B service, increasing the likelihood of it achieving this long-term goal. :contentReference[oaicite:0]{index=0}
BSD Analysis:
Wise’s model benefits from scale, strong unit economics, and a structurally advantaged cost base versus incumbents. Shares trade at a premium to traditional payment processors, supported by ~20–25% revenue growth and expanding operating leverage. With improving B2B traction and rising take rates, Wise’s multi-year earnings CAGR could exceed 20%. Key catalysts include additional bank partnerships, increasing international penetration, and continued margin expansion.
Pitch Summary:
Long: Dominant U.S. real estate listings platform positioned for profitability as Enhanced Markets (Flex) rollout doubles take rate and housing turnover normalizes. Scale, brand “verbification,” and engagement moat ensure Zillow captures the rebound in transaction volume.
BSD Analysis:
Zillow has >120mm MAUs and >80% organic traffic share, giving it unmatched lead flow in U.S. residential real estate. The new Flex model (revenue s...
Pitch Summary:
Long: Dominant U.S. real estate listings platform positioned for profitability as Enhanced Markets (Flex) rollout doubles take rate and housing turnover normalizes. Scale, brand “verbification,” and engagement moat ensure Zillow captures the rebound in transaction volume.
BSD Analysis:
Zillow has >120mm MAUs and >80% organic traffic share, giving it unmatched lead flow in U.S. residential real estate. The new Flex model (revenue share vs. ad spend) deepens integration with agents, lifting revenue/TTV 30% since 2021 and trending toward 16bps (vs. 10). GAAP profitability expected in 2025 with long-term 45% adj. EBITDA margin potential. As housing turnover rebounds from GFC lows (~3% p.a.) and mortgage rates ease, incremental revenue leverage and NOL shields drive value. Trading at ~35× 2021 EBIT with higher take rates, steady-state EV/EBIT ~21× (Rightmove comp) implies 2× upside.
Pitch Summary:
Westlake Corp (WLK) is a leading U.S. chlor-alkali and PVC producer trading near trough-cycle valuations at ~6.5× mid-cycle EBITDA and ~9% normalized ROIC. The company is experiencing depressed earnings due to temporary global oversupply, weak construction demand, and Chinese cost advantages. However, structural energy advantages from U.S. shale gas and limited new capacity should support a strong cyclical recovery. Westlake’s inte...
Pitch Summary:
Westlake Corp (WLK) is a leading U.S. chlor-alkali and PVC producer trading near trough-cycle valuations at ~6.5× mid-cycle EBITDA and ~9% normalized ROIC. The company is experiencing depressed earnings due to temporary global oversupply, weak construction demand, and Chinese cost advantages. However, structural energy advantages from U.S. shale gas and limited new capacity should support a strong cyclical recovery. Westlake’s integrated cost position and diversified exposure across PVC, polyethylene, and building products (Boral acquisition) provide resilience and significant operating leverage. Mid-cycle EBITDA of ~$2.7B implies normalized EPS of $9.22, valuing WLK at ~$110/share (35%+ upside). As margins recover and utilization improves, the company’s mix of cyclical exposure and downstream integration offers an attractive asymmetric setup.
BSD Analysis:
Westlake Corp represents a classic cyclical trough opportunity in U.S. petrochemicals. The company benefits from low-cost shale gas feedstock and high replacement costs, creating a durable structural advantage. Despite near-term weakness from Chinese overcapacity and slow housing demand, the long-term cost curve remains favorable. With limited new supply, rebounding construction activity, and mid-cycle normalization in chlor-alkali and PVC spreads, EBITDA and cash flow should rebound sharply. The family-controlled structure limits float and buybacks, but the downside is well supported by tangible assets and U.S. energy competitiveness.
Pitch Summary:
Long thesis on ItalMobiliare, an Italian holding company trading at ~50% discount to NAV despite owning several high-quality, high-growth assets. NAV per share has grown at ~7.5% CAGR since 2017 to €52.4 (adj. €61.1 incl. dividends), yet shares trade around €27.45. Core growth drivers include Caffè Borbone (Italy’s #1 single-serve coffee brand expanding into EU/US with compostable pods), Officina Profumo (luxury heritage fragrance/...
Pitch Summary:
Long thesis on ItalMobiliare, an Italian holding company trading at ~50% discount to NAV despite owning several high-quality, high-growth assets. NAV per share has grown at ~7.5% CAGR since 2017 to €52.4 (adj. €61.1 incl. dividends), yet shares trade around €27.45. Core growth drivers include Caffè Borbone (Italy’s #1 single-serve coffee brand expanding into EU/US with compostable pods), Officina Profumo (luxury heritage fragrance/cosmetics brand growing >15% annually), Bene Assicurazioni (fast-growing insurer with combined ratio ~95%), Italgen (hydro/solar assets benefiting from green energy demand), and CDS clinics (rapid rollout of outpatient centers). These businesses have billion-euro potential over time. Management, while not perfect capital allocators, ranks in the top quartile of European holdcos, though capital return remains frustratingly dividend-heavy instead of buybacks despite the NAV discount. NAV growth is supported by strong secular trends in coffee, luxury, healthcare, and renewable energy. Risks include weak portfolio companies (Tecnica, Iseo, Sidi, Capitelli) that could be divested, and “Eurostyle” reluctance to aggressively repurchase shares. Catalysts: execution of buybacks, potential IPO of Tecnica, or sale of weaker assets.
BSD Analysis:
Non-consensus because investors view ITM as a sleepy Italian holdco with mediocre capital allocation, missing the quality of growth assets (Borbone, Officina, CDS, Italgen, Bene) compounding at high single/double-digit rates. Market ignores NAV compounding and misprices due to dividend policy and governance optics. Discount to NAV near all-time highs offers a rare risk-adjusted entry point. Upside optionality from divesting laggards (Tecnica, Iseo, Sidi, Capitelli) and using proceeds for buybacks could accelerate NAV per share growth.
Pitch Summary:
Whitbread owns Premier Inn, the UK’s largest budget hotel brand (~86k rooms, 852 hotels) plus attached/stand-alone F&B sites, and a growing Germany arm (~11k rooms, 62 hotels). Its vertically integrated model (55% UK freehold, near-zero OTA dependence, direct distribution, shared staffing across clusters) trades cap intensity for tighter control of service, costs, and occupancy/pricing yield. Brand strength (93% aided awareness) an...
Pitch Summary:
Whitbread owns Premier Inn, the UK’s largest budget hotel brand (~86k rooms, 852 hotels) plus attached/stand-alone F&B sites, and a growing Germany arm (~11k rooms, 62 hotels). Its vertically integrated model (55% UK freehold, near-zero OTA dependence, direct distribution, shared staffing across clusters) trades cap intensity for tighter control of service, costs, and occupancy/pricing yield. Brand strength (93% aided awareness) and scale underpin a moat versus asset-light peers and independents; Google ratings across sampled markets skew above budget competitors. Balance sheet risk is low (bank debt <1x EBITDA; self-imposed lease-adjusted cap), giving it a high-quality covenant when competing for sites/extensions. UK remains the profit engine; Germany is the option—now near breakeven with improving RevPAR but still valued cautiously by the market despite ~£1.1bn committed. Management is shrinking lower-return F&B (divesting ~126 branded pubs, converting ~112 to rooms) to raise returns and simplify operations. RevPAR softness (esp. London) and weekly STR noise have weighed on sentiment despite long-run stability of short-stay business/leisure mix. Freehold portfolio last valued (2018) at £4.9–5.8bn, broadly in line with EV, offering asset backing vs. ~13% pre-tax ROCE on operations. Shares imply ~9% pre-expansion FCF yield / ~15x forward P/E—attractive if UK steadies and Germany contributes.
BSD Analysis:
Non-consensus because investors fixate on short-term RevPAR prints and discount the capital-heavy but moaty integrated model, while assigning little value to Germany just as KPIs turn. The property backing ≈ EV is underappreciated, providing downside support, and the pivot away from lower-return F&B to additional rooms should lift returns. Risks (cap intensity, Germany execution) are real, but leverage is modest and direct distribution avoids OTA take-rates, leaving operating leverage to Whitbread.