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Pitch Summary:
We continued to add to our position in Core & Main. The company distributes pipes and fittings used in water and waste-water applications to municipal customers and companies involved in residential and non-residential construction. Water infrastructure in the US has been underinvested in for years and has started to receive funding, including from the infrastructure bill. In addition, we have a long-term bullish view on both resid...
Pitch Summary:
We continued to add to our position in Core & Main. The company distributes pipes and fittings used in water and waste-water applications to municipal customers and companies involved in residential and non-residential construction. Water infrastructure in the US has been underinvested in for years and has started to receive funding, including from the infrastructure bill. In addition, we have a long-term bullish view on both residential and non-residential construction which should support a robust volume outlook for the company. The company has also been able to allocate capital to make accretive acquisitions and we expect this to continue.
BSD Analysis:
The manager is increasing the fund's position in Core & Main, driven by multiple structural growth catalysts in water infrastructure and construction markets. The investment thesis is anchored on decades of underinvestment in US water infrastructure, which is now receiving significant government funding through federal infrastructure legislation. This creates a multi-year tailwind for demand in the company's core water and wastewater distribution business. The manager's bullish outlook on both residential and non-residential construction provides additional volume growth drivers across Core & Main's end markets. The company's proven ability to execute accretive acquisitions adds a capital allocation component to the growth story, suggesting management can compound returns through strategic M&A. This combination of government infrastructure spending, construction market recovery, and acquisition-driven growth creates multiple avenues for value creation. The manager appears confident in the sustainability of these trends, justifying continued position building.
Pitch Summary:
We have also initiated a position in Allstate, the insurance business, which stands to benefit from a very positive auto insurance pricing market.
BSD Analysis:
The manager established a new position in Allstate to capitalize on favorable industry dynamics in auto insurance pricing. The investment thesis centers on the company's ability to benefit from a constructive pricing environment in the auto insurance market. This suggests ...
Pitch Summary:
We have also initiated a position in Allstate, the insurance business, which stands to benefit from a very positive auto insurance pricing market.
BSD Analysis:
The manager established a new position in Allstate to capitalize on favorable industry dynamics in auto insurance pricing. The investment thesis centers on the company's ability to benefit from a constructive pricing environment in the auto insurance market. This suggests the manager expects Allstate to achieve meaningful premium increases that should drive margin expansion and profitability improvements. The timing of this investment appears strategic, as the manager is positioning to capture the benefits of an improving pricing cycle in property and casualty insurance. Auto insurance represents a significant portion of Allstate's business, making the company well-positioned to benefit from industry-wide rate increases. The manager's confidence in the pricing environment suggests expectations for sustained profitability improvements. This cyclical positioning in insurance reflects opportunistic investing in sectors experiencing favorable supply-demand dynamics.
Pitch Summary:
We added Norfolk Southern, the rail freight business, where we see a cyclical recovery combined with revenue growth, margin harmonisation, and share buy backs.
BSD Analysis:
The manager initiated a position in Norfolk Southern based on multiple value creation catalysts converging simultaneously. The investment thesis combines cyclical recovery expectations with operational improvements and capital allocation benefits. The manager ...
Pitch Summary:
We added Norfolk Southern, the rail freight business, where we see a cyclical recovery combined with revenue growth, margin harmonisation, and share buy backs.
BSD Analysis:
The manager initiated a position in Norfolk Southern based on multiple value creation catalysts converging simultaneously. The investment thesis combines cyclical recovery expectations with operational improvements and capital allocation benefits. The manager anticipates revenue growth as freight demand recovers, while margin harmonization suggests operational efficiency gains across the railroad network. Share buybacks provide additional shareholder value creation through capital returns. This multi-faceted approach to value creation - combining cyclical tailwinds, operational leverage, and financial engineering - represents a comprehensive bull case. The railroad industry's asset-heavy nature and regulatory barriers create natural competitive moats. The manager appears to be positioning for both near-term cyclical recovery and longer-term operational improvements in this capital-intensive transportation sector.
Pitch Summary:
In contrast to Apple, we are overweight Meta, where we see a company that has reengineered its business through cost discipline and bolstered by the integration of AI within its advertising business. Following Apple's adjustment of its privacy settings on its operating system in 2021, Meta's ad revenue significantly declined due to its reduced ability to target users. What few realised was that Meta owned one of the fastest superco...
Pitch Summary:
In contrast to Apple, we are overweight Meta, where we see a company that has reengineered its business through cost discipline and bolstered by the integration of AI within its advertising business. Following Apple's adjustment of its privacy settings on its operating system in 2021, Meta's ad revenue significantly declined due to its reduced ability to target users. What few realised was that Meta owned one of the fastest supercomputers ever built (the AI Research SuperCluster) which was perfectly suited to regaining most of its signal and targeting ability through the use of AI. This acted as a significant support to the share price as ad revenue recovered.
BSD Analysis:
The manager presents a compelling bull case for Meta based on the company's successful business transformation and technological advantages. The thesis highlights Meta's effective cost discipline and strategic AI integration within its advertising platform as key value drivers. The manager demonstrates deep understanding of Meta's recovery from Apple's iOS privacy changes in 2021, which initially devastated the company's ad targeting capabilities. The investment thesis centers on Meta's proprietary AI Research SuperCluster, which the manager views as a competitive moat that enabled the company to rebuild its advertising effectiveness through artificial intelligence. This technological edge allowed Meta to recover its ad revenue and targeting precision, driving share price appreciation. The manager's overweight position reflects confidence in Meta's ability to leverage its AI infrastructure for sustained competitive advantage. The analysis suggests Meta has successfully navigated a major industry disruption and emerged stronger.
Pitch Summary:
Over the period we maintained an underweight position in Apple. Our thesis on Apple is driven by what we see as a company that has meagre growth prospects, that are overly reliant on one product, the iPhone. It is therefore sensitive to a softening in demand which of late has come from China, where Apple is experiencing an increase in competition from the likes of Huawei, and a general hostility towards Western companies. Despite t...
Pitch Summary:
Over the period we maintained an underweight position in Apple. Our thesis on Apple is driven by what we see as a company that has meagre growth prospects, that are overly reliant on one product, the iPhone. It is therefore sensitive to a softening in demand which of late has come from China, where Apple is experiencing an increase in competition from the likes of Huawei, and a general hostility towards Western companies. Despite the fundamental performance of Apple stalling, the company still holds a lofty valuation of around 26x P/E. Our underweight in the company proved to be our top relative contributor to performance over the period.
BSD Analysis:
The manager maintains a bearish stance on Apple, citing fundamental concerns about the company's growth trajectory and valuation. The thesis centers on Apple's over-reliance on iPhone sales, which represents a concentration risk as demand softens, particularly in the critical Chinese market. Competitive pressures from domestic Chinese manufacturers like Huawei, combined with broader geopolitical tensions affecting Western companies in China, pose significant headwinds. The manager views Apple's current 26x P/E multiple as excessive given the company's stagnating fundamental performance. This underweight position was the fund's top relative performance contributor during the quarter, validating the manager's cautious stance. The analysis suggests Apple faces both cyclical demand challenges and structural market share erosion in key regions. The manager appears to favor companies with clearer growth catalysts and more reasonable valuations.
Pitch Summary:
Maui Land & Pineapple has generated 20% alpha in a short period, despite no significant company developments. The company's land assets may be appealing during inflationary periods, but it lacks the typical growth dynamics of an operating business. The decision is to exit the position to avoid overstaying and potentially re-enter at a lower price.
BSD Analysis:
Real estate investments, particularly those focused on land, can offer...
Pitch Summary:
Maui Land & Pineapple has generated 20% alpha in a short period, despite no significant company developments. The company's land assets may be appealing during inflationary periods, but it lacks the typical growth dynamics of an operating business. The decision is to exit the position to avoid overstaying and potentially re-enter at a lower price.
BSD Analysis:
Real estate investments, particularly those focused on land, can offer a hedge against inflation. However, companies like Maui Land & Pineapple, which do not have active reinvestment opportunities, may not provide long-term growth. Investors should consider the balance between asset appreciation and the lack of operational growth when evaluating such investments.
Pitch Summary:
Vaxxinity's stock has decreased by nearly 90% since it was initially pitched. The company is struggling, and while there might be a chance to recover some equity value, the current situation is dire. The decision to claim victory on this short position reflects the substantial decline in stock value.
BSD Analysis:
The biotechnology sector, particularly companies focused on vaccine development, can be highly volatile. Vaxxinity's s...
Pitch Summary:
Vaxxinity's stock has decreased by nearly 90% since it was initially pitched. The company is struggling, and while there might be a chance to recover some equity value, the current situation is dire. The decision to claim victory on this short position reflects the substantial decline in stock value.
BSD Analysis:
The biotechnology sector, particularly companies focused on vaccine development, can be highly volatile. Vaxxinity's significant stock decline suggests challenges in its product pipeline or market acceptance. Investors should be wary of the inherent risks in biotech investments, especially those without established revenue streams or successful product launches.
Pitch Summary:
Fisker is facing severe financial difficulties and is likely heading towards bankruptcy, either Chapter 11 or Chapter 7. The stock has plummeted over 98% since it was initially discussed, and the cost to borrow shares is high. Given these circumstances, the decision has been made to exit the position.
BSD Analysis:
Fisker's financial instability is evident from its drastic stock price decline and the high borrowing costs associate...
Pitch Summary:
Fisker is facing severe financial difficulties and is likely heading towards bankruptcy, either Chapter 11 or Chapter 7. The stock has plummeted over 98% since it was initially discussed, and the cost to borrow shares is high. Given these circumstances, the decision has been made to exit the position.
BSD Analysis:
Fisker's financial instability is evident from its drastic stock price decline and the high borrowing costs associated with its shares. The company's potential bankruptcy indicates a lack of viable turnaround strategies or sufficient capital to sustain operations. Investors should be cautious of the risks associated with companies in the electric vehicle sector that lack strong financial backing or clear paths to profitability.
Pitch Summary:
We initiated a small position in Class A shares of Liberty Global (LBTYA), one of three share classes of Liberty Global. Liberty Global is a mobile communications company with ownership stakes in a number of European operations across Switzerland, the United Kingdom, Belgium, the Netherlands and Ireland. LBTYA trades at a more than 40% discount to our estimate of fair value and we believe company management is focused on closing th...
Pitch Summary:
We initiated a small position in Class A shares of Liberty Global (LBTYA), one of three share classes of Liberty Global. Liberty Global is a mobile communications company with ownership stakes in a number of European operations across Switzerland, the United Kingdom, Belgium, the Netherlands and Ireland. LBTYA trades at a more than 40% discount to our estimate of fair value and we believe company management is focused on closing this gap. The first step will be the spin-off of Liberty Global's Swiss business later this year. We estimate that the Swiss business, when separately listed, could account for more than half of Liberty Global's total current market capitalization and could leave its remaining businesses trading collectively at a more than 60% discount to fair value. The company has a history of aggressively repurchasing its own shares, having reduced share count across all three classes by nearly 60% in the past seven years. Liberty Global has announced a plan to repurchase up to another 10% of its shares this year.
BSD Analysis:
Greenlight Capital views Liberty Global as a classic sum-of-the-parts opportunity trading at a substantial discount to intrinsic value across its European telecommunications operations. The manager estimates LBTYA trades at more than a 40% discount to fair value, with management actively focused on closing this valuation gap through strategic initiatives. The upcoming spin-off of the Swiss business represents a key catalyst, as Greenlight estimates this single operation could account for over half of Liberty Global's current market capitalization. Post-spin, the remaining businesses (UK, Belgium, Netherlands, Ireland) would trade at an even steeper 60% discount to fair value, creating compelling relative value. Management's shareholder-friendly capital allocation history supports the investment thesis, having reduced share count by nearly 60% across all share classes over seven years through aggressive buybacks. The announced plan to repurchase up to 10% of shares this year demonstrates continued commitment to returning capital and unlocking value. Liberty Global's diversified European telecommunications footprint provides exposure to stable cash-generating assets in developed markets. The combination of structural discount, upcoming catalyst events, and management's proven track record of value creation through capital allocation makes this an attractive risk-adjusted opportunity in the communications sector.
Pitch Summary:
We established a small long position in Roivant Sciences (ROIV). ROIV is a biotech company focused primarily on inflammation and immunology therapies. In addition to an exciting pipeline, ROIV has a strong track record of positive trial results and successful monetization of pharmaceutical assets. The market currently believes core ROIV is effectively worthless, as the company has a market capitalization of about $9 billion, but ho...
Pitch Summary:
We established a small long position in Roivant Sciences (ROIV). ROIV is a biotech company focused primarily on inflammation and immunology therapies. In addition to an exciting pipeline, ROIV has a strong track record of positive trial results and successful monetization of pharmaceutical assets. The market currently believes core ROIV is effectively worthless, as the company has a market capitalization of about $9 billion, but holds over $6 billion of net cash and a $2.6 billion stake in its publicly traded subsidiary, Immunovant (IMVT). We believe there are several valuable assets inside the company, notably a broad patent estate around lipid nanoparticles used in COVID vaccines for which Moderna and Pfizer may owe ROIV several billion dollars in royalties, a potential multi-billion-dollar specialty autoimmune disease drug that recently passed its 7th successful Phase 2 trial and a novel topical agent to treat skin conditions such as psoriasis and atopic dermatitis. Additionally, we believe there are several other promising earlier stage assets inside ROIV. Lastly, the management team continues to find new opportunities to in-license from larger pharmaceutical companies. ROIV recently announced a $1.5 billion share repurchase program.
BSD Analysis:
Greenlight Capital identifies Roivant Sciences as a compelling sum-of-the-parts opportunity where the market is essentially valuing the core business at zero. With a $9 billion market cap but holding over $6 billion in net cash plus a $2.6 billion stake in subsidiary Immunovant, the core operations trade at a significant discount to tangible assets. The investment thesis centers on multiple valuable hidden assets, including a broad lipid nanoparticle patent estate that could generate several billion dollars in royalties from Moderna and Pfizer's COVID vaccine usage. ROIV's specialty autoimmune drug candidate represents potential multi-billion-dollar value, having successfully completed its 7th Phase 2 trial, demonstrating consistent clinical execution. The company's novel topical treatments for psoriasis and atopic dermatitis add additional pipeline value in large addressable markets. Management's proven track record of positive trial results and successful asset monetization, combined with ongoing in-licensing opportunities from major pharmaceutical companies, supports the value creation thesis. The recently announced $1.5 billion share repurchase program demonstrates management's commitment to returning capital and closing the valuation gap. This represents a classic biotech value play with multiple shots on goal and substantial downside protection from cash and liquid holdings.
Pitch Summary:
The title of our Sohn presentation was "Solve AI," which was a play on Solvay's corporate name. Nonetheless, we established another new long position that actually stands to benefit from AI, which we believe is not reflected in the current stock price. HP Inc. (HPQ) sells computers, printers and adjacent products and supplies. We established an initial position at an average price of $30.76 per share, which is about 9x current year...
Pitch Summary:
The title of our Sohn presentation was "Solve AI," which was a play on Solvay's corporate name. Nonetheless, we established another new long position that actually stands to benefit from AI, which we believe is not reflected in the current stock price. HP Inc. (HPQ) sells computers, printers and adjacent products and supplies. We established an initial position at an average price of $30.76 per share, which is about 9x current year earnings estimates. Recent results reflect a two-and-a-half-year cyclical downturn in demand for computers, which followed a mini-boom driven by COVID and related demand for equipment to work-from-home. We believe that we are, at a minimum, on the cusp of a normal PC refresh cycle, which should drive earnings above estimates. HPQ has committed to return 100% of free cash flow to shareholders through buybacks and dividends. The shares have a 3.6% dividend yield and we estimate HPQ has the capacity to buy back 25-30% of the outstanding shares over the next three years. The more exciting opportunity is through a possible AI-driven PC adoption cycle, fueling higher unit prices and a more robust PC market recovery. Currently, investor attention around AI is focused on cloud service providers and related equipment. This summer, Intel plans to release a neural processing unit (NPU), which will allow AI functionality on local devices. Microsoft has teased AI features that are coming in the next Windows update later this year, which may require a computer with an NPU to fully function. One such application is believed to be 'AI Explorer,' which is described as an "advanced Copilot" with a built-in history/timeline feature that turns everything you do on your computer into a searchable repository using natural language. It is said to work across any application and allows users to search for previously opened conversations, documents, web pages and images. While we have spoken with experts that are divided between being enthusiastic and skeptical of an AI PC cycle, we don't believe any of the optimism is currently reflected in the share price.
BSD Analysis:
Greenlight Capital views HP Inc. as an undervalued cyclical recovery play with significant AI upside optionality that the market is overlooking. Trading at just 9x current earnings estimates, HPQ appears attractively valued as it emerges from a two-and-a-half-year PC demand downturn following the COVID work-from-home boom. The manager expects at minimum a normal PC refresh cycle to drive earnings above estimates, supported by the company's commitment to return 100% of free cash flow through dividends (3.6% yield) and aggressive share buybacks. HPQ's capacity to repurchase 25-30% of outstanding shares over three years provides substantial capital return and potential multiple expansion. The more compelling opportunity lies in a potential AI-driven PC adoption cycle, which could fuel higher unit prices and accelerated market recovery. Intel's upcoming neural processing unit (NPU) release and Microsoft's AI-enhanced Windows features, including 'AI Explorer' with natural language search capabilities, could drive hardware upgrade cycles. While expert opinions on AI PC adoption remain divided, Greenlight believes none of this optimism is reflected in the current share price, creating asymmetric upside potential. The investment combines defensive value characteristics with meaningful AI exposure at an attractive entry point.
Pitch Summary:
We established a new medium-sized position in Penn National Gaming (PENN) at an average price of $22.69 per share, but, for reasons discussed below, the shares fell to $18.21 by quarter-end. As referenced above, we established a medium-sized position in PENN, an operator of regional casinos. PENN's current enterprise value is just over $4.3 billion, and based on an 8-12x multiple of free cash flow, we value their land-based casinos...
Pitch Summary:
We established a new medium-sized position in Penn National Gaming (PENN) at an average price of $22.69 per share, but, for reasons discussed below, the shares fell to $18.21 by quarter-end. As referenced above, we established a medium-sized position in PENN, an operator of regional casinos. PENN's current enterprise value is just over $4.3 billion, and based on an 8-12x multiple of free cash flow, we value their land-based casinos between $4.3 billion and $7 billion. PENN also competes in online gaming, particularly sports betting, and we believe the market ascribes a substantial negative value to that effort. To be fair, the online segment has a checkered history. In 2020, PENN acquired a minority stake of Barstool Sports, and three years later agreed to purchase the rest, for a grand total of $551 million. That acquisition was a complete failure, and the company wound up abandoning the investment. It also spent $2 billion in 2021 to acquire Score Media and Gaming to establish a better online sports betting platform. Last year, it entered into a deal with ESPN to launch and operate ESPN BET. Successful sports betting franchises can have substantial value. DraftKings is the leader and is valued at over $20 billion. Through ESPN BET, PENN aspires to achieve top-three status in the industry. Given that the market is ascribing negative value to ESPN BET, it's fair to say that after the Barstool fiasco, investors have serious doubts about the company's strategy and management's competence to execute. Were the market to credit PENN with merely 15% of DraftKings' value, that segment alone would be worth $20 per share. PENN launched ESPN BET last November. The launch was largely successful and led them to achieve a top-three user share by adding one million customers in less than two months. This result was much better than expected and enabled PENN to project turning a profit a year earlier than its previous guidance. To accomplish this, the company spent more on upfront marketing to acquire customers than it had indicated. Though we had believed the rationale for increased spending was well understood, the market focused on the higher spend and punished the shares.
BSD Analysis:
Greenlight Capital sees significant value in Penn National Gaming, viewing the market's negative assessment of ESPN BET as creating an attractive entry point. The manager values PENN's land-based casino operations at $4.3-7 billion based on 8-12x free cash flow multiples, essentially covering the entire enterprise value and making the online sports betting segment a free option. Despite past failures with Barstool Sports ($551 million loss) and Score Media ($2 billion acquisition), ESPN BET's successful launch demonstrates management's improved execution, achieving top-three user share with one million customers in under two months. The market's skepticism following previous online gaming missteps has created a valuation disconnect, with ESPN BET trading at negative value despite its promising early metrics. If ESPN BET achieves just 15% of DraftKings' $20 billion valuation, it would be worth $20 per share alone, representing significant upside from current levels. The accelerated profitability timeline, moving up by one year due to strong customer acquisition, validates the strategic partnership with ESPN. However, the market's focus on higher-than-expected marketing spend rather than superior customer acquisition results reflects the ongoing skepticism that creates the investment opportunity.
Pitch Summary:
Last quarter, we wrote about a new small position in Syensqo, a spin-out of Solvay, while alluding to a new top 5 position that we were still accumulating at year-end. That position is the former parent, new Solvay (Belgium: SOLB), which we unveiled on April 3rd at the Sohn Investment Conference in New York. SOLB is an essential chemicals business. Its key products are soda ash (sodium carbonate) and BICAR (sodium bicarbonate), per...
Pitch Summary:
Last quarter, we wrote about a new small position in Syensqo, a spin-out of Solvay, while alluding to a new top 5 position that we were still accumulating at year-end. That position is the former parent, new Solvay (Belgium: SOLB), which we unveiled on April 3rd at the Sohn Investment Conference in New York. SOLB is an essential chemicals business. Its key products are soda ash (sodium carbonate) and BICAR (sodium bicarbonate), peroxides, silicas, fluorine and rare earth formulations and solvents. We established our position at an average price of €22.89 per share. By our estimates, SOLB earned over €5 pro forma per share last year. This year, due to falling soda ash prices, earnings are likely to be in the high €3s or low €4s. We believe this will be a trough result and that the shares were undervalued at less than 6x those earnings. Over the intermediate term, management intends to cut costs and expand some operations, which if successful, should help generate earnings of almost €7 per share by 2028. The company has a conservative balance sheet and a nearly 10% dividend yield. SOLB shares ended the quarter at €25.30.
BSD Analysis:
Greenlight Capital established a top 5 position in Solvay, viewing the essential chemicals company as significantly undervalued at less than 6x trough earnings. The manager believes current earnings of high €3s to low €4s represent a cyclical bottom due to falling soda ash prices, with pro forma earnings of over €5 per share last year providing a baseline. Management's cost-cutting initiatives and operational expansion plans could drive earnings to nearly €7 per share by 2028, representing substantial upside potential. The investment thesis is supported by Solvay's conservative balance sheet and attractive nearly 10% dividend yield, providing downside protection and current income. The company's essential chemicals portfolio, including soda ash, sodium bicarbonate, peroxides, and specialty formulations, serves critical industrial applications with stable demand characteristics. Greenlight's conviction is evidenced by making this a top 5 position and presenting the thesis at the prestigious Sohn Investment Conference. The 10.5% gain from entry price to quarter-end validates the manager's timing and valuation assessment.
Pitch Summary:
Perrigo, a consumer healthcare company and a prominent player in the consumer self-care sector, has undergone a significant transformation in recent years. Despite this positive trajectory, we believe the current share price fails to adequately reflect the true earning potential of the business. The notable decline in earnings over the past year can be attributed to the ongoing plant-wide reset of its infant formula facilities, wit...
Pitch Summary:
Perrigo, a consumer healthcare company and a prominent player in the consumer self-care sector, has undergone a significant transformation in recent years. Despite this positive trajectory, we believe the current share price fails to adequately reflect the true earning potential of the business. The notable decline in earnings over the past year can be attributed to the ongoing plant-wide reset of its infant formula facilities, with two of the three facilities slated to remain on reset throughout this year. However, looking ahead to 2025, we believe Perrigo is trading at less than 10x normalized earnings. Our earnings analysis excludes the potential value stemming from Opill, the first daily birth control pill available without requiring a prescription in the US. Given its innovative nature, Opill presents a compelling upsize for Perrigo, potentially unlocking significant revenue in the coming years.
BSD Analysis:
Tourlite identifies Perrigo as an undervalued consumer healthcare transformation story trading below normalized earnings potential. The manager attributes recent earnings weakness to temporary infant formula facility resets, with two of three facilities remaining offline through 2024, creating a clear operational recovery catalyst. The less than 10x normalized 2025 earnings multiple suggests significant valuation upside as operations normalize and margins recover. Opill, the first over-the-counter daily birth control pill in the US, represents a major innovation catalyst with substantial revenue potential excluded from current valuations. The manager views Perrigo's transformation into a focused consumer self-care leader as underappreciated by the market. This represents a classic operational turnaround with regulatory innovation upside. The combination of facility normalization and Opill commercialization provides multiple value creation drivers. Tourlite sees compelling risk-adjusted returns in this healthcare transformation play.
Pitch Summary:
With over half of its market capitalization comprised of cash, Roivant remains an attractive opportunity. Roivant has experienced three significant recent developments: 1. Management announced a share repurchase program of up to 1.5 billion shares, including Sumitomo Pharma's stake for $648 million ($9.10 per share), which is highly accretive to shareholders. 2. Arbutus secured victories in three out of four claims during the lates...
Pitch Summary:
With over half of its market capitalization comprised of cash, Roivant remains an attractive opportunity. Roivant has experienced three significant recent developments: 1. Management announced a share repurchase program of up to 1.5 billion shares, including Sumitomo Pharma's stake for $648 million ($9.10 per share), which is highly accretive to shareholders. 2. Arbutus secured victories in three out of four claims during the latest Claim Construction Hearing, particularly winning the claim supportive of the '378 patent. 3. Brepocitinib reported robust data from their Phase 2 Neptune study in non-infection uveitis (NIU) and is poised to commence a Phase 3 program in the latter half of the year. The NIU indication remains a substantial potential revenue opportunity for Roivant, estimated at over a billion dollars.
BSD Analysis:
Tourlite presents a compelling bull case for Roivant Sciences, emphasizing the company's substantial cash position representing over half its market capitalization as downside protection. The massive 1.5 billion share repurchase program, including the $648 million Sumitomo Pharma stake acquisition at $9.10 per share, demonstrates aggressive capital return and management confidence. The Arbutus patent litigation victories, particularly the supportive '378 patent claim, strengthen Roivant's intellectual property position and potential royalty streams. Brepocitinib's robust Phase 2 Neptune study data in non-infection uveitis provides a clear path to Phase 3 trials and potential billion-dollar revenue opportunity. The manager views Roivant as offering asymmetric risk-reward with significant cash backing and multiple value catalysts. This represents a diversified biotech platform with reduced single-asset risk. The combination of defensive cash position and offensive growth catalysts creates an attractive investment profile.
Pitch Summary:
Our thesis was driven by a catalyst tied to a significant litigation payout expected in Q1 2024. At the end of 2023, Esperion's stock saw substantial appreciation. The $125 million settlement received in January, while falling short of the initial $300 million expectation, extended the business's cash runway. As our thesis has played out, we exited our position in January. Due to the stock selling off on the litigation announcement...
Pitch Summary:
Our thesis was driven by a catalyst tied to a significant litigation payout expected in Q1 2024. At the end of 2023, Esperion's stock saw substantial appreciation. The $125 million settlement received in January, while falling short of the initial $300 million expectation, extended the business's cash runway. As our thesis has played out, we exited our position in January. Due to the stock selling off on the litigation announcement, it resulted in a detraction from first quarter performance, although a net profitable trade.
BSD Analysis:
Tourlite executed a catalyst-driven investment in Esperion Therapeutics based on anticipated litigation proceeds, demonstrating their event-driven investment approach. The manager's thesis centered on a significant legal settlement expected in Q1 2024, which materialized at $125 million versus initial $300 million expectations. Despite the lower-than-expected settlement amount, the proceeds extended Esperion's cash runway and provided financial flexibility. The position was successfully exited in January following the catalyst realization, though subsequent stock weakness created a performance headwind. This represents a classic special situations investment where the manager identified a specific catalyst and executed around the event. The trade's profitability despite Q1 performance impact demonstrates disciplined risk management. Tourlite's approach reflects expertise in biotech litigation catalysts and event-driven opportunities.
Pitch Summary:
Purple is part of our "broken stocks" basket where we believe current valuations present attractive asymmetric opportunities. These businesses have significant upside once macroeconomic headwinds abate and business fundamentals reaccelerate. Purple has new management, changed its business model, sentiment on housing related stocks is bottoming and consensus estimates are low. We don't necessarily believe these share prices will ret...
Pitch Summary:
Purple is part of our "broken stocks" basket where we believe current valuations present attractive asymmetric opportunities. These businesses have significant upside once macroeconomic headwinds abate and business fundamentals reaccelerate. Purple has new management, changed its business model, sentiment on housing related stocks is bottoming and consensus estimates are low. We don't necessarily believe these share prices will return to their all-time highs, but in many cases, a 2-5x is within reach under reasonable assumptions. Purple and RealReal (REAL) are the two largest in the basket.
BSD Analysis:
Tourlite positions Purple Innovation as a contrarian value play within their "broken stocks" strategy, targeting companies with significant asymmetric upside potential. The manager identifies multiple catalysts including new management leadership, business model transformation, and improving housing market sentiment. Low consensus estimates provide a favorable setup for potential earnings surprises as macroeconomic headwinds subside. The 2-5x return potential reflects the manager's confidence in Purple's recovery trajectory without requiring a return to historical peak valuations. This represents a classic turnaround investment thesis betting on operational improvements and multiple re-rating. The housing-related exposure provides cyclical leverage as market conditions normalize. Tourlite views current valuations as disconnected from Purple's fundamental improvement potential.
Pitch Summary:
APi Group continues to make strides in integrating Chubb, demonstrating positive organic growth in fiscal year 2023 with recurring service revenue on an upward trajectory. We anticipate further margin expansion in 2024. We continue to believe APG is a highly attractive opportunity with a cash earnings yield of double its peers. Management's strategic decision to repurchase 16.3 million shares from Viking and Blackstone (in exchange...
Pitch Summary:
APi Group continues to make strides in integrating Chubb, demonstrating positive organic growth in fiscal year 2023 with recurring service revenue on an upward trajectory. We anticipate further margin expansion in 2024. We continue to believe APG is a highly attractive opportunity with a cash earnings yield of double its peers. Management's strategic decision to repurchase 16.3 million shares from Viking and Blackstone (in exchange for preferred shares) at approximately $37 per share not only streamlines APG's capital structure but also presents a highly accretive opportunity for long-term shareholders. On April 15th, APi announced the acquisition of Elevated Facility Services Group, a leading independent service provider of elevator maintenance, repair, and modernization. While we anticipate delving deeper in future letters, we find the addition of this new vertical, the potential for further tuck-in M&A activity, and the prospects for cross-selling opportunities to be interesting.
BSD Analysis:
Tourlite presents a compelling value proposition for APi Group, emphasizing successful integration of the Chubb acquisition and strong organic growth momentum. The manager highlights APG's attractive valuation with cash earnings yields double that of industry peers, suggesting significant undervaluation. The strategic share repurchase from Viking and Blackstone at $37 per share demonstrates management's confidence while simplifying the capital structure through preferred share exchanges. The recent acquisition of Elevated Facility Services Group expands APG's service verticals into elevator maintenance, creating cross-selling opportunities and platform for additional tuck-in acquisitions. Recurring service revenue growth provides earnings visibility and margin expansion potential. The manager views APG as benefiting from both operational improvements and multiple expansion. This represents a classic value play with operational catalysts and capital allocation discipline.
Pitch Summary:
FTAI continues to experience favorable developments in its aerospace segment. Given the current aircraft shortage, we believe that FTAI's leasing and aerospace businesses are positioned to capitalize. The heightened demand for aircraft leases will drive the need for efficient maintenance solutions, positioning FTAI's modular factory as a quick and cost-effective option. Additionally, the pending PMA approval serves as a near-term c...
Pitch Summary:
FTAI continues to experience favorable developments in its aerospace segment. Given the current aircraft shortage, we believe that FTAI's leasing and aerospace businesses are positioned to capitalize. The heightened demand for aircraft leases will drive the need for efficient maintenance solutions, positioning FTAI's modular factory as a quick and cost-effective option. Additionally, the pending PMA approval serves as a near-term catalyst, further enhancing the company's growth prospects in the aerospace sector.
BSD Analysis:
Tourlite maintains a bullish stance on FTAI Aviation, capitalizing on structural aircraft supply shortages driving favorable industry dynamics. The manager identifies FTAI's dual positioning in both aircraft leasing and maintenance as a strategic advantage during periods of constrained aircraft availability. The company's modular factory approach provides cost-effective and rapid maintenance solutions, addressing critical industry bottlenecks. The pending Parts Manufacturing Approval (PMA) represents a near-term regulatory catalyst that could unlock additional revenue streams and margin expansion. The thesis centers on FTAI's ability to monetize aircraft scarcity through both leasing premiums and maintenance demand. This cyclical positioning appears well-timed given current supply chain constraints in aerospace. The manager views FTAI as benefiting from multiple aerospace tailwinds simultaneously.
Pitch Summary:
FIP has continued to exceed expectations as business fundamentals are in the early innings of inflection, as FTAI was a year ago. FIP is strategically positioned with various options to optimize its balance sheet. With Jefferson Terminal witnessing a steady uptick in throughput volumes from executed contracts, the potential sale of this asset remains on the table. Additionally, Transtar's growth trajectory, driven by price adjustme...
Pitch Summary:
FIP has continued to exceed expectations as business fundamentals are in the early innings of inflection, as FTAI was a year ago. FIP is strategically positioned with various options to optimize its balance sheet. With Jefferson Terminal witnessing a steady uptick in throughput volumes from executed contracts, the potential sale of this asset remains on the table. Additionally, Transtar's growth trajectory, driven by price adjustments and the establishment of a new car repair facility, positions it favorably, with a current estimated value of a billion dollars.
BSD Analysis:
Tourlite presents a compelling bull case for FTAI Infrastructure, emphasizing the company's early-stage fundamental inflection similar to FTAI Aviation's trajectory a year prior. The manager highlights FIP's strategic positioning with multiple balance sheet optimization options, including the potential divestiture of Jefferson Terminal. The terminal's improving operational metrics, evidenced by rising throughput volumes from executed contracts, supports the asset's monetization potential. Transtar's billion-dollar estimated valuation is driven by pricing power and capacity expansion through a new car repair facility. The manager views FIP as benefiting from infrastructure tailwinds and operational leverage. The pitch suggests significant value creation potential through both organic growth and strategic asset optimization. This represents a high-conviction position in the manager's infrastructure investment thesis.