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| Quarter | Letter Date | Fund Name | QTD | YTD | Tickers | Themes | Quick Take |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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"Horos delivers exceptionally strong returns in 2025 but maintains a highly cautious stance on the US equity market and the speculative AI bubble. The managers are actively deploying capital into deeply undervalued European/Iberian assets and corporate credit where a robust margin of safety exists."
Horos closes 2025 celebrating key milestones, including the successful launch of Horos Patrimonio (exceeding €40M AUM) and total AUM surpassing €400M. The letter highlights a wild year in the markets where the S&P 500 closed up nearly 18% despite heavy macro shocks, alongside explosive rallies in gold, silver, and platinum reflecting rising concerns over sovereign debt solvency. Horos outlines its cautious stance on the US market due to historic valuations (CAPE ~41x) and passive-flow distortions. The team explores the speculative AI landscape through game theory, labeling it a 'rational bubble' where firms are forced to overinvest. To find true value in an expensive market, Horos outlines 'the three-body problem' (the difficulty of finding good, attractive, and cheap assets simultaneously) and discusses how they capitalised on this in the past with AerCap and Naspers. Key portfolio changes in Q4 included adding Zigup and DIA, exiting Spartan Delta and Petershill Partners, and adding Vidrala to the Iberia fund.
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Algorithmic conviction, macroeconomic posture, and risk appetite signals extracted from this quarterly letter with qualitative explanations.
Market Conviction
High-conviction positioning: Horos delivers exceptionally strong returns in 2025 but maintains a highly cautious stance on the US equity market and the speculative AI bubble. The managers are actively deployin...
Growth Outlook
Market outlook remains low conviction: Horos delivers exceptionally strong returns in 2025 but maintains a highly cautious stance on the US equity market and the speculative AI bubble. The managers are actively deployin...
Risk Appetite
Risk appetite posture is moderate conviction: Horos delivers exceptionally strong returns in 2025 but maintains a highly cautious stance on the US equity market and the speculative AI bubble. The managers are actively deployin...
Capital Deployment
Manager actively deployed capital into high-conviction opportunities. Horos delivers exceptionally strong returns in 2025 but maintains a highly cautious stance on the US equity market and the speculative AI bubble. The managers are actively deployin...
Forward Guidance
Forward guidance signal: Horos delivers exceptionally strong returns in 2025 but maintains a highly cautious stance on the US equity market and the speculative AI bubble. The managers are actively deployin...
Language Signal
Tone analysis indicates high conviction language: Horos delivers exceptionally strong returns in 2025 but maintains a highly cautious stance on the US equity market and the speculative AI bubble. The managers are actively deployin...
Perceived Risk
Perceived risk level is evaluated as above average conviction. Horos delivers exceptionally strong returns in 2025 but maintains a highly cautious stance on the US equity market and the speculative AI bubble. The managers are actively deployin...
Opportunity Density
Opportunity density index indicates moderate conviction actionable entry points. Horos delivers exceptionally strong returns in 2025 but maintains a highly cautious stance on the US equity market and the speculative AI bubble. The managers are actively deployin...
Time Horizon
Investment time horizon reflects a high conviction orientation. Horos delivers exceptionally strong returns in 2025 but maintains a highly cautious stance on the US equity market and the speculative AI bubble. The managers are actively deployin...
