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| Quarter | Letter Date | Fund Name | QTD | YTD | Tickers | Themes | Quick Take |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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"Smead Value Fund warns of a historic valuation bubble in the S&P 500 that will trigger a decade of poor index returns, choosing instead to focus on resilient, out-of-favor sectors like homebuilding, healthcare, and energy."
Smead Value Fund underperformed both the S&P 500 and the Russell 1000 Value Index in the fourth quarter of 2025, generating a modest return of 0.30%. Best-performing holdings for the quarter and full year included Merck, Amgen, and American Express, while homebuilders Lennar and DR Horton detracted due to high interest rates. Lead PM Bill Smead asserts the US stock market has reached a state of extreme euphoria, marked by the Wilshire 5000 trading at 220% of GDP and media adoration of AI executives. Drawing parallels to the 1999 DotCom peak, the fund expects the cap-weighted S&P 500 to produce negative compounded capital returns over the next decade. Consequently, they are playing the long game, positioning in heavily discounted, resilient sectors like healthcare, energy, and homebuilders.
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Algorithmic conviction, macroeconomic posture, and risk appetite signals extracted from this quarterly letter with qualitative explanations.
Market Conviction
High-conviction positioning: Smead Value Fund warns of a historic valuation bubble in the S&P 500 that will trigger a decade of poor index returns, choosing instead to focus on resilient, out-of-favor sectors ...
Growth Outlook
Market outlook remains very low conviction: Smead Value Fund warns of a historic valuation bubble in the S&P 500 that will trigger a decade of poor index returns, choosing instead to focus on resilient, out-of-favor sectors ...
Risk Appetite
Risk appetite posture is low conviction: Smead Value Fund warns of a historic valuation bubble in the S&P 500 that will trigger a decade of poor index returns, choosing instead to focus on resilient, out-of-favor sectors ...
Capital Deployment
Manager actively deployed capital into high-conviction opportunities. Smead Value Fund warns of a historic valuation bubble in the S&P 500 that will trigger a decade of poor index returns, choosing instead to focus on resilient, out-of-favor sectors ...
Forward Guidance
Forward guidance signal: Smead Value Fund warns of a historic valuation bubble in the S&P 500 that will trigger a decade of poor index returns, choosing instead to focus on resilient, out-of-favor sectors ...
Language Signal
Tone analysis indicates high conviction language: Smead Value Fund warns of a historic valuation bubble in the S&P 500 that will trigger a decade of poor index returns, choosing instead to focus on resilient, out-of-favor sectors ...
Perceived Risk
Perceived risk level is evaluated as high conviction. Smead Value Fund warns of a historic valuation bubble in the S&P 500 that will trigger a decade of poor index returns, choosing instead to focus on resilient, out-of-favor sectors ...
Opportunity Density
Opportunity density index indicates above average conviction actionable entry points. Smead Value Fund warns of a historic valuation bubble in the S&P 500 that will trigger a decade of poor index returns, choosing instead to focus on resilient, out-of-favor sectors ...
Time Horizon
Investment time horizon reflects a high conviction orientation. Smead Value Fund warns of a historic valuation bubble in the S&P 500 that will trigger a decade of poor index returns, choosing instead to focus on resilient, out-of-favor sectors ...
