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| Quarter | Letter Date | Fund Name | QTD | YTD | Tickers | Themes | Quick Take |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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"The traditional 60/40 model is dead as stock-bond correlations turn positive under a politicized Fed, establishing gold and precious metals as the ultimate structural safe havens."
In Q3 2025, global markets reached all-time highs with all 12 major asset classes ending in positive territory. The NCM Enhanced Physical Gold Macro Fund surged +57% year-to-date, outperforming gold by more than 11 percentage points of alpha. This outperformance was driven by convictions in satellite precious metals (silver and platinum) and FX carry trades. The managers argue that the independence of the Federal Reserve is fundamentally broken as it cuts rates at full employment and tolerates high fiscal deficits. Consequently, U.S. Treasuries no longer provide reliable diversification, establishing gold as the premier and irreplaceable structural safe haven for modern portfolios.
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Algorithmic conviction, macroeconomic posture, and risk appetite signals extracted from this quarterly letter with qualitative explanations.
Market Conviction
High-conviction positioning: The traditional 60/40 model is dead as stock-bond correlations turn positive under a politicized Fed, establishing gold and precious metals as the ultimate structural safe havens....
Growth Outlook
Market outlook remains above average conviction: The traditional 60/40 model is dead as stock-bond correlations turn positive under a politicized Fed, establishing gold and precious metals as the ultimate structural safe havens....
Risk Appetite
Risk appetite posture is above average conviction: The traditional 60/40 model is dead as stock-bond correlations turn positive under a politicized Fed, establishing gold and precious metals as the ultimate structural safe havens....
Capital Deployment
Manager actively deployed capital into high-conviction opportunities. The traditional 60/40 model is dead as stock-bond correlations turn positive under a politicized Fed, establishing gold and precious metals as the ultimate structural safe havens....
Forward Guidance
Forward guidance signal: The traditional 60/40 model is dead as stock-bond correlations turn positive under a politicized Fed, establishing gold and precious metals as the ultimate structural safe havens....
Language Signal
Tone analysis indicates high conviction language: The traditional 60/40 model is dead as stock-bond correlations turn positive under a politicized Fed, establishing gold and precious metals as the ultimate structural safe havens....
Perceived Risk
Perceived risk level is evaluated as moderate conviction. The traditional 60/40 model is dead as stock-bond correlations turn positive under a politicized Fed, establishing gold and precious metals as the ultimate structural safe havens....
Opportunity Density
Opportunity density index indicates high conviction actionable entry points. The traditional 60/40 model is dead as stock-bond correlations turn positive under a politicized Fed, establishing gold and precious metals as the ultimate structural safe havens....
Time Horizon
Investment time horizon reflects a high conviction orientation. The traditional 60/40 model is dead as stock-bond correlations turn positive under a politicized Fed, establishing gold and precious metals as the ultimate structural safe havens....
