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| Quarter | Letter Date | Fund Name | QTD | YTD | Tickers | Themes | Quick Take |
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"Myrmikan Capital delivers a stark warning that modern central banking mirrors the monetary failures of the Roman Empire, predicting that continuous dollar debasement will lead to hyperinflation or massive default, while framing gold at $4,000/oz as a significant bargain."
In this investor letter, formatted as a speech given at the New Orleans Investment Conference, Daniel Oliver of Myrmikan Capital, LLC outlines a historical comparison between modern central banking and the economic collapses of the Roman and Byzantine Empires. Oliver criticizes the view of economics as a science driven by data and formulas, instead defining it as a humanity. He compares modern Fed bailouts and stimulus packages to the interventions of Roman emperors Augustus, Tiberius, and Diocletian, demonstrating how artificial low rates consistently lead to asset bubbles, overcapacity, deflationary crashes, and eventually hyperinflation via currency debasement. Oliver highlights that the quality of assets on the Federal Reserve's balance sheet is deteriorating. He notes that with gold currently priced around $4,000/oz, it remains highly undervalued compared to historical coverage ratios, which would imply a gold price of $8,500 to $13,000/oz.
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Algorithmic conviction, macroeconomic posture, and risk appetite signals extracted from this quarterly letter with qualitative explanations.
Market Conviction
High-conviction positioning: Myrmikan Capital delivers a stark warning that modern central banking mirrors the monetary failures of the Roman Empire, predicting that continuous dollar debasement will lead to h...
Growth Outlook
Market outlook remains very low conviction: Myrmikan Capital delivers a stark warning that modern central banking mirrors the monetary failures of the Roman Empire, predicting that continuous dollar debasement will lead to h...
Risk Appetite
Risk appetite posture is very low conviction: Myrmikan Capital delivers a stark warning that modern central banking mirrors the monetary failures of the Roman Empire, predicting that continuous dollar debasement will lead to h...
Capital Deployment
Capital deployment remained balanced with selective rotation across positions. Myrmikan Capital delivers a stark warning that modern central banking mirrors the monetary failures of the Roman Empire, predicting that continuous dollar debasement will lead to h...
Forward Guidance
Forward guidance signal: Myrmikan Capital delivers a stark warning that modern central banking mirrors the monetary failures of the Roman Empire, predicting that continuous dollar debasement will lead to h...
Language Signal
Tone analysis indicates high conviction language: Myrmikan Capital delivers a stark warning that modern central banking mirrors the monetary failures of the Roman Empire, predicting that continuous dollar debasement will lead to h...
Perceived Risk
Perceived risk level is evaluated as high conviction. Myrmikan Capital delivers a stark warning that modern central banking mirrors the monetary failures of the Roman Empire, predicting that continuous dollar debasement will lead to h...
Opportunity Density
Opportunity density index indicates low conviction actionable entry points. Myrmikan Capital delivers a stark warning that modern central banking mirrors the monetary failures of the Roman Empire, predicting that continuous dollar debasement will lead to h...
Time Horizon
Investment time horizon reflects a high conviction orientation. Myrmikan Capital delivers a stark warning that modern central banking mirrors the monetary failures of the Roman Empire, predicting that continuous dollar debasement will lead to h...
