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Fund Returns
QTD+15.08%
YTD+27.2%
Annualized+0.1157%
Positioning StanceCAUTIOUS
Market CapSMID Cap
Digest Analysis
Quick Take
"Forager is capitalizing on a major small-cap recovery but raising warning flags about macro debt and valuations, prompting them to lock in profits from peak-valuation winners like Catapult and build cash."
Executive Summary
Forager Funds experienced exceptional returns over the September 2025 quarter, with the flagship Australian Shares Fund achieving a 15.08% return and the International Shares Fund rising 2.93%. CIO Steve Johnson details how the long-awaited recovery in small-caps is playing out, yet warns of macro red flags including gold reaching US$3,800/oz and high long-term bond yields. True to their process, the funds are exiting successful positions that have reached peak valuations (such as Catapult and Gentrack), holding significant cash positions (14.2% in FASF, 8.5% in FISF), and shifting capital to lower-risk, highly-resilient compounders. Major portfolio updates cover successes like Cuscal (acquiror of Indue) and Japanese software plays (eWeLL, Visional), while addressing disappointments like Fiserv and accounting delays at Corporate Travel.
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Algorithmic conviction, macroeconomic posture, and risk appetite signals extracted from this quarterly letter with qualitative explanations.
Signal Matrix
Market Conviction
80%
CautiousHigh
High Conviction (80%)
High-conviction positioning: Forager is capitalizing on a major small-cap recovery but raising warning flags about macro debt and valuations, prompting them to lock in profits from peak-valuation winners like ...
Growth Outlook
50%
BearishBullish
Neutral (50%)
Market outlook remains moderate conviction: Forager is capitalizing on a major small-cap recovery but raising warning flags about macro debt and valuations, prompting them to lock in profits from peak-valuation winners like ...
Risk Appetite
40%
DefensiveAggressive
Defensive (40%)
Risk appetite posture is moderate conviction: Forager is capitalizing on a major small-cap recovery but raising warning flags about macro debt and valuations, prompting them to lock in profits from peak-valuation winners like ...
Capital Deployment
50%
De-riskingDeploying
Net Neutral (50%)
Manager actively deployed capital into high-conviction opportunities. Forager is capitalizing on a major small-cap recovery but raising warning flags about macro debt and valuations, prompting them to lock in profits from peak-valuation winners like ...
Forward Guidance
60%
CautiousExpansionary
Neutral (60%)
Forward guidance signal: Forager is capitalizing on a major small-cap recovery but raising warning flags about macro debt and valuations, prompting them to lock in profits from peak-valuation winners like ...
Language Signal
70%
BearishBullish
Bullish (70%)
Tone analysis indicates above average conviction language: Forager is capitalizing on a major small-cap recovery but raising warning flags about macro debt and valuations, prompting them to lock in profits from peak-valuation winners like ...
Perceived Risk
70%
Low RiskElevated
Elevated Risk (70%)
Perceived risk level is evaluated as above average conviction. Forager is capitalizing on a major small-cap recovery but raising warning flags about macro debt and valuations, prompting them to lock in profits from peak-valuation winners like ...
Opportunity Density
60%
ScarceAbundant
Selective (60%)
Opportunity density index indicates above average conviction actionable entry points. Forager is capitalizing on a major small-cap recovery but raising warning flags about macro debt and valuations, prompting them to lock in profits from peak-valuation winners like ...
Time Horizon
90%
Short-TermLong-Term
Decade+ (90%)
Investment time horizon reflects a high conviction orientation. Forager is capitalizing on a major small-cap recovery but raising warning flags about macro debt and valuations, prompting them to lock in profits from peak-valuation winners like ...