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| Quarter | Letter Date | Fund Name | QTD | YTD | Tickers | Themes | Quick Take |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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"A performance update for Q2 2025 highlighting lessons learned in disciplined position sizing from Computer Modelling Group, alongside a robust defense of quality recurring revenue businesses against AI disruption fears."
Seeking Winners reviews its Q2 2025 performance, delivering an 8.20% net return compared to the S&P 500's 10.94%. The letter contains deep reflections on portfolio position sizing, admitting to an aggressive sizing error in Computer Modelling Group (CMG) where the fund overestimated customer stickiness and execution predictability. Conversely, the manager outlines the strong thesis behind holding core compounders like Constellation Software, HEICO, and Gartner, which possess highly resilient and predictable recurring revenue streams. The letter also addresses and refutes the 'Vertical AI' disruption bear case, demonstrating that workflow integration and distribution moats protect incumbent vertical software leaders like AppFolio, which are successfully leveraging AI tools (e.g. Realm-X) to expand their services.
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Algorithmic conviction, macroeconomic posture, and risk appetite signals extracted from this quarterly letter with qualitative explanations.
Market Conviction
High-conviction positioning: A performance update for Q2 2025 highlighting lessons learned in disciplined position sizing from Computer Modelling Group, alongside a robust defense of quality recurring revenue ...
Growth Outlook
Market outlook remains above average conviction: A performance update for Q2 2025 highlighting lessons learned in disciplined position sizing from Computer Modelling Group, alongside a robust defense of quality recurring revenue ...
Risk Appetite
Risk appetite posture is above average conviction: A performance update for Q2 2025 highlighting lessons learned in disciplined position sizing from Computer Modelling Group, alongside a robust defense of quality recurring revenue ...
Capital Deployment
Capital deployment remained balanced with selective rotation across positions. A performance update for Q2 2025 highlighting lessons learned in disciplined position sizing from Computer Modelling Group, alongside a robust defense of quality recurring revenue ...
Forward Guidance
Forward guidance signal: A performance update for Q2 2025 highlighting lessons learned in disciplined position sizing from Computer Modelling Group, alongside a robust defense of quality recurring revenue ...
Language Signal
Tone analysis indicates above average conviction language: A performance update for Q2 2025 highlighting lessons learned in disciplined position sizing from Computer Modelling Group, alongside a robust defense of quality recurring revenue ...
Perceived Risk
Perceived risk level is evaluated as moderate conviction. A performance update for Q2 2025 highlighting lessons learned in disciplined position sizing from Computer Modelling Group, alongside a robust defense of quality recurring revenue ...
Opportunity Density
Opportunity density index indicates above average conviction actionable entry points. A performance update for Q2 2025 highlighting lessons learned in disciplined position sizing from Computer Modelling Group, alongside a robust defense of quality recurring revenue ...
Time Horizon
Investment time horizon reflects a high conviction orientation. A performance update for Q2 2025 highlighting lessons learned in disciplined position sizing from Computer Modelling Group, alongside a robust defense of quality recurring revenue ...
