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| Quarter | Letter Date | Fund Name | QTD | YTD | Tickers | Themes | Quick Take |
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"PM Harris Kupperman executed a portfolio 'hard reboot' in May, slashing exposure to sit on 40% cash. He remains highly bearish on broader equities, warning of an inevitable economic crisis while waiting patiently for highly asymmetric setups."
Praetorian Capital Fund LLC posted a net return of 3.59% in Q2 2025. Frustrated with stagnant returns since early 2024, lead PM Harris Kupperman initiated a 'hard reboot' in May, slashing portfolio exposure to hold nearly 40% cash and taking a two-month break from trading. Kupperman reflects on how growing the fund led him to make 'institutional errors'—such as overanalyzing data, seeking consensus, and failing to jettison stagnant positions. Going forward, he plans to return to his roots of flexible, gut-driven trading. On macroeconomics, Kupperman is highly bearish, warning of an inevitable economic crisis ('Project Zimbabwe') and anticipating multiple compression and currency devaluation. The fund remains highly liquid and positioned in precious metals, emerging markets, and St. Joe (JOE), while waiting for obvious market opportunities.
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Algorithmic conviction, macroeconomic posture, and risk appetite signals extracted from this quarterly letter with qualitative explanations.
Market Conviction
High-conviction positioning: PM Harris Kupperman executed a portfolio 'hard reboot' in May, slashing exposure to sit on 40% cash. He remains highly bearish on broader equities, warning of an inevitable economi...
Growth Outlook
Market outlook remains very low conviction: PM Harris Kupperman executed a portfolio 'hard reboot' in May, slashing exposure to sit on 40% cash. He remains highly bearish on broader equities, warning of an inevitable economi...
Risk Appetite
Risk appetite posture is low conviction: PM Harris Kupperman executed a portfolio 'hard reboot' in May, slashing exposure to sit on 40% cash. He remains highly bearish on broader equities, warning of an inevitable economi...
Capital Deployment
Capital deployment remained balanced with selective rotation across positions. PM Harris Kupperman executed a portfolio 'hard reboot' in May, slashing exposure to sit on 40% cash. He remains highly bearish on broader equities, warning of an inevitable economi...
Forward Guidance
Forward guidance signal: PM Harris Kupperman executed a portfolio 'hard reboot' in May, slashing exposure to sit on 40% cash. He remains highly bearish on broader equities, warning of an inevitable economi...
Language Signal
Tone analysis indicates high conviction language: PM Harris Kupperman executed a portfolio 'hard reboot' in May, slashing exposure to sit on 40% cash. He remains highly bearish on broader equities, warning of an inevitable economi...
Perceived Risk
Perceived risk level is evaluated as high conviction. PM Harris Kupperman executed a portfolio 'hard reboot' in May, slashing exposure to sit on 40% cash. He remains highly bearish on broader equities, warning of an inevitable economi...
Opportunity Density
Opportunity density index indicates low conviction actionable entry points. PM Harris Kupperman executed a portfolio 'hard reboot' in May, slashing exposure to sit on 40% cash. He remains highly bearish on broader equities, warning of an inevitable economi...
Time Horizon
Investment time horizon reflects a above average conviction orientation. PM Harris Kupperman executed a portfolio 'hard reboot' in May, slashing exposure to sit on 40% cash. He remains highly bearish on broader equities, warning of an inevitable economi...
