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| Quarter | Letter Date | Fund Name | QTD | YTD | Tickers | Themes | Quick Take |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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"Bristlemoon underperformed due to defensive tariff positioning and concentrated portfolio volatility, but management expresses highest conviction ever in current holdings. New positions in APi Group, Salesforce, and UnitedHealth offer compelling risk-adjusted returns."
Bristlemoon Global Fund returned -0.3% in Q2 2025, underperforming due to defensive positioning around tariff risks and concentrated portfolio volatility. The fund was too slow redeploying cash when Trump announced a 90-day tariff pause, missing the subsequent equity rally. Key contributors included Uber, PAR Technology, and APi Group, while AppLovin and Hemnet detracted. The manager initiated three new positions: APi Group (fire safety services with resilient recurring revenue), Salesforce (positioned for agentic AI opportunity through data advantage), and UnitedHealth (asymmetric opportunity after 50% drawdown from Medicare Advantage challenges). Despite near-term headwinds, the team expresses highest conviction ever in the portfolio composition. The fund maintains 97.9% long exposure with 16 positions, continuing gradual deployment into idiosyncratic opportunities with 12-18 month catalysts. Management expects supportive equity environment given Trump's shift toward deficit spending, while avoiding directional market calls and momentum chasing at all-time highs.
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Algorithmic conviction, macroeconomic posture, and risk appetite signals extracted from this quarterly letter with qualitative explanations.
Market Conviction
Manager states 'most excited about the Fund's portfolio of stocks that we have ever been' with concentrated 16-position portfolio. Detailed analysis of three new positions with specific sizing and thesis. High conviction despite acknowledging near-term volatility.
Growth Outlook
Manager acknowledges supportive environment from Trump's deficit spending shift and expects equity-friendly conditions, but expresses caution about all-time highs and momentum stocks. Balanced view with mild constructive bias.
Risk Appetite
Fund maintains high 97.9% long exposure but was defensively positioned with cash and puts during quarter. Manager is gradually deploying but explicitly avoiding momentum chasing, showing selective risk appetite.
Capital Deployment
Fund held elevated cash and index puts during quarter and was 'too slow putting cash to work' when markets turned. Gradual deployment mentioned but net effect was defensive positioning reducing deployment.
Forward Guidance
Manager plans to continue gradual deployment into idiosyncratic opportunities with 12-18 month catalysts. Selective adding bias with focus on specific risk-adjusted returns rather than broad market exposure.
Language Signal
Language includes opportunity terms like 'attractive', 'compelling', and 'excited about portfolio' but balanced with risk language around volatility, underperformance, and market caution. Slightly more constructive than bearish overall.
Perceived Risk
Manager acknowledges concentrated portfolio volatility, tariff risks, and market enthusiasm at all-time highs. Discusses left-tail risks and potential for underperformance periods. Moderate risk awareness without systemic alarm.
Opportunity Density
Manager sees 'attractive opportunities' and initiated three new positions during quarter. References 'compelling opportunity' in Hemnet and continues finding 'interesting opportunities' for incremental deployment.
Time Horizon
Manager focuses on 12-18 month horizon for catalysts and risk-adjusted returns. Discusses underwriting businesses based on 'next one to two years and beyond' with emphasis on medium-term value realization.
