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| Quarter | Letter Date | Fund Name | QTD | YTD | Tickers | Themes | Quick Take |
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"Capicraft is highly cautious on US markets and the dollar due to structural debt imbalances, preferring instead to allocate to precious metals, uranium, emerging markets, and South African government bonds."
In their Q2 2025 newsletter, Capicraft details the strong H1 performance of the Capicraft Global Creator fund (+12.15%), which successfully avoided US market volatility by allocating to precious metals, South American markets, and uranium. Conversely, the local Capicraft Compounder strategy lost 1.5% in rand terms over the half-year as the manager actively cut exposure to 'SA Inc.' stocks (banks, retailers, industrials) due to political risks surrounding the Expropriation Act and GNU stability. Despite political frustrations, the manager remains highly optimistic about South African long-term government bonds (such as the R209) and the local macroeconomic backdrop, which is supported by falling inflation and improved power grid stability. Globally, Capicraft maintains that the US dollar's status as a reserve currency is structurally declining under the weight of a negative $26.2 trillion net investment position, which will continue to drive capital into commodities and emerging markets.
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Algorithmic conviction, macroeconomic posture, and risk appetite signals extracted from this quarterly letter with qualitative explanations.
Market Conviction
High-conviction positioning: Capicraft is highly cautious on US markets and the dollar due to structural debt imbalances, preferring instead to allocate to precious metals, uranium, emerging markets, and South...
Growth Outlook
Market outlook remains moderate conviction: Capicraft is highly cautious on US markets and the dollar due to structural debt imbalances, preferring instead to allocate to precious metals, uranium, emerging markets, and South...
Risk Appetite
Risk appetite posture is moderate conviction: Capicraft is highly cautious on US markets and the dollar due to structural debt imbalances, preferring instead to allocate to precious metals, uranium, emerging markets, and South...
Capital Deployment
Manager actively deployed capital into high-conviction opportunities. Capicraft is highly cautious on US markets and the dollar due to structural debt imbalances, preferring instead to allocate to precious metals, uranium, emerging markets, and South...
Forward Guidance
Forward guidance signal: Capicraft is highly cautious on US markets and the dollar due to structural debt imbalances, preferring instead to allocate to precious metals, uranium, emerging markets, and South...
Language Signal
Tone analysis indicates above average conviction language: Capicraft is highly cautious on US markets and the dollar due to structural debt imbalances, preferring instead to allocate to precious metals, uranium, emerging markets, and South...
Perceived Risk
Perceived risk level is evaluated as above average conviction. Capicraft is highly cautious on US markets and the dollar due to structural debt imbalances, preferring instead to allocate to precious metals, uranium, emerging markets, and South...
Opportunity Density
Opportunity density index indicates above average conviction actionable entry points. Capicraft is highly cautious on US markets and the dollar due to structural debt imbalances, preferring instead to allocate to precious metals, uranium, emerging markets, and South...
Time Horizon
Investment time horizon reflects a high conviction orientation. Capicraft is highly cautious on US markets and the dollar due to structural debt imbalances, preferring instead to allocate to precious metals, uranium, emerging markets, and South...
