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| Quarter | Letter Date | Fund Name | QTD | YTD | Tickers | Themes | Quick Take |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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"Concentrated value fund navigated Q1 2026 geopolitical turmoil and AI disruption with -1.7% decline. Benefited from energy supply disruptions via LyondellBasell and defense spending via Lockheed Martin."
Alluvium's concentrated global fund declined 1.7% in Q1 2026 amid geopolitical turmoil from US-Israeli bombing of Iran and AI-driven market disruption. The fund's 20-position portfolio weathered the storm better than broad markets, with key contributors including LyondellBasell (+88.3%) benefiting from Strait of Hormuz supply disruptions and Lockheed Martin (+25.6%) gaining from defense spending. Major detractors included Universal Music (-25.2%) and H&R Block (-26.2%) caught in the SAASpocalypse following Anthropic's open source release. The managers initiated a new position in Amazon while reducing Alphabet exposure, seeking broader AI exposure at more attractive relative valuations. They increased positions in Universal Music, H&R Block, Visa and Mastercard during market weakness. Despite markets recovering to new highs post-quarter, the managers express concern about systemic risks including geopolitical volatility, AI adoption risks, and economic vulnerabilities from interconnectedness. The fund maintains 16.1% cash for flexibility while seeking opportunities among dislocated valuations.
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Algorithmic conviction, macroeconomic posture, and risk appetite signals extracted from this quarterly letter with qualitative explanations.
Market Conviction
High-conviction positioning: Concentrated value fund navigated Q1 2026 geopolitical turmoil and AI disruption with -1.7% decline. Benefited from energy supply disruptions via LyondellBasell and defense spendin...
Growth Outlook
Market outlook remains high conviction: Concentrated value fund navigated Q1 2026 geopolitical turmoil and AI disruption with -1.7% decline. Benefited from energy supply disruptions via LyondellBasell and defense spendin...
Risk Appetite
Risk appetite posture is very low conviction: Concentrated value fund navigated Q1 2026 geopolitical turmoil and AI disruption with -1.7% decline. Benefited from energy supply disruptions via LyondellBasell and defense spendin...
Capital Deployment
Manager actively deployed capital into high-conviction opportunities. Concentrated value fund navigated Q1 2026 geopolitical turmoil and AI disruption with -1.7% decline. Benefited from energy supply disruptions via LyondellBasell and defense spendin...
Forward Guidance
Forward guidance signal: Concentrated value fund navigated Q1 2026 geopolitical turmoil and AI disruption with -1.7% decline. Benefited from energy supply disruptions via LyondellBasell and defense spendin...
Language Signal
Tone analysis indicates high conviction language: Concentrated value fund navigated Q1 2026 geopolitical turmoil and AI disruption with -1.7% decline. Benefited from energy supply disruptions via LyondellBasell and defense spendin...
Perceived Risk
Perceived risk level is evaluated as moderate conviction. Concentrated value fund navigated Q1 2026 geopolitical turmoil and AI disruption with -1.7% decline. Benefited from energy supply disruptions via LyondellBasell and defense spendin...
Opportunity Density
Opportunity density index indicates moderate conviction actionable entry points. Concentrated value fund navigated Q1 2026 geopolitical turmoil and AI disruption with -1.7% decline. Benefited from energy supply disruptions via LyondellBasell and defense spendin...
Time Horizon
Investment time horizon reflects a moderate conviction orientation. Concentrated value fund navigated Q1 2026 geopolitical turmoil and AI disruption with -1.7% decline. Benefited from energy supply disruptions via LyondellBasell and defense spendin...
