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| Quarter | Letter Date | Fund Name | QTD | YTD | Tickers | Themes | Quick Take |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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"Markets ended easy street in Q1 2026 as Iranian war drove oil prices up 76%, creating supply disruptions and recession risks."
MacNicol & Associates Asset Management views Q1 2026 as marking the end of easy street for markets, with investor confidence meeting significant resistance. The S&P 500 fell 4.6% while the Nasdaq entered correction territory, driven primarily by the Iranian war disrupting oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz. Oil prices surged dramatically with WTI rising 76% to above $100, creating supply chain disruptions and inflation concerns that historically precede recessions. The firm emphasizes defensive positioning, rotating toward energy, utilities, and consumer staples while moving away from narrow technology leadership. Gold remained supported by central bank diversification despite volatility, while private credit showed concerning strain with redemption limitations. Canada outperformed with the TSX up 3.3%, benefiting from commodity exposure. The outlook focuses on monitoring oil price stability and geopolitical developments, with particular concern about emerging stagflation risks that could challenge traditional stock-bond portfolio approaches. The firm maintains portfolio insurance against Black Swan events while actively managing allocations based on changing conditions.
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