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| Quarter | Letter Date | Fund Name | QTD | YTD | Tickers | Themes | Quick Take |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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"Carmignac Patrimoine outperformed in Q3 2025 driven by AI technology exposure and gold miners. The fund expects continued global growth but warns of inflation resurgence from wages and tariffs."
Carmignac Patrimoine delivered strong Q3 2025 performance of +3.72%, outperforming its reference indicator by 70 basis points, driven by targeted technology sector exposure and gold mining positions. The fund benefited from the ongoing AI enthusiasm, with key contributors including Alphabet, Nvidia, Arista Networks, and TSMC across the technology value chain. Gold miners continued to perform as investors and central banks diversified away from the dollar amid declining US institutional credibility. Fixed income performance was supported by inflation-linked strategies and carry trades. Looking forward, the managers expect resilient global growth supported by accommodative monetary policy and fiscal stimulus, but identify resurgent inflation as the primary risk. The fund maintains conviction in equity selection focusing on AI companies, industrial firms positioned on electrification and aeronautics themes, and financials with strong fundamentals. Portfolio protection includes gold miners, yen positions, and equity hedges, while maintaining negative duration and inflation-linked exposure anticipating higher rates driven by wage growth, tariffs, and trade dynamics.
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Algorithmic conviction, macroeconomic posture, and risk appetite signals extracted from this quarterly letter with qualitative explanations.
Market Conviction
The managers demonstrate strong confidence in their macro thesis and tactical adjustments, including active currency, rate, and hedging strategies that drove outperformance.
Growth Outlook
They express a cautious to bearish outlook, particularly for U.S. assets facing stagflationary pressures, ongoing trade wars, and heightened market volatility.
Risk Appetite
The portfolio has adopted a distinctly defensive posture, reducing net equity exposure to around 25% and increasing tail risk protection via put options, VIX exposure, and credit default hedges.
Capital Deployment
The fund actively took profits on equity and financial credit holdings to build up hedges and reduce directional market exposure.
Forward Guidance
Forward guidance emphasizes elevated market volatility, growth headwinds from tariffs, and high inflation risks, though selective equity and duration opportunities remain.
Language Signal
The tone is clear, analytical, and authoritative, articulating clear strategic choices and successful risk mitigation throughout a turbulent quarter.
Perceived Risk
The managers highlight a high-risk macro environment marked by U.S. stagflation threats, geopolitical trade conflicts, and significant equity and credit market volatility.
Opportunity Density
Opportunities are viewed as narrow and highly selective, restricted to specific non-U.S. equities, European infrastructure plays, real rates, and selective tech pullbacks.
Time Horizon
While navigating tactical short-term market turbulence over the coming weeks, the team maintains a balanced perspective tied to medium-term structural regime shifts.
