Browse the world's most comprehensive database of hedge fund investor letters, sorted by recent quarter. Access primary source research from leading institutional managers.
| Quarter | Letter Date | Fund Name | QTD | YTD | Tickers | Themes | Quick Take |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Buyside Digest is not affiliated with, and does not endorse, Recurve Capital. This analysis is provided for institutional research purposes only and is not investment advice.
"Recurve Capital returned -13% net in Q1 2025 amid tariff-driven volatility, with concentrated exposure led by 43.5% Carvana position. Fund opportunistically added to RH during selloff, seeing $50+ EPS potential despite tariff headwinds."
Recurve Capital Partners returned -13% net in Q1 2025, underperforming the S&P 500's -4.6% return amid significant market volatility driven by Trump administration tariff policies. The portfolio consists of nine positions led by Carvana at 43.5%, with new additions e.l.f. Beauty and an undisclosed Company A. The fund faces direct tariff exposure of less than 20% of assets, primarily through RH and ELF's China and Vietnam supply chains. Manager Aaron Chan emphasizes the fund's approach of remaining opportunistic during uncertainty, exemplified by adding to RH when it traded down to $150 after tariff announcements, seeing potential for over $50 per share earnings power. Cogent Communications, despite its utility-like business model, has underperformed due to slower-than-expected wavelength network revenue ramp, though the growth platform is now built. The fund fully exited Wayfair after four years, concluding it lacks sufficient differentiation to be a secular winner. Chan maintains focus on medium and long-term performance optimization while navigating elevated macro uncertainty.
Sign in or create a free account to unlock full commentary, extracted equity pitches, and direct outbound manager source links with your 3 quarterly credits.
Algorithmic conviction, macroeconomic posture, and risk appetite signals extracted from this quarterly letter with qualitative explanations.
Market Conviction
The manager demonstrates high conviction through concentrated positions (43.5% in Carvana), detailed fundamental analysis, and willingness to add to positions during volatility. Specific price targets and earnings estimates for holdings like RH show strong conviction in investment thesis.
Growth Outlook
The manager acknowledges significant market challenges including fear, uncertainty, and volatility from Trump's tariff policies, but maintains that equity markets will not suffer permanent damage since unilateral decisions can be reversed. The outlook is cautious but not deeply pessimistic.
Risk Appetite
Despite the challenging environment, the fund is taking an opportunistic approach by adding to positions like RH during selloffs and maintaining concentrated positions. The manager explicitly states their tactical orientation is to play offense while others play defense.
Capital Deployment
The fund has been selectively deploying capital by adding two new positions (e.l.f. Beauty and Company A) and opportunistically adding to RH during the selloff. However, overall activity appears measured rather than aggressive, with some rebalancing and the full exit of Wayfair.
Forward Guidance
The manager expresses confidence in continuing to optimize the portfolio and fill the investment pipeline, with specific catalysts identified for holdings like Cogent. However, guidance is tempered by acknowledgment of ongoing uncertainty.
Language Signal
Language contains balanced mix of risk-focused terms (fear, uncertainty, volatility, impairment) and opportunity-focused terms (opportunistic, pounced, excited, attractive). The net balance is slightly negative but not strongly bearish.
Perceived Risk
The manager extensively discusses elevated risks including tariff policy uncertainty, potential earnings impairments, supply chain disruptions, and the unprecedented nature of unilateral policy changes. Risk perception is clearly elevated though not at maximum levels.
Opportunity Density
The manager sees selective opportunities arising from fear-based dislocations, with specific examples like RH trading at attractive valuations. However, opportunities appear more selective than abundant, with only two new positions added since 2023.
Time Horizon
The strategy explicitly focuses on multi-year holding periods and long-term earnings growth, with references to medium and long-term performance optimization. The patient approach to building positions and multi-year earnings power estimates demonstrate a long-term orientation.
