Institutional ticker directory tracking stock mentions, long/short ideas, and high-conviction pitches extracted from quarterly hedge fund letters.
| Ticker | Company | Sector | Industry | Pitches | Stance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fund / Manager | Thesis Excerpt | Stance | Period / Date | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Optimist Fund Jordan McNamee | “Carvana — Retail units sold continued to grow at a blistering ~40% year-over-year rate. We visited the Cleveland reconditioning center during the quarter and came aw...” | NEUTRAL | Q2 2026 Jul 30, 2026 | View Pitch |
Recurve Capital Aaron Chan | “Carvana is -22% YTD through June 30th and has driven about 80% of our negative performance YTD. An otherwise slightly negative performance YTD looks quite a bit worse because our most important position is underperforming the indices by over 3,000 bps in 1H 2026. For Carvana, we generated significant positive returns when cash flow flipped from materially negative (2021, 2022) to materially positive (2023, 2024, 2025). Today in 2026, owner earnings are continuing to grow substantially. We can see expectations for 2026 rising from $600M in early 2023 to roughly $3B today. Because it was a highly levered situation at that time, the stock rose from <$2 in early 2023 to now ~$65, a ~33x return on a 5x increase in expectations. Looking forward, we expect EBITDA (as a proxy for owner earnings) to roughly 3x in the next 3 years. All else equal, we would expect the stock to roughly 3x as well if the multiple were to remain constant. Currently, the stock trades at 24.5x 2026 EBITDA and 18.6x consensus 2027 EBITDA. It is cheaper than those multiples on our above-consensus estimates and becomes even cheaper over time. These valuations are not expensive in relation to Carvana's +40% retail unit growth today and our view of how sustainable high growth rates are over the medium- and long-term. The multiple 3 years from now will depend on what the growth outlook is from that point forward, but I feel comfortable that we won't suffer from material multiple compression. We don't need the multiple to rise to make our returns. When most companies experience a deceleration from 40% to 25% we would expect the multiple to compress, but in this case we do not expect much from current levels given the recent underperformance – especially as more investors come to appreciate the earnings power and stability of the business. 25% growth with a long remaining runway is still incredibly strong and by then Carvana should be recognized as the juggernaut in the industry, similar to Amazon in e-commerce today. The multiple should remain healthy as it shifts from having major growth premium today to having a mix of growth and quality premiums in the future. Carvana likely will sell more than 800k units in 2026 and based on alternative data, it will sell ~200k units in Q2. At year-end 2024, consensus estimates called for 623k units in 2026. At year-end 2025, consensus was at 745k units. Today, consensus is at 797k units. This is what we want to see – estimates going higher. Rising estimates helped generate significant performance for Carvana in 2025. Even in 2026, estimates have been revised up across the year. And yet, the stock is down about -22% YTD. For us to generate the returns I expect out of Carvana, we need the company to grow faster-than-expected for at least several more years. Across the first half of 2026, Carvana has maintained about a 40% y/y growth rate, but the pace of growth has varied from 50%+ to flat (due to winter storms in Jan/Feb). The week-to-week variance of growth has caused meaningful volatility. Carvana experienced reconditioning issues across a handful of sites in 2H 2025 which caused a gross profit miss in Q4 results. These issues were caused by Carvana's site expansion which caused a redistribution of key local talent, combined with the company not yet deploying systems to properly monitor site-by-site variance during that process. The issues in 2H 2025 pushed the company to assess the drivers of underperformance and to implement new internal systems that are monitored closely from centralized dashboards. Previously, the company had relied heavily on local site managers to run a solid operation. Now, the company is centralizing and automating significant components of those processes. With those systems now in the process of being deployed across the network of reconditioning centers, different sites are at different levels of efficiency. If a given site is earlier in the deployment process (thereby producing lower-margin units), Carvana is not eager to ramp up volume yet. They keep volumes relatively lower at those sites until the expected improvements are observed – and then they will push more volume to it. This is what a rational owner would do – delay ramping up when they are only a few weeks away from more profitable units being produced. If another site has the full suite of new internal systems and the staff is fully trained on it, they will push that site to keep ramping. Carvana's dozens of reconditioning sites are at various stages of deployment, each with its unique cadence of slowing down and speeding up around the migration to new processes and systems. This is not just pushing software updates – it requires training and onboarding for the many thousands of workers across the network. A bad weekly comp in alternative data can be generated from a handful of key sites slowing down for a few weeks while new systems are deployed, but that is nothing to be concerned about. In summary, weekly sales and productivity volatility during a period of process improvements that we know are underway should not be surprising. I am encouraged that Carvana's inventory appears to have reaccelerated from the end of Q1 to the end of Q2, resulting in y/y inventory growth of ~40% (vs. Q1 2026 inventory growth of ~25%), while retail sales grew a touch under 40% y/y based on our data sources. This reacceleration of inventory growth suggests the majority of Carvana's reconditioning centers have improved enough for Carvana to return to production growth mode in aggregate, with most of that growth showing up in the last half of the quarter. We read the production reacceleration itself as the encouraging signal: Carvana held volume back at various sites until they were efficient and profitable enough to scale. Their willingness to ramp tells us those sites have cleared that bar. Units produced in the second half of Q2 (when the ramp occurred) will be sold predominantly in Q3, so the gross profit benefit should be observable in the coming quarters. We do not expect perfection from Carvana or any of our companies, but we expect over time they will be able to course-correct as necessary to generate a favorable path to the long-term view we have. Carvana has proven its ability to do this (particularly in the 2023/2024 turnaround) and has earned credibility on this front. The company is always upgrading its systems and processes, as we should expect it to. That doesn't mean it won't have a bad quarter here or there along this long-term journey – especially when it is scaling such an operationally intensive, vertically-integrated business while growing ~40%. I did not expect Carvana to be down -22% YTD while estimates rose across the year, but the volatility in weekly data caused the multiple to compress – a reminder that simply growing the numbers doesn't translate one-for-one into equity appreciation in the short term.” | BULL | Q2 2026 Jul 2, 2026 | View Pitch |
Optimist Fund Jordan McNamee | “Carvana finished the year with another strong quarter. EBITDA came in modestly below our expectations, driven by elevated costs at a handful of reconditioning centers, but this does not change our vie” | BULL | Q1 2026 May 12, 2026 | View Pitch |
Saga Partners Joe Frankenfield | “The manager compares the current extreme skepticism surrounding The Trade Desk to his previous experience with Carvana in 2022, when deteriorating market sentiment masked robust long-term value. He maintains that his constructive long-term view of Carvana's core value drivers has remained unchanged through its dramatic price fluctuations.” | BULL | Q1 2026 Apr 17, 2026 | View Pitch |
Carillon Eagle Mid Cap Growth Fund Eric Mintz, Christopher Sassouni, David Cavanaugh | “Carvana is an online used car retailer that enables customers to buy, sell, and finance vehicles through a fully digital platform. The stock sold off on quarterly results. While new units and revenue ” | BULL | Q1 2026 Apr 15, 2026 | View Pitch |
Recurve Capital Aaron Chan | “The manager defends a massive position in Carvana, noting that the used car market is historically stable and resilient, declining only marginally during major economic shocks. With the business experiencing nearly 40% year-over-year growth despite severe weather, its valuation at less than 15x 2027 EBITDA presents a highly attractive entry point where buying is preferable to selling.” | BULL | Q1 2026 Apr 1, 2026 | View Pitch |
Star Magnolia Capital Shinya Deguchi | “Carvana possesses a structurally superior business model characterized by higher gross margins compared to traditional peers. Its ultimate success is driven by the strength and dedication of its leadership, which allowed the company to emerge stronger from severe market turbulence.” | BULL | Q4 2025 Jan 30, 2026 | View Pitch |
Artisan Mid Cap Fund Matt Kamm, Jason White, Jim Hamel, Angela Wu, Jay Warner | “Carvana is one of the largest used car retailers in the US and operates a national e-commerce platform that provides broader selection, lower costs and a more convenient customer experience than traditional dealerships. We view the company as a differentiated, vertically integrated operator with strong advantages in sourcing, logistics, fulfillment and financing that create meaningful barriers to entry. With a small share of a large market, we believe Carvana has a long runway for growth as it scales nationally and captures efficiencies from its acquisition of ADESA's US physical auction business, which adds a national network of wholesale vehicle auction facilities and supports improved unit economics. BSD Analysis: Carvana is a case study in how fast a business can go from market darling to near-death — and then claw its way back. Management has executed a brutal self-help plan, slashing costs, shrinking inventory risk, and restoring unit economics. The online used-car model still resonates with consumers despite macro headwinds. Debt remains heavy, making discipline non-negotiable. The business now has real operating leverage if volumes stabilize. But this is not a clean compounder — it's a leveraged recovery story. Any stumble gets punished immediately. If execution holds, equity upside is real. This is high-risk, high-torque, no-margin-for-error investing.” | BULL | Q4 2025 Jan 15, 2026 | View Pitch |
Tapasya Investment Fund Pratik Kodial | “Carvana continues to exceed execution expectations, successfully gaining market share and delivering profitable revenue growth. The recent surge in December was largely attributed to its inclusion in the S&P 500, which also validates our initial investment thesis. Given the significant increase in its valuation, I may look to trim this position in 2026. This potential decision would be driven by seizing higher-return opportunities elsewhere (opportunity cost), rather than a lack of confidence in the company or its management team. BSD Analysis: Carvana is a leveraged bet on used-car prices, credit availability, and refinancing access. The platform works when volumes rise and capital markets cooperate. Fixed costs turn quickly from leverage to liability. Recent survival doesn't equal durability. The business has little pricing power against consumers or lenders. The bull case is normalized margins and balance-sheet relief. The bear case is macro stress exposing structural fragility. Carvana trades on capital market sentiment more than retail fundamentals.” | BULL | Q4 2025 Jan 6, 2026 | View Pitch |
Tapasya Investment Fund Pratik Kodial | “Carvana continues to exceed execution expectations, successfully gaining market share and delivering profitable revenue growth. The recent surge in December was largely attributed to its inclusion in the S&P 500, which also validates our initial investment thesis. Given the significant increase in its valuation, I may look to trim this position in 2026. This potential decision would be driven by seizing higher-return opportunities elsewhere (opportunity cost), rather than a lack of confidence in the company or its management team. BSD Analysis: Carvana is a leveraged bet on used-car prices, credit availability, and refinancing access. The platform works when volumes rise and capital markets cooperate. Fixed costs turn quickly from leverage to liability. Recent survival doesn't equal durability. The business has little pricing power against consumers or lenders. The bull case is normalized margins and balance-sheet relief. The bear case is macro stress exposing structural fragility. Carvana trades on capital market sentiment more than retail fundamentals.” | BULL | Q4 2025 Jan 6, 2026 | View Pitch |
Spyglass Capital Management Portfolio Manager | “The digital vehicle retailer's vertically integrated infrastructure and proprietary logistics network enable efficient, localized operations. Achieving seven consecutive quarters of GAAP profitability confirms the economic viability of its consumer-friendly, scalable business model.” | BULL | Q4 2025 Dec 31, 2025 | View Pitch |
City Different Investments - Global Equity Vinson Walden | “Our top performer was Carvana (CVNA), a vertically integrated e-commerce platform that buys, reconditions, transports, finances, and sells used cars across the United States. By eliminating traditional physical dealerships (and associated costs), Carvana has become a low-cost provider of used vehicles. Buyers enjoy a "haggle-free" experience and the company's vast nationwide inventory. We were attracted to Carvana as an investment for many reasons, not least its numerous competitive advantages in the enormous used-car industry. With a current market share of less than 2%, Carvana appears to have a long runway of profitable growth ahead. BSD Analysis: Carvana enters the first quarter of 2026 with significant momentum, recently reporting fiscal 2025 results that showcased a stunning 98% year-over-year gain in EPS. The company's "transparency-led turnaround" is yieldiing fruit, as analysts highlight its ability to achieve greater profitability even as top-line growth moderates. Market share expansion is a key pillar for 2026, with consumer acceptance of online car buying increasing 1.5-fold in the latter half of 2025, potentially adding up to 4 million units to Carvana's addressable market. Despite a seasonal sequential revenue dip typical of the first quarter, the firm's disciplined focus on GPU (Gross Profit per Unit) and operational efficiency has led to a consensus "Buy" rating. For investors, Carvana represents a high-conviction recovery story that is successfully transitioning from a high-growth disruptor to a structurally profitable industry leader.” | BULL | Q4 2025 Dec 31, 2025 | View Pitch |
Optimist Fund Jordan McNamee | “Carvana – Carvana's strong financial trajectory continues reporting record third-quarter results, with 155,941 retail cars sold (+~44% YoY) and total revenue of ~$5.65 billion (+~55% YoY), both all-time quarterly highs. The company generated adjusted EBITDA of ~$637 million +~50%, with an adjusted EBITDA margin of ~11.3%, well above typical industry profitability levels. Carvana remains a top 5 holding. BSD Analysis: Carvana has executed one of the most remarkable operational turnarounds in the retail sector, moving from liquidity concerns to becoming a highly profitable leader in the used vehicle market. The company's focus on unit economics and operational efficiency has led to record-breaking gross profit per unit, setting a new benchmark for the industry. Retail unit sales are projected to reach significant new highs in 2026 as the company leverages its unique inspection and reconditioning centers to outpace traditional dealers. While the stock remains volatile and sensitive to interest rate environments, Carvana's massive infrastructure and superior digital customer experience create a formidable competitive moat. The company is also benefiting from a favorable shift in consumer perception, with more buyers opting for the convenience of its online model over traditional showrooms. For investors, Carvana represents a high-beta play on the continued digitization of the automotive industry.” | BULL | Q4 2025 Dec 31, 2025 | View Pitch |
Optimist Fund Jordan McNamee | “Carvana continues to deliver strong performance, posting record highs across nearly every key financial metric. Retail units sold rose 41% year over year to 143,280 vehicles — the highest in company history — while total revenue increased 42% to $4.84 billion. Adjusted EBITDA reached $601 million, good for a 12.4% margin, more than 2x industry average profitability. Management expects retail unit growth to continue sequentially and raised its full-year 2025 outlook for adjusted EBITDA to between $2.0 billion and $2.2 billion, up from $1.38 billion in 2024. Longer term, the company continues to target 3 million annual retail units with a roughly 13.5% adjusted EBITDA margin. BSD Analysis: The fund identifies Carvana as a high-conviction turnaround with accelerating profitability and market share gains in digital auto retail. With EBITDA margins over twice the sector average and improving asset turnover, Carvana's capital-light logistics and scale efficiencies offer a durable competitive moat. Trading near 10x forward EBITDA with strong FCF inflection, continued deleveraging and operational discipline should drive multiple expansion.” | BULL | Q3 2025 Oct 21, 2025 | View Pitch |
Recurve Capital Aaron Chan | “Carvana remains our largest position by far, and I continue to be amazed by the company's execution – especially in contrast to others in the industry. Carmax reported disappointing results in late September, with same-store units declining -6.3% y/y. The company blamed its poor performance on customer pull forward and hangover dynamics around the auto tariff announcements earlier in the year. These growth issues were compounded by poor 2022-2023 vintage loan performance which required additional loss provisioning and further hurt earnings. In contrast, we observe Carvana posting >45% y/y growth in the September quarter, exiting the quarter above +50% unit growth. If the industry is suffering from headwinds, Carvana does not appear to be feeling them. The company is adding variable roles in reconditioning and local delivery (“Market Operations”) at a blistering pace, with openings for such roles up 60% over the last 6 months. Since Carvana's unit production volumes are constrained by the labor force powering its fixed infrastructure assets, changes in variable roles often signal the company's growth intentions months before that growth shows up in third-party data. It's rare to find companies with such a powerful customer response and I expect to see continued disruptive growth for many years to come. BSD Analysis: Carvana pulled off one of the most improbable balance-sheet turnarounds in recent memory, slashing costs, squeezing gross profit, and stabilizing liquidity. Unit economics have improved dramatically as the company focuses on profitable volume instead of reckless expansion. Bears still don't trust the story — rightfully — but the operating data keeps getting better. The equity remains a high-torque play on execution. If Carvana strings together consistent profitability, the multiple has room to explode higher. This is a high-wire act, but it's no longer a death spiral. High risk, high torque, high narrative velocity.” | BULL | Q3 2025 Sep 30, 2025 | View Pitch |
Brown Advisors Mid-Cap Growth strategy Portfolio Manager | “Carvana (CVNA) is one of the fastest-growing online used car retailers. The company continues to outpace peers with revenue growth above 40% and targets 20–40% annual growth over the next five years. With expanded reconditioning capacity, we expect improving profitability and a widening competitive advantage as the business scales. BSD Analysis: Carvana's turnaround remains one of the most dramatic in consumer internet, with the company achieving profitability through cost discipline, logistics efficiency, and refined inventory strategy. Unit economics have improved sharply, and SG&A leverage is finally visible after years of aggressive growth. While volumes remain sensitive to used-car affordability, Carvana's operational moat — reconditioning scale, logistics backbone, and digital brand equity — is strengthening. Debt concerns have eased meaningfully as cash generation improves and maturities are better managed. The stock is volatile, but the business is now structurally stronger than the market assumed during the downturn. With improved margins and a more sustainable growth algorithm, Carvana stands out as a credible recovery-to-compounder story.” | BULL | Q3 2025 Sep 30, 2025 | View Pitch |
Optimist Fund Jordan McNamee | “Carvana posted another exceptional quarter, growing retail units by 46%, revenue by 38%, and achieving an all-time high adjusted EBITDA margin of 11.5%. Management reiterated their outlook for continued rapid growth and margin expansion, and most notably, introduced a bold new long-term target: 3 million annual retail units at a 13.5% EBITDA margin within 5–10 years. Knowing this team, our bet is they're aiming for the low end of that range—which would imply over 40% annualized unit growth, more than 5% above our prior expectations. We remain very encouraged by Carvana's trajectory and continue to view it as a compelling 5-year investment opportunity. BSD Analysis: Carvana has executed one of the most improbable corporate revivals of the past decade, transitioning from a bankruptcy candidate to a margin-expanding e-commerce dealer. The debt restructuring gave it room to breathe, and cost discipline reshaped the financial model. Its logistics footprint remains a competitive advantage in a notoriously inefficient industry. Used-car supply remains tighter than expected, benefiting Carvana's marketplace dynamics. Bears still cling to the old narrative, but operating trends keep smashing those assumptions. This is still a volatile, leveraged story — but the existential risk has dramatically faded. Carvana now plays offense, not survival.” | BULL | Q2 2025 Jul 18, 2025 | View Pitch |
Recurve Capital Aaron Chan | “Followers of Recurve know that we have had a position in Carvana for many years. It has become our largest position by far and every decision not to sell despite its elevated concentration has been highly accretive to our performance. It's also the position that has caused me to lose more sleep and learn more about myself as an investor than any other company in my 20+ year career. Carvana offers a useful canvas to explore how I apply a decision tree framework to help navigate investment decisions. In 2022, when the stock declined –99%, the market believed bankruptcy was a foregone conclusion… In 2023, Carvana started turning around its business… In 2024 and early 2025, Carvana began to stabilize its industry-leading unit economics while returning to growth rates that far exceeded analysts' expectations… As we look forward, Carvana has a proven best-in-class business model and is now performing solidly in the upper half of the tree. We expect the tree to keep growing taller… The combination of removing the bottom branches while not sacrificing the growth of new upper branches is what allows us to hold an extraordinarily large position in Carvana. BSD Analysis: Carvana executed one of the wildest operational turnarounds in recent memory, going from near bankruptcy to a structurally profitable used-car marketplace. Its restructured debt load and improved unit economics give it real staying power. The shift to profitability came from tighter inventory discipline, lower SG&A, and smarter pricing algorithms. Carvana's brand and online-first experience still resonate with consumers. Macro volatility in used cars remains a major swing factor. If management maintains discipline, the equity retains enormous torque. Still risky, but now a plausible long-term platform instead of a meme stock.” | BULL | Q2 2025 Jul 14, 2025 | View Pitch |
ClearBridge Mid Cap Growth Strategy Brian Angerame, Jeffrey Bailin, Aram Green, Matthew Lilling | “We re-established a position in Carvana, the leading online used vehicle retailer. Carvana has emerged from a challenging restructuring period with a return to strong growth, record profitability that leads the legacy auto retail sector, and a clear long-term vision to disrupt the large and highly fragmented auto market. The company is targeting a dramatic scale-up from approximately 500,000 annual car sales today to three million over the next five to 10 years, leveraging its existing infrastructure and the Adesa acquisition to support this expansion. BSD Analysis: Carvana Co. (CVNA) Carvana is a high-conviction, deeply volatile turnaround that is successfully proving the unit economics of its digitized used-car retail model. The investment thesis is a bet that the company has passed the point of financial distress and is now transitioning to a profitable growth phase, leveraging its proprietary last-mile logistics and massive inventory infrastructure. The stock's extreme sensitivity to used car prices and debt structure makes it a dangerous speculation, but the upside lies in achieving full scale efficiency, which promises best-in-class cost per unit and explosive Free Cash Flow generation as the business normalizes.” | BULL | Q2 2025 Jun 30, 2025 | View Pitch |
Recurve Capital Aaron Chan | “Carvana has successfully restructured its operational efficiency, yielding industry-leading unit economics and expanding retail market share despite elevated consumer financing costs. With modest market share and strong cash flow generation, the company can control its growth rate while reducing debt and capital costs.” | BULL | Q2 2024 Jun 30, 2024 | View Pitch |
Bronte Capital Amalthea Fund John Hempton | “Carvana was a profitable short position as the stock declined from over $200 to $10, but a residual single-basis-point short position suffered as the stock rallied sharply above $60. The manager believes equity stub leverage makes shorting at depressed levels risky, though bankruptcy remains the most probable long-term outcome.” | BEAR | Q4 2023 Dec 31, 2023 | View Pitch |
Each excerpt above is the manager's commentary on this ticker specifically. The full letter has the rest of their portfolio thinking, risk discussion, and broader institutional context.