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| Quarter | Letter Date | Fund Name | QTD | YTD | Tickers | Themes | Quick Take |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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"Trump's tariff shock popped the Everything Bubble, triggering sovereign debt crisis dynamics with simultaneous stock, bond, and dollar declines. Gold surged 60% as investors fled to sound money, while the fund's precious metals focus delivered 20.7% returns."
The EMA GARP Fund returned 20.7% in Q1 2025 as the Everything Bubble began bursting following Trump's aggressive tariff announcements. The fund's gold and precious metals focus proved prescient as gold surged 60% over 12 months to $3,300 per ounce while traditional markets declined sharply. The S&P 500 fell 21% peak-to-trough as tariff policies triggered recession fears in the most overleveraged market since 1929. Unprecedented conditions emerged with simultaneous declines in stocks, bonds, and the dollar - hallmarks of sovereign debt crisis. The US dollar depreciated 10% in three months while Treasury yields spiked 75 basis points, forcing a 90-day tariff suspension. With fiscal deficits running at $2.6 trillion annually and the Fed trapped by debt dynamics, monetary accommodation appears inevitable. Gold miners remain significantly undervalued despite record 56% profit margins, while physical gold demand from central banks creates increasingly tight market conditions reminiscent of the 1968 London Gold Pool collapse.
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Algorithmic conviction, macroeconomic posture, and risk appetite signals extracted from this quarterly letter with qualitative explanations.
Market Conviction
Very high conviction expressed through concentrated positioning, detailed thesis development, and strong language about gold's potential. Manager provides specific price targets ($12,000 gold), historical analogies, and mathematical justifications for positioning with minimal hedging language.
Growth Outlook
Manager expresses strong pessimism about market environment, describing it as the most overvalued and leveraged since 1929, with Everything Bubble bursting and recession being priced in. References to sovereign debt crisis and fragile global economy indicate deeply negative market outlook.
Risk Appetite
While defensive in traditional assets, manager maintains aggressive positioning in gold, gold miners, and Bitcoin. Portfolio concentrated in alternative assets with expectation of significant upside, showing selective risk-taking in preferred themes despite overall defensive stance.
Capital Deployment
Limited deployment activity mentioned. Manager reduced Bitcoin position at $100,000+ but maintains heavy weighting in gold miners. No significant cash level changes or aggressive scaling discussed, suggesting relatively stable positioning.
Forward Guidance
Manager expects next 24 months to be very positive for portfolio and believes digits in accounts will grow meaningfully. Clear bullish bias for gold and mining positions with expectation Fed accommodation will benefit holdings, though cautious about broader market.
Language Signal
Language heavily weighted toward risk terminology including bubble bursting, sovereign debt crisis, policy error, and systemic fragility. However, balanced by opportunity language around gold, undervaluation, and portfolio positioning for gains.
Perceived Risk
Extremely high perceived risk with references to most overleveraged market since 1929, Everything Bubble bursting, sovereign debt crisis, policy error risks, and potential for all hell breaking loose. Manager sees systemic fragility across multiple dimensions.
Opportunity Density
Strong opportunity set identified in gold and precious metals space with miners significantly undervalued, physical gold market tight, and Bitcoin presenting buying opportunity. Manager sees rich opportunities in preferred themes despite broader market challenges.
Time Horizon
Medium to long-term orientation with 24-month positive outlook for portfolio and references to multi-year gold bull market potential. Some catalyst-driven elements but overall patient capital approach to sound money themes and structural positioning.
