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| Quarter | Letter Date | Fund Name | QTD | YTD | Tickers | Themes | Quick Take |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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"Bristlemoon delivered -3.2% in March 2025, hurt by Xponential Fitness exit but helped by China holdings. Fund proactively raised cash to 22% and hedged before Trump tariffs, then upgraded portfolio quality by exiting rate-sensitive and ad-dependent names."
Bristlemoon Global Fund returned -3.2% in March 2025 quarter, driven primarily by a material loss on Xponential Fitness exit after earnings disappointment. Key contributors included China-based holdings PDD Holdings and Tencent Holdings. The fund proactively increased cash weighting to 22% and hedged market exposure ahead of Trump's tariff announcements, demonstrating disciplined risk management during uncertain times. Post quarter-end, the fund exited Interactive Brokers and Pinterest to upgrade portfolio quality and reduce exposure to rate-sensitive and advertising-dependent businesses. The fund's largest positions include Hemnet Group, a Swedish property portal monopoly with significant pricing power potential, and PAR Technology, a mission-critical restaurant software provider with enormous latent pricing power. Management maintains focus on owning durable, high-quality businesses while preserving capital and optionality to capitalize on emerging opportunities during continued market volatility. The defensive positioning and portfolio upgrades have strengthened the fund's ability to navigate uncertain market conditions while maintaining long-term return potential.
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Algorithmic conviction, macroeconomic posture, and risk appetite signals extracted from this quarterly letter with qualitative explanations.
Market Conviction
The manager maintains a relatively concentrated portfolio of 13 long positions and articulates deep, structural, fundamental theses for its largest holdings, Hemnet and PAR. However, the quick capitulation and total exit from multiple positions like XPOF, IBKR, and PINS in response to macro shifts reflects slightly more tactical, flexible portfolio management rather than permanent, unhedged holding conviction.
Growth Outlook
The manager's outlook is cautious and defensive, citing a highly uncertain macro environment, jumping recession odds, and potential damage from tariff regimes. While they mention value starting to creep back into the market, their primary focus remains on navigating a volatile 'risk-off' climate.
Risk Appetite
The fund actively took steps to de-risk, raising its cash balance to a 22% weighting and buying index put options to hedge its market exposure. They have also trimmed down portfolio concentration in high-beta names to manage potential 'maximum loss' limits in response to heightened single-stock blowup risks.
Capital Deployment
The fund has engaged in substantial de-risking, aggressively raising its cash balance to 22% by liquidating Interactive Brokers and Pinterest, and completely exiting Xponential Fitness.
Forward Guidance
The fund is preserving its optionality with a high cash buffer to act dynamically as attractive setups arise during the upcoming Q1 earnings season. They have no explicit plans to aggressively deploy capital, preferring to wait for more favorable conditions and less volatile setups.
Language Signal
The letter balances optimistic, quality-focused stock commentary for its core long positions with heavily cautious language regarding macroeconomic policies, recessions, interest margin compression, and budget cuts.
Perceived Risk
The manager identifies significant and imminent risks in the market, particularly stemming from Trump's reciprocal tariff announcements, interest rate volatility, and deteriorating consumer demand cycles.
Opportunity Density
The manager believes value is starting to creep back into the market and is tracking quality compounders on their watchlist. However, they are being highly selective and rotating capital out of legacy positions rather than aggressively buying new names.
Time Horizon
The manager explicitly details long-term multi-year compounding targets for core positions, such as underwriting a 23% IRR out to 2028 for PAR Technology and framing Hemnet's take rate expansion on a 5-year outlook. Nevertheless, tactical liquidations of Interactive Brokers and Pinterest demonstrate near-term macro sensitivity.
