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Quarter	Letter Date	Fund Name	QTD	YTD	Tickers	Themes	Quick Take

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Myrmikan Research 2024 Q3 Investor Letter | Buyside Digest

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Primary Source Intelligence • Q3 2024 Letter Analysis

Myrmikan Research Quarterly Analysis

Buyside Digest is not affiliated with, and does not endorse, Myrmikan Research. This analysis is provided for institutional research purposes only and is not investment advice.

Fund Returns

Digest Analysis

Quick Take

"The U.S. faces unsustainable deficit spending regardless of election outcome, trapped in history's greatest credit bubble with net interest exceeding defense spending. Both Trump's tariff policies and Harris's wealth transfers lead to massive inflation."

Executive Summary

Daniel Oliver argues that Bill Clinton's New Left policies created a fascist-style system of public-private partnerships that captured corporate America, media, education, and government institutions through proxy advisors, accreditation bodies, and regulatory control. This system has led to policy disasters including the housing crash, military recruitment failures, and educational decline. The 2024 election presents a choice between Trump's tariff-protected internal development program and Harris's Marxist wealth transfer agenda, but both paths lead to massive deficit spending and inflation. The U.S. is trapped in the greatest credit bubble in history with net interest expense now exceeding defense spending, signaling imperial decline. Regardless of who wins, deficit spending will continue until the bond market cracks. Gold benefits from this environment as it loves credit collapse and currency debasement that governments use to mitigate economic collapse. The manager supports Trump for cultural, political, and geopolitical reasons but warns his economic policies will still drive inflation through tariffs and deficit spending.

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Institutional Meta Strategy

Meta Strategy Gauges

Algorithmic conviction, macroeconomic posture, and risk appetite signals extracted from this quarterly letter with qualitative explanations.

Signal Matrix

Market Conviction

45%

CautiousHigh

Moderate (45%)

Moderate conviction expressed through strong declarative language about macro themes and gold's benefits, but no specific portfolio positions are named or sized. The letter is philosophical and process-focused without discussing actual holdings.

Growth Outlook

13%

BearishBullish

Bearish (13%)

Extremely bearish outlook describing the U.S. as trapped in 'the greatest credit bubble in history' with unsustainable deficit spending leading to inevitable bond market collapse and imperial decline.

Risk Appetite

0%

DefensiveAggressive

Defensive (0%)

No specific portfolio positioning discussed. The letter is purely analytical and political commentary without reference to current investment exposure or risk positioning.

Capital Deployment

0%

De-riskingDeploying

De-risking (0%)

No information provided about cash levels, position sizing, or deployment activity. The letter focuses entirely on political and economic analysis without portfolio implementation details.

Forward Guidance

25%

CautiousExpansionary

Cautious (25%)

Mild positive bias toward gold deployment based on expected credit collapse and currency debasement, though no specific action plans are outlined for portfolio positioning.

Language Signal

25%

BearishBullish

Bearish (25%)

Language dominated by risk terminology including 'bubble,' 'collapse,' 'disaster,' 'crisis,' and 'imperial decline,' with only gold positioned as benefiting from the expected economic deterioration.

Perceived Risk

90%

Low RiskElevated

Elevated Risk (90%)

Extremely high perceived risk with explicit systemic warnings about the greatest credit bubble in history, unsustainable deficit spending, bond market collapse, and imperial decline. Multiple specific threats are named and discussed in detail.

Opportunity Density

25%

ScarceAbundant

Scarce (25%)

Very limited opportunity set implied, with only gold specifically identified as benefiting from the expected economic collapse. The overall tone suggests few attractive opportunities in the current bubble environment.

Time Horizon

70%

Short-TermLong-Term

Decade+ (70%)

Multi-year thesis expecting credit collapse and currency debasement to play out over several years. No urgency expressed for immediate positioning, suggesting a patient approach to the expected macro developments.