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Quarter	Letter Date	Fund Name	QTD	YTD	Tickers	Themes	Quick Take

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Myrmikan Research 2023 Q3 Investor Letter | Buyside Digest

Back to Fund Profile (Myrmikan Research)

Primary Source Intelligence • Q3 2023 Letter Analysis

Myrmikan Research Quarterly Analysis

Buyside Digest is not affiliated with, and does not endorse, Myrmikan Research. This analysis is provided for institutional research purposes only and is not investment advice.

Fund Returns

Positioning StanceConstructive

GeographyUS

Digest Analysis

Quick Take

"Myrmikan argues the post-1980 financial system faces inevitable collapse due to Fed insolvency, massive deficits, and banking system stress from Treasury bond losses. Despite gold investor frustration, all thesis conditions have materialized."

Executive Summary

Myrmikan Research presents a comprehensive analysis of systemic financial risks facing the US economy, drawing parallels to historical inflection points. The manager argues that the Federal Reserve faces three critical problems: inappropriate monetary tools for deficit-driven inflation, declining cash balance preference as rates rise, and severe stress on the banking system from higher rates. The Fed itself is operationally insolvent with over $120 billion in losses, while the reverse repo facility has declined from $2.6 trillion to $1.2 trillion, representing stealth quantitative easing. The banking system relies on Treasury bonds as collateral, but mark-to-market losses threaten stability when banks face liquidity pressures. Multiple geopolitical and economic risks could accelerate systemic breakdown. Despite gold investors' frustration, all necessary conditions for the investment thesis have materialized. The manager compares current gold positioning to bond bulls in 1980, suggesting the financial system collapse that began in 1980 is long overdue, positioning gold for significant appreciation.

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Institutional Meta Strategy

Meta Strategy Gauges

Algorithmic conviction, macroeconomic posture, and risk appetite signals extracted from this quarterly letter with qualitative explanations.

Signal Matrix

Market Conviction

45%

CautiousHigh

Moderate (45%)

Moderate conviction based on strong thematic analysis and historical parallels, but no specific portfolio positions or sizing discussed. The letter is primarily macro commentary without named holdings or explicit position management, limiting assessable conviction despite confident analytical tone.

Growth Outlook

13%

BearishBullish

Bearish (13%)

Strongly bearish outlook with explicit warnings of financial system collapse, comparisons to 1929 crash, and descriptions of systemic vulnerabilities across banking, monetary policy, and geopolitical fronts. The manager states the collapse is 'long overdue' and describes multiple catastrophic scenarios.

Risk Appetite

25%

DefensiveAggressive

Defensive (25%)

Despite bearish outlook, the manager maintains conviction in gold positioning and compares current investors to bond bulls of 1980 who were positioned for major gains. The positioning appears defensive but committed to the thesis rather than risk-off.

Capital Deployment

0%

De-riskingDeploying

De-risking (0%)

No discussion of cash levels, position sizing changes, or deployment activity. The letter is entirely analytical commentary without reference to portfolio management actions or capital allocation decisions.

Forward Guidance

38%

CautiousExpansionary

Neutral (38%)

The manager expects systemic breakdown and financial collapse but views this as validating rather than threatening to positioning. No explicit guidance on adding or reducing exposure, suggesting a wait-and-watch approach for catalysts to accelerate.

Language Signal

25%

BearishBullish

Bearish (25%)

Language heavily weighted toward risk terminology including collapse, crisis, insolvency, breakdown, systemic disruptions, and multiple catastrophic scenarios. While opportunity is implied for gold, the dominant framing is negative and warning-focused.

Perceived Risk

90%

Low RiskElevated

Elevated Risk (90%)

Extremely high perceived risk with detailed discussion of systemic threats including Fed insolvency, banking system collapse, multiple war scenarios, infrastructure attacks, and cascading failures. The manager explicitly warns of financial system breakdown and compares current conditions to pre-crash periods.

Opportunity Density

25%

ScarceAbundant

Scarce (25%)

Limited opportunity discussion focused primarily on gold as beneficiary of systemic breakdown. The manager suggests most assets face significant risks while positioning gold as the primary opportunity, indicating a narrow rather than broad opportunity set.

Time Horizon

70%

Short-TermLong-Term

Decade+ (70%)

Multi-year perspective with references to 41-year bond bull market, 33-year previous bear market, and historical parallels to 1929 and 1980. The manager takes a long-term view of systemic cycles while suggesting the collapse is 'overdue,' indicating patience for thesis realization over years rather than quarters.