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| Quarter | Letter Date | Fund Name | QTD | YTD | Tickers | Themes | Quick Take |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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"Manole Capital positions in financial infrastructure benefiting from volatility through exchange operators and emerging digital rails. Portfolio captures increased trading activity from geopolitical uncertainty while participating in stablecoin adoption and prediction market evolution."
Manole Capital's Q2 2026 letter emphasizes the fund's positioning in financial infrastructure businesses that benefit from volatility and uncertainty. The portfolio focuses on exchange operators like ICE and CME that profit from elevated trading activity driven by geopolitical tensions, shifting Fed policy expectations, and inflation concerns. The manager highlights three emerging themes: prediction markets evolving into information networks with ICE's investment in Polymarket validating this infrastructure opportunity; stablecoins moving toward mainstream adoption as complementary payment rails with regulatory clarity improving; and a potential reopening IPO window though valuation discipline remains critical given historical underperformance of richly-priced offerings. The letter discusses an anticipated philosophical shift at the Fed under potential new leadership toward monetarist principles emphasizing balance sheet management over forward guidance. Key risks include persistent inflation above the Fed's 2% target, rising long-term Treasury yields, and consumer sentiment at historic lows. The manager maintains focus on infrastructure providers building rails beneath evolving financial ecosystems rather than predicting specific technology winners, with private investments including Stripe and recent liquidity from Klarna's IPO.
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