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Fund Returns
YTD-14.9%
Positioning StanceNEUTRAL
GeographyGlobal
Digest Analysis
Quick Take
"Recurve is down 14.9% YTD, driven by Carvana's 22% decline despite rising earnings estimates. The manager maintains 47% exposure to Carvana, expecting EBITDA to triple over three years as the company sustains 40% growth."
Executive Summary
Recurve Capital underperformed significantly in the first half of 2026, down 14.9% net versus the S&P 500's 9.6% gain, driven primarily by Carvana's 22% decline which accounted for 80% of the fund's negative performance. Despite this underperformance, the manager maintains high conviction in Carvana, which represents 47% of the portfolio. The manager expects Carvana's EBITDA to triple over the next three years as the company sustains 40% unit growth, with the stock currently trading at 18.6x 2027 consensus EBITDA. Short-term volatility has been driven by weekly alternative data fluctuations and operational issues at reconditioning centers during system upgrades, but the manager views these as temporary challenges. The investment approach focuses on multi-year earnings growth rather than quarterly results, with returns expected to materialize as Carvana compounds several years of above-consensus growth. The portfolio remains highly concentrated with 11 positions, and the manager made minor rebalancing adjustments, trimming e.l.f. Beauty to add to DoorDash and Shopify. The manager emphasizes patience and long-term orientation, willing to endure near-term underperformance when the fundamental thesis remains intact.
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