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Quarter	Letter Date	Fund Name	QTD	YTD	Tickers	Themes	Quick Take

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Myrmikan Research 2026 Q2 Investor Letter | Buyside Digest

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Primary Source Intelligence • Q2 2026 Letter Analysis

Myrmikan Research Quarterly Analysis

Buyside Digest is not affiliated with, and does not endorse, Myrmikan Research. This analysis is provided for institutional research purposes only and is not investment advice.

SOURCE UNAVAILABLE

Fund Returns

Positioning StanceConstructive

Market CapMega Cap

Digest Analysis

Quick Take

"AI represents a $2.5 trillion debt bubble built on false productivity assumptions that will collapse and force Fed money printing. The hyperscalers are burning cash funding data centers while $1.2 trillion in AI debt sits in undercapitalized life insurers."

Executive Summary

The manager argues that artificial intelligence is following Solow's Paradox, where massive capital investment fails to produce measurable productivity gains. Despite $2.5 trillion valuations for AI labs and $9.5 trillion for semiconductor suppliers, 95% of organizations report zero return on AI investments. The hyperscalers have accumulated over $2 trillion in off-balance sheet liabilities funding data center buildouts, while consuming all their cash flow and issuing debt to maintain dividends. Most critically, $1.2 trillion in AI-backed debt sits inside PE-owned life insurance companies with only 4% equity cushions, creating systemic risk identical to the 2008 housing crisis. The manager expects sequential failures starting with neoclouds, spreading to AI labs, then forcing hyperscalers to cut shareholder returns. Life insurance policy holders will demand redemptions, triggering runs and government intervention. Federal Reserve Chairman Warsh will repeat Greenspan's error of lowering rates based on false productivity assumptions, then be forced to print money to prevent systemic collapse. The manager recommends gold as the clearest safe haven.

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Institutional Meta Strategy

Meta Strategy Gauges

Algorithmic conviction, macroeconomic posture, and risk appetite signals extracted from this quarterly letter with qualitative explanations.

Signal Matrix

85%

CautiousHigh

High Conviction (85%)

Market Conviction

The manager demonstrates very high conviction through the depth and specificity of his analysis. The letter is 20 pages of detailed forensic examination of financial statements, debt structures, and historical parallels. He provides specific figures: $1.2 trillion in AI debt, $2 trillion in off-balance sheet liabilities, 29.7% S&P 500 concentration, 4% insurance equity cushions. The analysis traces the entire AI value chain from chips to labs to hyperscalers to neoclouds to PE firms to life insurers. The historical framework spanning from the gold standard through Greenspan to Warsh shows deep research. The declarative conclusion that gold is the best safe haven, combined with the systematic dismantling of AI productivity claims, reflects strong conviction. However, the letter does not name specific gold positions or sizing, which prevents a score above 0.85.

8%

BearishBullish

Bearish (8%)

Growth Outlook

The manager presents an unambiguously bearish market outlook, warning of an impending AI bubble collapse comparable to history's greatest manias. He explicitly states that AI debt will fail and prompt another wave of Fed bailouts, describes the current situation as worse than 2008, and predicts systemic financial instability. The letter is dominated by warnings of collapse, historical parallels to the 1920s bubble and Great Depression, and explicit predictions that the stock market will crash and the boomer nest egg will crack. This represents a core bearish thesis with strong declarative language about inevitable collapse.

5%

DefensiveAggressive

Defensive (5%)

Risk Appetite

While the letter does not explicitly describe the fund's current positioning, the manager's recommendation is unambiguous: gold as a safe haven against the coming collapse. The entire 20-page letter builds the case for maximum defensive positioning. The manager states that gold may not be the only safe haven, but it is certainly the clearest and the simplest and the best, which implies a strong recommendation for capital preservation mode. The analysis of systemic risks, insurance company failures, and inevitable Fed bailouts all point toward a maximum risk-off stance. This is as defensive as market commentary gets without explicitly stating short positions.

15%

De-riskingDeploying

De-risking (15%)

Capital Deployment

While the letter does not provide explicit fund positioning data, the manager's recommendation is clearly defensive: move capital into gold as a safe haven. The entire analysis builds toward capital preservation rather than deployment into risk assets. The manager is not describing a wait-and-see monitoring posture but rather an active recommendation to seek protection. The absence of any discussion of attractive entry points, buying opportunities, or areas for deployment, combined with the explicit gold recommendation, indicates a strong de-risking bias. This scores -0.70 as it represents a clear recommendation to reduce risk exposure, though without specific cash level changes to score it at the maximum -1.00.

13%

CautiousExpansionary

Cautious (13%)

Forward Guidance

The manager's forward guidance is explicitly defensive and cautious. He predicts sequential failures across the AI ecosystem and recommends gold as protection. The letter concludes with a clear directive that for the rest, gold may not be the only safe haven, but it is certainly the clearest and the simplest and the best. This is not a wait-and-see posture but an active recommendation to seek safe haven assets. However, it stops short of recommending active shorting or complete equity avoidance, focusing instead on gold as protection, which places it at -0.75 rather than the maximum bearish -1.00.

3%

BearishBullish

Bearish (3%)

Language Signal

The language throughout the letter is overwhelmingly bearish and risk-focused. Terms dominate such as: bubble (used 20+ times), collapse, failure, impaired, toxic debt, catastrophic, systemic risk, crisis, panic, bankruptcy, runs, bailout, malinvestment, and overvalued. The manager uses historical parallels to the Great Depression, 1873 railroad bubble, and 2008 financial crisis. Bullish language is almost entirely absent except when quoting others' mistaken optimism. The few positive mentions of AI utility are immediately followed by warnings about the confusion between utility and value. This represents one of the most bearish letters in tone and language.

95%

Low RiskElevated

Elevated Risk (95%)

Perceived Risk

The manager perceives extreme systemic risk across multiple dimensions. He explicitly compares the current situation to 2008 but argues it is worse due to the opacity of private credit and offshore reinsurance. He identifies specific tail risks: life insurance runs, PE firm moral hazard, circular funding dynamics, $2 trillion in hidden liabilities, and inevitable Fed money printing. The letter devotes multiple pages to explaining how the AI debt structure creates conditions for systemic collapse. He uses phrases like catastrophic errors, systemic instability, and threatens the financial system and shakes America's social foundations. The detailed analysis of how failures will cascade from neoclouds to AI labs to hyperscalers to insurers to the broader economy represents one of the most comprehensive risk assessments possible. This is not standard risk disclosure but a detailed roadmap of systemic failure.

15%

ScarceAbundant

Scarce (15%)

Opportunity Density

The manager sees extremely limited opportunities in the current environment. The only explicit opportunity mentioned is gold as a safe haven. The entire letter is devoted to explaining why the AI ecosystem, which represents nearly 30% of the S&P 500, is overvalued and headed for collapse. There is no discussion of attractive entry points, undervalued sectors, or areas of opportunity beyond the single gold recommendation. The manager characterizes the current environment as a bubble where malinvestment dominates and the Fed has set rates too low for too long. This represents one of the sparsest opportunity sets possible, with essentially one recommended asset class out of defensive necessity rather than opportunity abundance.

45%

Short-TermLong-Term

Multi-Year (45%)

Time Horizon

The manager's time horizon is medium-term, focused on the inevitable collapse of the AI bubble but without specifying exact timing. He discusses the sequential nature of failures (neoclouds first, then AI labs, then hyperscalers, then insurers) which implies a multi-quarter to multi-year process. The historical parallels he draws (1920s bubble took a decade to build and collapse, internet bubble from 1995-2000) suggest he views this as a cycle that will play out over years rather than months. However, the urgency of the recommendation to move into gold, combined with specific catalysts like policy holder redemptions and neocloud debt maturities, suggests the timeline is measured in quarters to a few years rather than decades. The lack of specific timing predictions and the focus on structural rather than tactical factors places this at 0.45.