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| Quarter | Letter Date | Fund Name | QTD | YTD | Tickers | Themes | Quick Take |
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"The fund returned 30% year-to-date as the Strait of Hormuz closure disrupted 14 million barrels per day for four months. Despite this, energy equities underperformed global markets and major oil stocks declined."
The Guinness Global Energy Fund returned 30% year-to-date through May 2026 amid unprecedented Middle East disruption. The four-month closure of the Strait of Hormuz has shut off 14 million barrels per day of oil exports, yet Brent prices averaged only $94/bl, contained by large inventory buffers, persistent deal optimism, and rapid rebalancing of global flows. The managers calculate that 1.1 billion barrels have already been lost to the market, with total losses expected to exceed 2 billion barrels. They warn that OECD commercial stocks could reach operational floor levels by September if disruption continues, forcing sharp price increases to destroy more demand. Even after reopening, recovery will be slow due to tanker logistics, storage constraints, field restart challenges, and infrastructure damage, with normality not expected before end of 2026. Despite strong performance, the managers argue energy equities remain undervalued, with current valuations implying $73/bl long-term Brent versus their $80/bl target, offering 20% further upside. The portfolio maintains diversified exposure across integrated majors, E&P, midstream, services, and refining, positioned for a structurally higher oil price environment.
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