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| Quarter | Letter Date | Fund Name | QTD | YTD | Tickers | Themes | Quick Take |
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"Ameliora reduced technology exposure in late June despite market highs, concerned that $3 trillion in AI debt creates unsustainable servicing burdens for an unproven commercial model. Record margin debt signals fragility while semiconductor valuations appear bubble-like."
Markets staged a strong recovery after the Iran conflict ended, with crude oil falling from $120 to below $70 per barrel and most equity indices reaching all-time highs. AI enthusiasm and memory chip shortages drove US equities and South Korean markets to extreme valuations, though MAG7 stocks posted negative returns year to date as markets question whether AI spending translates to shareholder value. SpaceX's $1.8 trillion IPO despite projecting $5 billion annual losses exemplifies the speculative mood. US margin debt reached a record $1.4-1.42 trillion, creating market fragility. The manager is reducing technology exposure due to concerns that $3 trillion in AI-related debt with $309 billion annual servicing costs is incompatible with profit trajectories. They remain constructive on equities overall, supported by AI capital expenditure trickling through the economy, but favor gold mining equities and defense names offering strong cash flows. Structural central bank demand supports a bullish long-term view on precious metals. The Fed's hawkish shift under Warsh should keep the dollar well-supported through favorable rate differentials.
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