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Quarter	Letter Date	Fund Name	QTD	YTD	Tickers	Themes	Quick Take

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The Bristlemoon Global Fund 2026 Q3 Investor Letter | Buyside Digest

Back to Fund Profile (The Bristlemoon Global Fund)

Primary Source Intelligence • Q3 2026 Letter Analysis

The Bristlemoon Global Fund Quarterly Analysis

Buyside Digest is not affiliated with, and does not endorse, The Bristlemoon Global Fund. This analysis is provided for institutional research purposes only and is not investment advice.

Fund Returns

QTD-8.4%

Annualized-10.5%

Positioning StanceCAUTIOUS

Market CapAll Cap

GeographyGlobal

Digest Analysis

Quick Take

"The Bristlemoon Global Fund returned -8.4% net of fees in Q3 2026, driven by adverse market breadth and underperformance in non-AI holdings, while actively trimming net exposure to 72.5% by deploying into new short ideas across consumer, housing, and powersports sectors."

Executive Summary

The Bristlemoon Global Fund returned -8.4% net of fees in the third quarter of 2026, bringing 12-month net performance to -34.8% and since-inception annualized net returns to -10.5%. The fund closed September with 99.2% long exposure, -26.7% short exposure, and 72.5% net exposure across 20 long positions and 19 short positions. Performance suffered from an unforgiving market environment characterized by severe narrowness, where 70% of S&P 500 year-to-date returns were driven by the top 10 index contributors—predominantly semiconductor and artificial intelligence infrastructure holdings that the fund historically underweighted—while the broader market experienced broad-based drawdowns. Macroeconomic conditions have turned increasingly challenging as rising long-term Treasury yields and inflationary pressures stemming from geopolitical conflict in Iran weighed on economic sentiment. In response to mounting macro pressures and higher cost-of-capital realities, the manager expanded the short portfolio, targeting leveraged consumer, housing, and discretionary businesses. Concurrently, the manager highlighted the transformative operational impact of artificial intelligence on investment research, adopting frontier large language models as analytical copilots to stress-test theses, run screens, and monitor portfolio risks while refocusing primary human edge on qualitative investigative scuttlebutt. Portfolio activity centered on expanding high-conviction short positions across four core names: The Campbell's Company (CPB), REA Group (REA.AX), MasterBrand (MBC), and Polaris (PII). The CPB short capitalizes on supplier pricing rollbacks by major grocers, volume degradation, high debt servicing costs, and a recent dividend cut. In Australia, REA Group is shorted due to an abrupt real estate freeze, falling auction clearances, and downside risk to FY27 listing volumes and yield growth. MBC and PII were initiated as rate-sensitive discretionary shorts facing tough comparable periods, leverage constraints, and weakening consumer demand.

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Institutional Meta Strategy

Meta Strategy Gauges

Algorithmic conviction, macroeconomic posture, and risk appetite signals extracted from this quarterly letter with qualitative explanations.

Signal Matrix

72%

CautiousHigh

High Conviction (72%)

Market Conviction

A defined portfolio of 20 longs and 19 shorts with highly specific operational teardowns on 4 major short ideas. The manager articulates falsifiable, granular financial metrics and catalyst dates for each short position, while openly acknowledging performance disappointment and ongoing broader market headwinds.

35%

BearishBullish

Bearish (35%)

Growth Outlook

A cautious stance driven by narrow market breadth, negative beta across nearly half of US large caps, and rising yields and inflationary risks from the Iran conflict. The manager expects continued volatility and earnings cuts across cyclical sectors even as long holdings trade at depressed valuations.

40%

DefensiveAggressive

Defensive (40%)

Risk Appetite

Defensive net exposure of 72.5%, reduced from previous levels as short exposure expanded to 26.7% across 19 names. Capital is actively tilted to protect against rate and consumer shocks rather than pursuing aggressive risk-on gross leverage.

45%

De-riskingDeploying

Net Neutral (45%)

Capital Deployment

A capital deployment score of 0.45 represents a net neutral to slight de-risking posture as net exposure drifted down to 72.5% through the expansion of the short book. The manager is maintaining portfolio capacity while waiting for valuation gaps to close.

60%

CautiousExpansionary

Neutral (60%)

Forward Guidance

A deliberate strategy to selectively scale short exposures while patiently holding undervalued long compounders. The manager plans to further integrate AI-driven screening and portfolio monitoring tools while actively vetting corporate fundamentals.

35%

BearishBullish

Bearish (35%)

Language Signal

A language signal score of 0.35 is driven by the predominant focus on deteriorating macro data, margin compression, covenant breaches, frozen housing transactions, and weak guidance across writeups. Positive language is largely confined to long-term valuation potential and AI workflow efficiency.

78%

Low RiskElevated

Elevated Risk (78%)

Perceived Risk

Meaningful concern regarding elevated 30-year mortgage rates above 7%, persistent energy and commodity inflation from the Iran war, deteriorating housing market liquidity, and tight credit agreement covenants across indebted corporates.

65%

ScarceAbundant

Abundant (65%)

Opportunity Density

An opportunity density score of 0.65 balances sparse opportunities in standard long equities with a rich environment for single-stock short ideas surfaced via algorithmic screens. The manager notes finding increasing numbers of vulnerable companies that have not yet priced in higher yields.

60%

Short-TermLong-Term

Multi-Year (60%)

Time Horizon

A multi-year fundamental horizon (1 to 3 years) for long holdings alongside 6-to-18-month catalyst timelines for short ideas such as FY27 earnings cuts and debt covenant resets.