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| Quarter | Letter Date | Fund Name | QTD | YTD | Tickers | Themes | Quick Take |
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"Alpine Capital trimmed overweight technology and semiconductor allocations toward neutral while maintaining energy exposure and emphasizing cash-generative dividend compounders amid sticky inflation, high bond yields, and AI capex scrutiny."
Global equity markets ended the third quarter of 2026 modestly higher, but headline index gains masked broad internal weakness, with the equal-weighted S&P 500 declining 2.11% and the median constituent losing 4.70%. Performance was concentrated in Energy and Information Technology, while small-cap equities experienced sharp drawdowns. Alpine Capital maintained a disciplined posture across its ETF and model strategies, executing measured portfolio adjustments rather than wholesale changes. The manager reduced overweight technology exposure back toward neutral weightings and trimmed semiconductor positions to navigate cyclical consolidation. The investment team's macroeconomic outlook centers on persistent inflationary pressures anchored by geopolitical conflict in the Middle East and surging energy inputs, which threaten to bleed into core inflation and keep interest rates higher for longer. Concurrently, massive capital expenditure on artificial intelligence infrastructure is creating cross-asset competition for capital, elevating corporate borrowing requirements alongside sovereign and consumer debt. With the 10-year Treasury yield matching the S&P 500 earnings yield at roughly 5.3%, fixed income poses genuine competition to equities, raising the hurdle rate for equity investments and elevating the importance of underlying earnings growth over multiple expansion. Portfolio activity remained selective and focused on durability, with energy exposure continuing to deliver positive contributions and long-term copper investments positioned to capture electrification and AI infrastructure demand. The firm emphasized its Offshore Dividend Portfolio, prioritizing cash-generative businesses in consumer staples, energy, utilities, and infrastructure that can consistently increase dividends. In contrast, South African domestic equities remain categorized as an uncompelling value trap due to severe infrastructure decay and lack of policy reform. The manager expects continued near-term market unevenness ahead of US midterm elections but remains constructive on long-term compounders.
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