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| Quarter | Letter Date | Fund Name | QTD | YTD | Tickers | Themes | Quick Take |
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"EMA GARP Fund's 20% Q2 decline reflects temporary AI euphoria overshadowing their core monetary debasement thesis. With US debt at 123% of GDP and inevitable massive inflation ahead, gold and silver miners offer extreme asymmetry at current prices."
EMA GARP Fund declined 20% in Q2 2026 as AI euphoria drove the NASDAQ up 21.6% while gold and mining stocks corrected sharply. The managers view this as a temporary setback in their core monetary debasement thesis. With US federal debt at 123% of GDP and annual deficits of 5-6%, they argue the government is effectively bankrupt and will be forced to inflate massively. New Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh's hawkish posture is viewed as temporary theater before inevitable rate cuts and balance sheet expansion. The managers see financial war escalating between the West and Russia/China/Iran, with gold replacing US Treasuries as the global reserve asset. Far East central banks are accumulating gold aggressively while Western investors sell. The portfolio is concentrated in gold and silver miners trading at extreme valuations despite record profitability. Case studies of Aris Mining and Avino Silver demonstrate multi-bagger potential with substantial operating leverage to higher bullion prices. Sentiment indicators show extreme oversold conditions historically associated with major rallies. The managers maintain high conviction that their portfolio could double or triple in the next bull market leg, requiring only patience as the AI bubble and broader equity market face risks comparable to 1999 and 2007.
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