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| Quarter | Letter Date | Fund Name | QTD | YTD | Tickers | Themes | Quick Take |
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"Markets rewarded diversification in H1 2026, with emerging markets, small caps, and value significantly outperforming AI-driven growth despite strong fundamentals. Euphoric speculation dominates options markets and IPO valuations, with SpaceX listing at 90x revenue exemplifying excess."
The first half of 2026 rewarded diversification, with emerging markets up 23.8%, small caps up 22.6%, and value stocks up 16.2%, all outperforming the S&P 500's 10.2% return and AI-associated growth stocks' 5.3% gain. Strong fundamentals underpin markets, with S&P 500 earnings up 19%, but euphoric behavior has emerged in options markets where calls now cost as much as puts, same-day options account for half of retail volume, and leveraged ETFs have quadrupled in assets since 2020. SpaceX's $1.8 trillion listing at 90 times revenue while losing $5 billion exemplifies excessive valuations, with historical data showing twelve of fourteen similar IPOs underperformed over three years. The manager emphasizes that foresight is not an edge—even perfect foresight fails without disciplined position sizing. International markets outperformed despite dollar strength and geopolitical deterioration, suggesting structural change driven by valuation. The portfolio leans toward sensibly priced small caps and international equities while maintaining discipline against speculative excess. The edge lies in knowing base rates, sizing commitments carefully, and favoring humility over hype.
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