Institutional ticker directory tracking stock mentions, long/short ideas, and high-conviction pitches extracted from quarterly hedge fund letters.
| Ticker | Company | Sector | Industry | Pitches | Stance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fund / Manager | Thesis Excerpt | Stance | Period / Date | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Voss Value Fund Travis Cocke | “CLBT is a duopolistic “Rule of 40+” compounder (with a rational private equity owned competitor) trading at a steep discount to software and government intelligence/cybersecurity peers. The set-up in CLBT shares can be characterized as arbitraging depressed near-term sentiment and extremely positive medium to long-term fundamentals. Priced like a ho-hum company selling into a saturated law enforcement TAM, the market is underestimating CLBT's ongoing successful transition into a full blown “case to closure” software platform. Shares can re-rate higher as the revenue growth acceleration story of 2026 comes into sharper focus on the back of a resurgence of federal spending, the company's Inseyets (“insights”) upgrade cycle, and successful cross-selling initiatives with modules like Guardian's cloud evidence management system (growing >100%) and AI analytics from Pathfinder (growing 25%). The recent acquisition of Corellium acts as a revenue growth accelerant as well as being a strategic “acqui-hire” that strengthens the company's ties to federal agencies while expanding the platform's capabilities. Judging by the company's valuation, which we currently peg near 16x 2027 FCF, (a big discount to the market overall) we believe the market is bracing for growth to substantially deteriorate following a reversal in 2026 (or alternatively, the market is skeptical of a 2026 reacceleration). While 2027 might not grow as high as 2026 due to the unusual circumstances going on at the Federal government, it is our view that new CEO Tom Hogan is aggressively putting in new, longer term growth drivers like their recently released Investigator product and looking at potential TAM expanding acquisitions. Cellebrite has good penetration within Forensic units, but their push into the large Investigative Units is what we believe drives the next phase of growth. It's our view that 2026 is the year the market becomes more comfortable with Cellebrite as a true “platform” story, which generally results in multiple expansion. CLBT has exceptional cash flow dynamics and elite profitability, converting 130-140% of EBITDA into free cash flow, putting it in rarefied air on “Rule of 40” scores when using revenue growth and FCF margins in lieu of EBITDA margins. The involvement of two activist investors(ValueAct and True Wind Capital) at CLBT's majority shareholder, Japanese listed Sun Corporation, materially increases the likelihood of a full sale of the company within the next two years. In an optimistic scenario, if growth re-accelerates to the 25% range, coupled with 50% incremental margins, we think the stock would be worth ~$33 on 2026 numbers, giving shares 90%+ upside from here over the next year or so. BSD Analysis: Cellebrite is the undisputed global leader in Digital Intelligence (DI), whose stock is a high-growth play on the secular, non-negotiable demand for public safety software. The company's formidable moat is built on its subscription-based model, which generates over 88% of revenue from sticky, recurring licenses to government and law enforcement agencies. This commitment to the public sector ensures resilient, non-cyclical ARR growth (up 19% year-over-year) and exceptional Non-GAAP gross margins exceeding 84%. Cellebrite is aggressively leveraging AI-powered solutions like Guardian Investigate to help customers analyze massive volumes of digital evidence, expanding its wallet share from extraction to full-cycle case management. With a net cash balance sheet and minimal debt, the company is generating strong free cash flow and is positioned to compound value through disciplined M&A. Despite the stock's premium valuation, its mission-critical role in solving modern crime and a planned expansion into cloud-based offerings justify the multiple, signaling a durable long-term compounder.” | BULL | Q3 2025 Nov 25, 2025 | View Pitch |
Voss Value Offshore Fund Travis Cocke | “CLBT is a duopolistic “Rule of 40+” compounder (with a rational private equity owned competitor) trading at a steep discount to software and government intelligence/cybersecurity peers. The set-up in CLBT shares can be characterized as arbitraging depressed near-term sentiment and extremely positive medium to long-term fundamentals. Priced like a ho-hum company selling into a saturated law enforcement TAM, the market is underestimating CLBT's ongoing successful transition into a full blown “case to closure” software platform. Shares can re-rate higher as the revenue growth acceleration story of 2026 comes into sharper focus on the back of a resurgence of federal spending, the company's Inseyets (“insights”) upgrade cycle, and successful cross-selling initiatives with modules like Guardian's cloud evidence management system (growing >100%) and AI analytics from Pathfinder (growing 25%). The recent acquisition of Corellium acts as a revenue growth accelerant as well as being a strategic “acqui-hire” that strengthens the company's ties to federal agencies while expanding the platform's capabilities. Judging by the company's valuation, which we currently peg near 16x 2027 FCF, (a big discount to the market overall) we believe the market is bracing for growth to substantially deteriorate following a reversal in 2026 (or alternatively, the market is skeptical of a 2026 reacceleration). While 2027 might not grow as high as 2026 due to the unusual circumstances going on at the Federal government, it is our view that new CEO Tom Hogan is aggressively putting in new, longer term growth drivers like their recently released Investigator product and looking at potential TAM expanding acquisitions. Cellebrite has good penetration within Forensic units, but their push into the large Investigative Units is what we believe drives the next phase of growth. It's our view that 2026 is the year the market becomes more comfortable with Cellebrite as a true “platform” story, which generally results in multiple expansion. CLBT has exceptional cash flow dynamics and elite profitability, converting 130-140% of EBITDA into free cash flow, putting it in rarefied air on “Rule of 40” scores when using revenue growth and FCF margins in lieu of EBITDA margins. The involvement of two activist investors(ValueAct and True Wind Capital) at CLBT's majority shareholder, Japanese listed Sun Corporation, materially increases the likelihood of a full sale of the company within the next two years. In an optimistic scenario, if growth re-accelerates to the 25% range, coupled with 50% incremental margins, we think the stock would be worth ~$33 on 2026 numbers, giving shares 90%+ upside from here over the next year or so. BSD Analysis: Cellebrite is the undisputed global leader in Digital Intelligence (DI), whose stock is a high-growth play on the secular, non-negotiable demand for public safety software. The company's formidable moat is built on its subscription-based model, which generates over 88% of revenue from sticky, recurring licenses to government and law enforcement agencies. This commitment to the public sector ensures resilient, non-cyclical ARR growth (up 19% year-over-year) and exceptional Non-GAAP gross margins exceeding 84%. Cellebrite is aggressively leveraging AI-powered solutions like Guardian Investigate to help customers analyze massive volumes of digital evidence, expanding its wallet share from extraction to full-cycle case management. With a net cash balance sheet and minimal debt, the company is generating strong free cash flow and is positioned to compound value through disciplined M&A. Despite the stock's premium valuation, its mission-critical role in solving modern crime and a planned expansion into cloud-based offerings justify the multiple, signaling a durable long-term compounder.” | BULL | Q3 2025 Nov 25, 2025 | View Pitch |
Voss Value Fund Travis Cocke | “Cellebrite (CLBT), the leading provider of digital forensics software used by law enforcement and government agencies worldwide, reported results that were about as constructive as we could have hoped for given the stock's 50% drop earlier in the year. Management cut revenue guidance by just 1% and raised EBITDA guidance by 2%, while ARR was trimmed by ~4% due to federal budget timing. Gross margins remain exceptionally strong with subscription margins above 90%, billings growth reaccelerated to 25%, and free cash flow continues to outpace EBITDA by over 30%. With recurring revenue, differentiated technology, and improving operating leverage, Cellebrite looks positioned to re-accelerate into 2026. BSD Analysis: Cellebrite DI is a deep-moat, high-growth digital intelligence pure-play whose stock is a conviction bet on the non-cyclical, increasing demand for digital forensic solutions. The core moat is its dominance in providing mission-critical software and hardware to government, law enforcement, and private sector clients for accessing, managing, and analyzing digital data (mobile devices, cloud). The shift to a subscription-based revenue model is driving superior financial predictability, with ARR surging 21% to $346 million. The stock is a high-quality compounder leveraging its essential technology to capture increasing revenue from the non-discretionary need for digital evidence in a complex world.” | BULL | Q2 2025 Aug 22, 2025 | View Pitch |
“Cellebrite has been our worst performing holding YTD. Investors are concerned that uncertainty around US federal budgets will lead to delayed purchases. Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) of $408M was up 23% year-over-year. There is management turnover, with a new CFO hired who previously sold his last company. Cellebrite's SPAC sponsor has 1.5M shares vesting if the stock exceeds $30 by August 2026. The new CFO's experience selling a public company suggests a sale process may be likely. My expected value = $30 and timing = 2026. BSD Analysis: Cellebrite continues to produce strong ARR growth, indicating durable product demand despite budget timing noise. The managerial reshuffle appears strategically aligned with a potential sale, increasing the likelihood of a corporate transaction at a premium. High-margin software economics and mission-critical law enforcement workflows support valuation. SPAC-related incentives create additional pressure to maximize share price within a defined window. Regulatory/budget dependencies remain risks but upside skew is notable.” | BULL | Q2 2025 Jul 1, 2025 | View Pitch | |
Carillon Eagle Small Cap Growth Fund Eric Mintz, Christopher Sassouni, David Cavanaugh | “Cellebrite, which provides software to help law enforcement investigators extract and analyze data from smartphones, provided an outlook that was below expectations, as there were delays in closing deals with government customers, both in the United States and abroad. Despite the temporary setback, which was due primarily to leadership changes and unsettled budgets, two secular trends remain intact: one is the use of smartphone data in detecting and prosecuting criminal activity; the other is the need to comply with standards to preserve the chain of custody of evidence collected during investigations. BSD Analysis: Cellebrite is a dominant player in digital intelligence, helping law enforcement and enterprises extract and analyze data from mobile devices and cloud sources. Demand is rising as digital evidence becomes central to virtually every investigation. The company's platform approach — combining extraction, analytics, and case management — strengthens stickiness and recurring revenue. Regulatory scrutiny exists, but Cellebrite generally operates with government partnerships and transparency that insulate it from the worst risks. Transition to a subscription-heavy model is boosting margins and improving visibility. As cybercrime and digital forensics workloads increase, Cellebrite's relevance only grows. Investors still treat it like a niche Israeli tech vendor, but it's quietly becoming essential infrastructure.” | BULL | Q2 2025 Jun 30, 2025 | View Pitch |
Each excerpt above is the manager's commentary on this ticker specifically. The full letter has the rest of their portfolio thinking, risk discussion, and broader institutional context.
