Institutional ticker directory tracking stock mentions, long/short ideas, and high-conviction pitches extracted from quarterly hedge fund letters.
| Ticker | Company | Sector | Industry | Pitches | Stance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fund / Manager | Thesis Excerpt | Stance | Period / Date | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Hayden Capital, LLC Fred Liu | “New Oriental Education (EDU): We sold the last of our New Oriental position this quarter. The opportunity first appeared in 2022, after a brutal stretch for the company. China had launched a sweeping regulatory crackdown on the after school tutoring sector in 2021 (discussed in our Q2 2021 letter; LINK), and shares were then hit again as investors fled Chinese markets during the 2022 bear market. In total, the stock plummeted 96% from peak to trough in just over a year. Most investors wrote the company off as “uninvestable”. But when we took a closer look that Fall, we saw something different: a company that had stabilized its operations and was positioning itself on the right side of a turnaround. Management had launched several new non-academic business lines – robotics, coding, arts, sports – and even found an unexpected hit in live-streaming through its Koolearn subsidiary, powered by the captive personality of one of its former star instructors. Management was confident the worst was behind them. They believed nearly all planned tutoring center closures were complete, the regulatory overhang was lifting, and they forecasted a return to profitability by the following quarter. They backed up that conviction by returning roughly $700 million to shareholders through a combination of share buybacks and debt repurchases. Yet the market was slow to appreciate these developments. Shares had bounced from their ~$8 low in March 2022 to over $20 by the Fall – but even at that price, the company was valued at just 10 - 20% above its net cash balance. I believed the business could generate over $500 million in free cash flow by FY 2024, implying a ~37% FCF yield at the market price (in reality, they did $836 million FCF that year). Since then, growth has settled into a more measured pace, with revenues up ~+13% y/y and operating profit growing ~+17% y/y over the past two years. The number of tutoring locations have doubled since 2022, to over 1,454 (vs. 706 in mid-2022). Unlike the prior decade though, when revenues grew at roughly 25% annually – from $386M in 2010 to $3.6BN by 2020 – I believe the company's runway for growth is considerably shorter now. Management publicly acknowledged as much a few weeks ago, noting a target of just +10% learning center growth this year. I suspect the next decade will be far less exciting than the last. The societal headwinds we outlined in our Q2 2021 letter remain firmly in place: declining birth rates will eventually weigh on enrollments, and our analysis suggests that families are already nearing the ceiling of what they can afford to spend on tutoring services. That said, this was a great investment for us. We purchased shares at an average price of ~$24, equivalent to an enterprise value of around $600 million – and just an ~18% premium to the company's net cash at the time. Since then, New Oriental has returned ~$1.3 billion to shareholders through share buybacks, debt repurchases, and dividends – most of it funded from cash flow rather than by drawing down the balance sheet. Put differently, the company has essentially paid us back our original “equity at risk” over the holding period. Shares appreciated ~+126% during our ownership. We sold our remaining stake in recent months, as I see better opportunities elsewhere. BSD Analysis: New Oriental is the ultimate survivor, having risen from the ashes of China's regulatory bonfire to build a diversified, high-margin "culture and learning" empire. They've successfully weaponized AI learning devices to penetrate 60 cities, proving that parental demand for prestige is recession-proof even in a cooling economy. With operating margins exploding by 470 basis points, the company is flush with cash, aggressive buybacks, and a growing senior-living pivot that targets the aging elite. This isn't just a tutoring company anymore; it's a lean, tech-heavy platform that has mastered the art of the multi-billion dollar pivot while the competition went extinct.” | BULL | Q4 2025 Feb 25, 2026 | View Pitch |
Hayden Capital, LLC Fred Liu | “EDU Holdings Limited (ASX: EDU) upgraded FY25 guidance in December 2025 following stronger-than-expected results. Management now expects revenue growth of approximately 92%, EBITDA expansion of 215%, and NPAT growth of 452% versus FY24. These results were underpinned by robust student enrolments and favorable cost timing. The company also announced an on-market buyback of 18 million shares at $0.55 per share, funded from cash reserves. The buyback is expected to be EPS accretive and reinforces capital discipline heading into 2026. BSD Analysis: EDU Holdings is education services tied to migration, skills shortages, and credential inflation rather than domestic demographics alone. Demand for vocational and professional education rises when labor markets tighten, not loosen. Investors often lump the company into generic for-profit education skepticism and miss the alignment with employer demand. Regulatory risk exists, but compliance is also a barrier that protects incumbents who know the system. Cash flow quality matters more than enrollment headlines. Growth comes from course relevance, not marketing spend. This is education as workforce infrastructure, not a consumer discretionary product.” | BULL | Q4 2025 Feb 25, 2026 | View Pitch |
Hayden Capital, LLC Fred Liu | “The other Australian investment was in EDU Holdings Limited. The stock has gone up in a straight line since management dropped their attempted buyout this spring for what would have been 1x earnings after subtracting out the net cash. Insiders, with their pulse on the business, knew their rapid, profitable growth was going to continue during 2025 and tried to take the company private before the market really woke up and priced the security more accurately. After the bid was dropped, the stock climbed from $0.165 to as high as almost $1.00 recently. Since the spring, the company has released results and expects revenues and profits to continue to grow for 2025 over 100% when compared to the prior year. They've also bought back a good chunk of stock, roughly 13%, from long term holders that has been extremely accretive to earnings. EDU grew into a top 5 holding and I recently exited the investment. BSD Analysis: EDU operates in a policy-sensitive education market where outcomes are shaped more by regulators than customers. Demand exists, but pricing power is constrained by affordability and oversight. Growth depends on enrollment stability and compliance, not brand dominance. Fixed costs create operating leverage in good times and stress in downturns. Balance-sheet flexibility matters more than expansion ambition. The bull case is steady enrollment and cost control. The bear case is regulatory tightening or demand softness. EDU is a policy bet masquerading as a growth company.” | BULL | Q4 2025 Feb 25, 2026 | View Pitch |
Each excerpt above is the manager's commentary on this ticker specifically. The full letter has the rest of their portfolio thinking, risk discussion, and broader institutional context.
