Institutional Perspectives on Asia

Implementation and legal enforcement of South Korean commercial law reforms requiring minority shareholder protections and mandatory cancellation of corporate treasury shares.

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A transition of enterprise IT budgets from planning and experimenting with AI tools to deploying large-scale programs.

A historic AI capital expenditure cycle and expanding enterprise adoption of Agentic AI.

When the music stopped, SPW outperformed significantly, as its lower exposure to the bubble meant there was less damage from the heavy losses in large-cap companies.

The war in Iran has suddenly made energy security front-of-mind, potentially driving increased investment in traditional energy sources.

Indonesian regulatory improvements to free-float and ownership transparency in response to MSCI pressure could prevent downgrade to Frontier status and restore investor confidence.

Market Posture: NEUTRAL

Agentic AI accelerating throughout enterprises worldwide is driving token consumption to the bottom of a steep S-curve, forcing hyperscalers to invest heavily in data centers.

Negotiations between the US and Iran progressed during Q2, easing concerns of sustained energy supply disruption and helping oil prices decline.

Inflation levels are expected to moderate post Iran war.

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A sudden margin expansion and GAAP profitability inflection as software businesses curb excess spending and benefit from AI-enabled R&D efficiency gains.

Easing of geopolitical tensions (specifically progress in U.S. and Iran negotiations), which helped stabilize oil and energy markets.

A potential shift in investor sentiment away from high-priced momentum stocks toward stable, cash-generating quality companies.

Cooling of enthusiasm around global AI investments leading to near-term monetisation concerns and subsequent capital rotation back to markets like India.

Implementation of multi-billion-dollar infrastructure developments in Vietnam including Hanoi's Red River Boulevard and Long Thanh International Airport.

Sustained high demand for semiconductor hardware and electrical infrastructure supporting artificial intelligence development.

Potential peace agreement in the Middle East and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz causing shipping to resume and crude oil prices to drop.

Core PCE inflation printing at 3.4% year-on-year, the highest since late 2023, coupled with downward revisions to final sales to private domestic purchasers to 1.7%.

Breakthroughs in AI models that drastically increase efficiency, reducing server and energy needs and thereby reducing utilization of existing servers.

Release of the US June core CPI report on July 14th, where a 0.2% monthly rise would afford the Fed leeway to pause while higher prints would pressure policymakers toward a July 29th rate hike.

Expansion of global semiconductor manufacturing and power-generation equipment capacity easing industry supply shortages.

The signing of a memorandum of understanding between the U.S. and Iran pausing hostilities for 60 days, reopening the Strait of Hormuz, and tempering oil prices.

A record wave of high-profile initial public offerings (IPOs) could reach over $200B in public equity issuance, driven by mega-cap listings.

De-escalation in Middle East geopolitical tensions and reopening of critical shipping corridors, leading to stabilized or declining global oil prices.

Broadening of global capital flows away from U.S. mega caps toward international equities supported by attractive relative valuations and prospective U.S. dollar weakness.

Private rail operators are coming in 2027, introducing competition to stimulate South Africa's failed nationalised rail industry and potentially improving logistics constraints.

Expected recovery in Swedish residential property listing volumes to normalised levels over the next few years, driving meaningful increase in revenue and earnings growth for property portal businesses.

Norma completing second share buyback of approximately €208 million at premium to market price up to 30%, bringing total shareholder returns to €260 million from water business sale proceeds.

Labor shortages in many countries making robotics and automation more pressing as a solution to productivity challenges, with robot density still low at about 200 robots per 10,000 employees in North America manufacturing.

News of the Middle East ceasefire in April and subsequent peace deal in June triggered a strong recovery in Asian equities.

De-escalation signals in the Middle East pushed oil prices off their earlier peaks by quarter end, supporting a more stable macro backdrop.

The indiscriminate software selloff has compressed valuations to levels rarely seen, creating a meaningful opportunity for discerning, long-term oriented investors as the divergence between price and fundamentals widens.

De-escalation signals in the Middle East pushed oil prices off their earlier peaks by quarter end, supporting a more stable macro backdrop.

Markets increasingly accepted that central banks are finding it difficult to bring inflation back to target, leading to a shift in interest rate expectations.

The evolution of AI toward Artificial Superintelligence (ASI) is creating massive demand for computing infrastructure, semiconductors, and power generation. SoftBank is positioning itself as the No. 1 ASI Platform Provider across AI models, AI chips, AI infrastructure, and physical AI.

Central banks remained a key focus as investors recalibrated expectations for monetary easing, with the European Central Bank and Bank of Japan raising rates while several other central banks adopted mixed approaches.

Markets increasingly accepted that central banks are finding it difficult to bring inflation back to target, marking a significant shift after four decades of generally falling bond yields.

De-escalation of the Iran conflict and gradual reopening of the Strait of Hormuz has provided fresh momentum to global equities, particularly benefiting US and Asian markets exposed to the AI investment cycle.

Large companies still have long backlogs of technology modernization projects as they prepare for AI. As costs fall from AI-enabled efficiency, project ROI improves, making more of that backlog worth doing and allowing volume to offset price deflation in IT services.

AI monetization evidence strengthening across Cloud platforms, with Alphabet's Cloud revenue growing 82% YoY and 90% of Fortune 100 using Gemini Enterprise, validating the broader AI infrastructure investment thesis.

Improved political visibility across emerging markets provides a more stable investment environment for the second half of 2026.

Memory capacity constraints with no meaningful new supply before 2027 and Samsung expecting memory shortage in 2027 to be more severe than 2026, with tightness persisting into 2028.

Market Posture: NEUTRAL

Better-than-expected Medicare rate increases announced in early April 2024 will help managed care industry close the gap between pricing and cost trends over the next few years.

The FDA is taking a more industry-friendly stance after personnel changes at the agency, including reversing course to allow uniQure to use existing 3-year data to support an accelerated approval filing for its investigational gene therapy for Huntington's disease.

Maturation of AI CapEx cycle as implementation takes longer than expected while massive investments persist, potentially triggering rotation from momentum to quality as markets realize positive outcomes will take time to materialize.

Federal Reserve rate hike expectations rose in June, contributing to market volatility.

Global hyperscaler capital expenditure is expected to rise 80%+ in 2026 to $765 billion, following 80% growth in 2025, with the $1tn mark expected to be easily surpassed in 2027.

Normalization of AI infrastructure supply constraints as massive investments persist while AI adoption and its positive, tangible, and measurable impact take longer than expected.

Strong AI-related demand is driving incremental demand for high-bandwidth memory and supporting a favorable pricing environment in the semiconductor industry.

AI expanding the boundary of what software can do from assisting work to performing it, creating addressable markets that dwarf previous technology eras.

The ongoing migration of legacy on-premise customers to the cloud delivers significant revenue uplift for enterprise software companies, while deep incumbency within mission-critical enterprise workflows provides durable competitive advantages.

A robust capital investment cycle is supporting the Industrials sector.

Visibility of underlying demand for high-bandwidth memory and high-performance chips for leading-edge compute expected to continue for the foreseeable future.

Easing of geopolitical tension as a ceasefire framework gradually took shape in the Middle East, with oil retreating from above $110 to below $70 a barrel, allowing the acute inflation impulse from the first-quarter spike to fade.

Expected gradual normalization of Middle East shipping, inventories, and production following the U.S.-Iran memorandum and reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, though market pricing has likely moved faster than the actual normalization.

Expected gradual resumption of USD weakness over the medium term as energy-related support fades, growth differentials narrow, and the Federal Reserve faces a high hurdle for renewed tightening.

Progress toward a resolution of the Iran conflict and an ongoing artificial intelligence infrastructure buildout led to double-digit gains across both developed and emerging markets.

Strong AI-related demand is driving robust customer demand for memory chips and supporting a favorable pricing environment in the semiconductor sector.

Continued AI capital spending is boosting earnings estimates and broadening performance across sectors and geographies globally.

Pakistan-mediated ceasefire framework and mid-June memorandum of understanding signed by President Trump and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian seeking to end Middle East conflict within sixty days and reopen Strait of Hormuz for free commercial passage.

The Bank of Japan raised interest rates in June by 25 basis points to a 31-year high of 1.0% and indicated that further increases could follow, in line with its interest rate normalisation efforts.

Expected proceeds of c.£290m from the completion of the Stonehage Fleming sale in mid 2026, which will significantly enhance liquidity and position the company to pursue new investment opportunities in the Private Capital pool.

Drillship day rates potentially reaching over $1 million for 20+ years, which would be more than 2x current day rates, driven by no new supply in the pipeline and 5+ year delivery times for new builds costing over $1 billion.

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Expected shift in Federal Reserve policy as the market no longer prices cuts as the base case and starts to consider the opposite direction, with Core PCE at 3.4% year-on-year.

Expected ceasefire in Iran and normalization of traffic out of the Strait of Hormuz supporting oil prices staying below $100 per barrel over the short term.

Corporate governance reforms in Japan continue to improve capital allocation and shareholder returns

Prospect of peace in the Middle East and possible reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, which led to resumption of shipping and sharp decline in crude oil prices from mid-90s to under 70 USD per barrel.

Easing of Middle East tensions following a US-Iran agreement, which caused oil prices to fall sharply and improved market confidence.

Uzbekistan's capital markets development is accelerating with retail investor participation expanding rapidly from a very low base of under 50,000 active accounts in a country of 38 million people.

Firmus is progressing preparations for a potential listing on the Australian stock exchange in the coming months, most likely in early October 2026.

The potential resolution of the Hormuz crisis through the US-Iran Memorandum of Understanding, though agreeing the details is proving difficult.

Historically, quarterly gains above 12% in the S&P 500 have been followed by further upside, with the index rising about 75% of the time and delivering a median gain near 10% over the next two quarters.

President Trump signed a 14-point memorandum of understanding with Iran on 18 June in Versailles, authorising the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and lifting the US naval blockade, with a 60-day window to negotiate remaining issues including Iran's nuclear program and Lebanon.

Market leadership in Japanese equities broadened in June beyond AI and semiconductor stocks, with investor attention returning to individual stock selection and company-specific catalysts.

De-escalation of the US-Iran conflict and partial reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, with the signing of an interim agreement on 17 June 2026, has reduced the geopolitical risk premium built into energy prices.

The reopening of the Strait of Hormuz following President Trump's 14-point memorandum of understanding with Iran on 18 June, with a 60-day window to negotiate remaining issues including Iran's nuclear program and Lebanon.

Ceasefires emerged in the Iran conflict with the US and Iran signing a shaky MOU to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and negotiate during a 60-day ceasefire, leading to falling oil prices that should be a tailwind to energy-sensitive equities.

Increasing market differentiation between AI companies already earning their valuations through demonstrated cash flows versus those still dependent on future promises, creating opportunities in companies with proven business models.

Strong corporate earnings and continued investment into AI infrastructure have provided meaningful support for domestic equities, reinforcing confidence in market leaders' continued growth.

The forthcoming Q2 earnings season will be pivotal, with investors demanding evidence that AI expenditure is converting into revenues, margins and cash flow.

Markets repriced away from worst-case energy-supply outcomes as tanker traffic partially normalized, alternative export routes were utilized, and strategic reserves were released.

Market Posture: NEUTRAL

The shift from smartphone image sensors to physical AI applications in autonomous vehicles and robotics represents a major growth opportunity for Sony's sensor business.

Rebuilding of global strategic and industrial oil inventories will take years and will add incremental oil demand during that process, supporting long-life offshore energy supplies critical to energy security.

The US and Iran announced an interim peace agreement in June, opening a 60-day negotiation period that eases concerns over conflict and allows toll-free passage through the Strait of Hormuz, lowering future inflation risks.

Public market M&A activity where U.S. and other strategically positioned buyers use low-cost equity capital to acquire international platforms, seizing on the disconnect between listed and private market values.

The rapid acceleration in enterprise demand for Agentic AI and expanding Large Language Model (LLM) capabilities triggered with the launch of Clawdbot earlier in the year set in motion a frenzy for AI capital investment.

Expected normalization away from speculative momentum-driven markets toward fundamentals-based investing, similar to the period following the 2021 mania.

Artificial Intelligence adoption is reshaping business models, workforces, and societal resilience, creating unprecedented opportunities across the value chain from infrastructure to applications. Temasek is positioning to capture this through investments and internal transformation.

Federal Reserve policy reaction function in an environment where inflation is running well above target will determine whether the economy shifts towards a disinflationary trend-like pace or a stagflationary/recessionary outcome.

Massive capital investment plans to build out vast AI data centers are supporting elevated demand for GPUs, CPUs, memory chips, cooling systems, and power management equipment.

TSMC's release of its 2-nanometer generation of semiconductor chips designed to be faster and more power-efficient for AI and high-performance computing customers provides improved demand visibility into 2027 and is expected to improve pricing power relative to the 3nm generation.

Improving prospects for a Middle East ceasefire and renewed enthusiasm for artificial intelligence supported risk sentiment.

Established digital leaders like Amazon, Meta, and Netflix investing heavily in AI to widen their competitive moats while trading at 30-50% lower valuations than semiconductor businesses.

Pent-up demand for automation equipment after years of underspending is beginning to materialize as uncertainties around interest rates, tariffs, and conflicts improve.

Enterprises moving from AI experimentation to large-scale deployment should increase demand for software enabling governance, security, and efficient management of AI applications.

Brazilian interest-rate cuts expected to benefit holdings like B3, though timing has required more patience than expected.

If the Iran ceasefire holds, macro pressures could abate, allowing end markets to strengthen, inflationary cost pressures to fade, and sentiment to improve across South-East Asian markets.

Further capacity expansions at leading edge foundries and memory semiconductor companies driving demand for capital equipment.

Ground-breaking advances in AI have reignited interest across technology, and these opportunities will take years if not decades to play out, as the fund continues to believe we are in the early innings of many powerful secular growth trends.

AI adoption expanding across industries may strengthen competitive positioning for companies with valuable proprietary data, deep customer relationships, or mission-critical products.

Anticipated upgrade of Vietnam within the FTSE family of market indices increased investor interest in Vietnamese equities.

Market normalization away from the AI-only trade could drive multiple expansion for quality compounders currently trading at depressed valuations.

US hyperscalers raising collective capex guidance for 2026 to $700 billion, reinforcing investor confidence that the AI infrastructure buildout remains largely unaffected by geopolitical disruptions.

US hyperscalers raising collective capex guidance for 2026 to $700 billion, reinforcing investor confidence that AI infrastructure buildout remains largely unaffected by geopolitical events.

A ceasefire near quarter end eased concerns about a broader regional conflict and helped improve investor sentiment.

Global build-out of AI digital infrastructure requiring data centers, power, and high-efficiency cooling plumbing.

Continued investment in infrastructure, defense, and industrial capacity in Europe is creating attractive opportunities beneath the modest macro growth surface.

The rapid acceleration of agentic AI globally is driving exponential token consumption, requiring hyperscalers to continue massive capex in data centers.

Robust projected economic GDP growth in Indonesia (5.0%), Malaysia (4.9%), and Philippines (4.5%) alongside rapid consumer consumption.

Massive electricity demand driven by AI infrastructure and data centers, creating a structural tailwind for traditional and nuclear energy producers.

A structural shift in financial exchange liquidity from futures trading to options trading.

A reversion of market currents where speculative narratives exhaust themselves and investors return to prioritizing traditional valuations and balance-sheet resilience.

Stabilization of global oil prices following agreements between Iran and the United States, providing a supportive backdrop for emerging market investor sentiment.

Implementation and durable truce under the preliminary US-Iran accord leading to sustained reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, reduction in energy risk premia, and easing of headline inflation expectations.

Market Posture: CONSTRUCTIVE

The closure of the Strait of Hormuz... resulting in a significant drawdown of global oil inventories... This should result in elevated commodity prices as the tanker flows resume.

Strongest early-stage companies transitioning from superficial AI demonstrations to measurable business outcomes.

Market Posture: CONSTRUCTIVE

Widening short-term corporate spreads providing attractive reinvestment opportunities for maturing short-duration high-quality bonds.

Signs of property price stabilization and easing deflationary pressure in China.

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Market Posture: NEUTRAL

Potential reopening of the Strait of Hormuz which would normalize global LNG and crude shipping flows.

Prospects of stabilizing inflation in emerging markets and anticipated interest rate cuts in the U.S.

Onset of the Iran war and its cascading effects across global markets, leading to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and oil peaking over $120/bbl.

De-escalation in the US-Iran geopolitical conflict.

Market Posture: NEUTRAL

Rapid advancement of agentic AI platforms like Anthropic's Claude and Google's Gemini, causing concerns over business model disruption in traditional software.

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Market Posture: CONSTRUCTIVE

Acceleration of a macro productivity cycle powered by automation, digitalization, and artificial intelligence, echoing historical booms of the 1960s and 1990s.

A continuing contraction of the valuation discount of public REITs relative to general equities, driven by improving fundamentals in key property sectors.

Future Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, which would reduce bank loan yields and support duration-heavy high-yield portfolios.

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China's April 2024 nine-point corporate governance guidelines explicitly endorsed shareholder returns through share buybacks for the first time with formal CCP blessing.

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Should fundamentals such as high ROA and strong balance sheets regain traction as a main driver of investment, there is substantial room for high-quality foreign SMID and Emerging Market SMID stocks to rebound.

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Europe signaled progress on fiscal stimulus and reform measures with investment flows into the region increasing

Market Posture: CONSTRUCTIVE

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Market Posture: BULLISH

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Market Posture: NEUTRAL

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A potential shift in US trade policy negotiations to reduce ultimate tariff burdens, which would bring significant equity market relief.

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President Trump's monumental change in trade policy may trigger a corresponding sea change in capital markets as an inflection point catalyst.

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Market Posture: CAUTIOUS

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Long-term economic growth and corporate earnings expansion across developed and emerging Asian economies.

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Market Posture: CONSTRUCTIVE

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Market Posture: CAUTIOUS

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A potential reversion to historical book value averages for international listed real estate, which could drive up to 40% upside across the sector.

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The structural technological revolution driven by AI, which continues to drive corporate efficiency, capital efficiency, and market gains.

A potential shift in market focus back to valuations, closing the record valuation spread between disciplined value strategies and expensive benchmarks.

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Unprecedented foreign direct investment (FDI) flows into Malaysia, especially in electronics, data centers, and semiconductors.

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Global central bank easing biases and accommodative fiscal policies injecting ample liquidity into financial markets.

Market Posture: BULLISH

U.S. policy shifts including potential corporate tax cuts, deregulation, and protectionist tariff implementation under the incoming administration.

Strong economic growth and financial sector improvement in India.

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Market Posture: CAUTIOUS

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Global central bank interest rate cuts providing monetary tailwinds for emerging market currencies and growth assets

Market Posture: NEUTRAL

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Potential central bank interest rate cuts driving market momentum toward speculative and lower-quality equities.

Widespread integration of hardware-level AI features driving replacement cycles in smartphones and PCs.

Potential stabilization of the Chinese property market through increased government policy support and social housing acquisition initiatives.

Potential Federal Reserve interest rate cuts later in 2024 providing support for growth equities.

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China's ambitious plans to integrate Hong Kong with the Guangdong–Hong Kong–Macao Greater Bay Area will result in greater demand for public housing, directly supporting construction businesses.

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Inherent tax-deferral benefits of long-term compounding, acting as an interest-free loan.

Market Posture: NEUTRAL

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Furthermore, the current administration is the most pro-business since Ronald Reagan, creating a favorable environment for future growth.

Potential Federal Reserve interest rate reductions alleviating bank deposit pressure and reducing mark-to-market balance sheet losses

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Sustained revenue and free cash flow growth across enterprise technology and global digital commerce compounders.

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Tokyo Stock Exchange (TSE) requiring companies to disclose capital efficiency improvement plans, especially if trading below 1x book value.

An end to the current period of macroeconomic malaise and normalization of the inverted yield curve.

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Expected Fed rate cuts following one final rate hike of 25 basis points in 2023.

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Formation of a non-military, civilian-led government in Thailand.

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Market Posture: CONSTRUCTIVE

Consolidation of the European airline sector, driving weaker players out and enabling rational pricing for low-cost leaders.

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Consolidation trends and M&A activity within the copper mining industry due to supply constraints.

Market Posture: CAUTIOUS

Price increases, ad-supported subscription tiers, and measures like password-sharing restrictions are expected to boost average revenue per user (ARPU) and accelerate DTC streaming profitability.

A definitive peak in US inflation that triggers falling domestic interest rates, leading to a weaker US dollar and expanding multiples across international markets.

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